I don't want anyone from the Bulls except Hinrich if we get him cheap enough or Rose. I wouldn't touch Deng, Noah and any of their other scrubs. Most are over paid and getting worse ever year.
You are talking about a Rookie. In that case, you really haven't the slightest idea one way or the other. Bayless is not a rookie. He is a player we are hoping can develop the skill set Portland needs. Further, there was a great deal of evidence in college that Rose would be a good NBA player. The same cannot be said about Bayless unfortunately. Also, I don't really like Lee all that much. I think he has proven he can get numbers on a crappy team. He has also proven he can't guard a mailbox. In this case I believe the chances for Rose to be good are high enough and his ceiling is far enough above Lee that I wouldn't make that move. If you replaced Lee with an All Star power forward things might be different. Hinrich and Deng are more proven then Rudy, so I still would be.
I hope you are right about Bayless, since he isn't going to be traded anytime soon. At the very least we know few players will try harder to be successful the Bayless. As for Noah, you are flat out wrong. He is a very good NBA player, and will only get better. He may never make an All Star team, but he is going to get a big paycheck when he becomes a free agent.
Bayless is pretty similar to a rookie. He doesn't have rookie status, but he barely played last season. You mean he didn't play enough years? Because he certainly showed a lot of talent in his one college season. If it's a sample size issue you're talking about, then that's a worthwhile point though I think he's shown enough to validate him as a high-level prospect, even if not a Rose-level prospect. But neither Hinrich nor Noah are All Star level, so why would I use an All Star in my example? My point is that it silly to always take proven over potential. If the "proven" is proven okay-a-hood and the "potential" is star-level, that would be an awful decision. You're misunderstanding me. Preferring to give up Rudy instead of Bayless is picking potential over proven.
Did you guys see this in the ESPN article: I would say no to Bayless going in, but I can't imagine KP would have as much a problem with the other three. If Chicago is stuck on Bayless it isn't happening. But, if they would take one of the others . . .
It isn't so simple. Bayless has potential to fill a real need for the team. Namely starting point guard. Rudy, on the other hand, will always be the backup to Roy (baring KP completely fucking the pooch this summer). So Rudy's value to the team is not as high as Bayless. Simple as that.
Wouldn't it be nice if Rudy could convert to PG? He has the vision, but the handle and defense are probably never going to be there. I also love Rudy, but wonder if it makes sense to keep him if you are not going play Brandon at the 3. At some point you have to decide who you can keep and who you can't, and get as much value as you can from those you can't.
Yes, that was MY point. It's not so simple as "proven vs. potential." Need, perceived amount of upside, ability of other player, etc, complicate the decision. Thus my disagreeing with dealing Bayless for Noah "because Noah is more proven." It's not so simple.
Bayless is an SG. Maybe a combo guard at best. If the Bulls want him, it's only because he was a 11th pick (basically mid first rounder) who doesn't make a lot ($2M) and who plays a position the Bulls lost depth at and would be losing talent at both guard positions by making this deal (Gordon left for nothing, big downgrade to Blake). The Bulls are shopping Thomas, not Noah. I doubt they want to part with their starting C. I don't see them trading for Boozer only to play him at C because there is nobody else. Hinrich has been a starting G in this league until last season. His injury set him back and the Bulls didn't change their lineup when get came back. He's good enough that the Bulls played him a lot at SF in 3 guard rotations just to get him out there. He's a stud on defense, on the ball. Frankly, Blake may be the better pure pass-first PG, but you're getting an upgrade at everything else.
I don't think Noah will get much of a contract. I'm sure somebody will offer him something look Frye is going to get a decent offer even. I watched Noah many times even summer league and am not impressed at all.
Bayless has a ton of talent and a freak athlete. Other fan bases were calling Jermaine O'Neal garbage his last year in Portland because he was young player we brought along slowly, thus, the not-so-compelling stat line. Hinrich is barely an upgrade. Not enough to give up a prospect like Bayless, that's for damn sure.
This is a complicated transaction because Portland is being asked to pay value (Bayless) going to Utah (Thomas). This might be one of those transactions that doesn't work because you can't get the right balance between the three teams. Blake and Outlaw aren't enough (I guess), and Bayless is too much. There isn't much in between.
You'd be giving up cap space and Bayless for Hinrich. If it were just a talent proposition, Portland is a HUGE winner in that deal. Hinrich is quite proven and quite good. Bayless isn't. EDIT: Frankly I'm inclined to believe the Bulls are not talking this kind of deal at all. Giving up Hinrich means a guard rotation of Rose, Pargo and... Aaron Gray? Taking back even Bayless' salary along with the $12M isn't feasible (125% rule). Thomas would have to be included from the Bulls POV because $12M in and $9M out puts the Bulls $3M more over the LT threshold (S2 has them $800K over as-is, but they can cut a guy or two from the end of the bench to get under. With Thomas going out in the deal, the Bulls net would be -$3M, barely enough to absorb Bayless' salary. So from that POV, it makes sense.
Bayless is unproven but has a lot of potential. We've been burned by this once and this deal is EXACTLY like this trade: Bayless didn't do much in his rookie year because the plan was to bring him along slowly. Kirk Hinrich is barely an upgrade. There is no getting around that. He's nothing special and definitely not a player to put us over the top.
A blazer fan on realgm supposedly has a friend that saw Steve Blake at PDX waiting for a flight to Chicago. And Casey said "someone interesting" was arriving from Charlotte, but don't know what became of that.
Maybe. If it were Bayless for Hinrich even (no extra salary) I think it would already be done. But, $8M of cap space is very valuable these days. There is no way to remove that from the value. The other unknown is how Bayless will improve this summer. He is on the early part of his learning/growth curve. I think there is a greater than 50% chance that Bayless will eventually be better than Hinrich is right now. But, when that happens no one can know. Like I said above. Bayless for Hinrich = Maybe. Bayless + $8M cap space for Hinrich = too much. Would Hinrich be worth Turkoglu + Bayless? or how about B. Gordon + Bayless?
