Business Tries to Stop San Diego's Minimum Wage Hike

Discussion in 'Blazers OT Forum' started by Denny Crane, Aug 21, 2014.

  1. andalusian

    andalusian Season - Restarted

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    This is a very high-level aggregate - so industrial in this case means not residential.

    More specific retail space info, as of July 2014, county wide:

    Sale:

    Total SF available for sale - Y-to-Y : -1.3%
    Asking price, Y-to-Y : +9.8% (county), +14.1% (City)
    Sale prices, Y-to-Y : +9.3%
    Profile views, (demand) : +4.0%


    Rent:

    Asking rent, Y-to-Y : +3.1%
    Number of spaces, Y-to-Y : -1.0%
    Retail profile views (lease, demand), Y-to-Y : +11.5%
    Total SF available, lease - -11.1%

    I would say that the price of real estate is probably as big an issue as anything else, yet we seem to see more demand and less supply - so, again, it seems to me that you are still giving us anecdotal evidence, and in retail this can be very location specific.
     
  2. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Staples closed a big store recently, too. Trader Joe's is moving in; not sure who's taking their old storefront. Right next to the current Trader Joe's is a Woolworth's size (big!) empty storefront. Across the street are 4 or 5 empty storefronts in a row.

    The foot traffic is excellent in these locations.
     
  3. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Let them eat cake!

    Glad someone anointed you to decide what's critical and what's not. To the store owner and workers, they probably feel their jobs are critical.
     
  4. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    http://www.cassidyturley.com/Deskto...2326&fileName=Retail Trend Report JC 7-24.pdf

    [​IMG]

    Less anecdotal.
     
  5. andalusian

    andalusian Season - Restarted

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    Short term hiccup driven it seems by some big retailers (no mom and pop stores) relocating to more modest stores (per the report you provided).

    I am also not sure if they include the under construction part - which shows a massive growth in new retail space developed -

    Under Construction SF 76K 581K

    anyway, the very same report has the following:

    Countywide total vacancy for all center types, including sublease space, was 5.4% in the first half of 2014 compared to 6.7% a year ago.

    So - even if there was a temporary hiccup because of timing of relocation of large furniture stores and mega groceries - the report still seems to be positive overall... - I also think that this could be seasonal - see that last year's 1st half net absorbtion was twice the loss compared to this year, and yet we have a smaller vacancies percentage.
     
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2014
  6. barfo

    barfo triggered obsessive commie pinko boomer maniac Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Probably they do (although they'd be quite wrong, a marine memorabilia shop isn't critical under any reasonable definition).

    But, there's no actual evidence that those jobs would go away if the minimum wage was raised. Perhaps all the burger flippers in San Diego would spend the extra cash they get from the higher wage on marine memorabilia, and the shop would have to hire another 5 people to keep up with demand.

    barfo
     
  7. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Half a year is a hiccup. I see.

    [​IMG]
     
  8. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Every job is critical, barfo.

    or let them eat cake.

    That is your attitude.
     
  9. barfo

    barfo triggered obsessive commie pinko boomer maniac Staff Member Global Moderator

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    To the individual employee, sure. To the economy, not so much.

    barfo
     
  10. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    It's OK, andalusian. Once the higher minimum wage kicks in, the numbers will be even worse.

    Going back a year.

    http://www.cassidyturley.com/news/p...picking_up_speed_cassidy_turley_report_shows_

    According to the Cassidy Turley study, the surge helped offset 377,971 square feet of negative retail absorption in the first six months of the year. As a result, San Diego County recorded 222,844 square feet of positive retail activity in 2013 – a pace that still exceeds the annual average of 211,700 square feet in the post-recession years of 2010 through 2012.

    “Assuming the economy continues to grow at a moderate rate and consumer spending does not lose momentum, the San Diego retail market is a year away from transitioning into a long-awaited growth mode,” said Phil Lyons, CCIM and Managing Director in the San Diego office of Cassidy Turley. “Restaurants, grocery stores, wireless, electronics, fitness and sporting goods tenants are expected to account for the majority of leasing activity in 2014.”

    Over the past four years, the San Diego County retail market has absorbed 860,000 square feet, recovering 72% of the 1.2 million square feet that was returned to the market in 2009, the worst year in the recent recession. “As a result, vacancy rates have decreased for all center types, which is good news for area landlords,” said Mr. Lyons.

    (so out of the last 6 quarters, 4 have been ones that are negative... which is the hiccup?)
     
  11. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    You guys argue about the strangest shit.

    Who cares why Denny's favorite Hooters closed. Instead of arguing with him over it why not just show some sympathy?
     
  12. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    I don't have a dog in this fight but CassidyTurley.com using Cassidy Turley as a source is rather hilarious. "CNN asked CNN which is the best cable news network and they said hands down it's CNN."
     
  13. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Dude, it's a press release. They discuss the results of the study.

    sheesh

    Now I do have a dog in this fight.
     
  14. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    Hahahahaha!
     
  15. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Look, the point is that San Diego is having troubles with the small retailers staying in business and the city council just made it harder for them to succeed.

    Much to barfo's distress, the facts aren't so good for his wrong side of the argument again.

    http://econweb.tamu.edu/jmeer/Meer_West_Minimum_Wage.pdf

    The voluminous literature on minimum wages offers little consensus on the extent to which a wage floor impacts employment. For both theoretical and econometric reasons, we argue that the effect of the minimum wage should be more apparent in new employment growth than in employment levels. In addition, we conduct a simulation showing that the common practice of including state-specific time trends will attenuate the measured effects of the minimum wage on employment if the true effect is in fact on the rate of job growth. Using three separate state panels of administrative employment data, we find that the minimum wage reduces net job growth, primarily through its effect on job creation by expanding establishments. These effects are most pronounced for younger workers and in industries with a higher proportion of low-wage workers.
     
  16. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    I'm against anything that closes Hooters and puts well endowed women out of work.

    Have there been any protests? Preferably with wet t-shirts?
     
  17. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Not just hooters. Moondoggies (a dog's favorite place, no doubt).

    And Staples and quite a few other places that were here for a decade+ and survived the Pelosi/Reid economic crash.
     
  18. maxiep

    maxiep RIP Dr. Jack

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    Huh? They're a brokerage firm. Brokerage firms use numbers generated by their research department or from a service like CoStar.
     
  19. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    Why don't you just stay out of this. You're a well known Hooter hater.
     
  20. maxiep

    maxiep RIP Dr. Jack

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    I think we should raise the minimum wage to $25.00/hour. That way, everyone would have a Living Wage.
     

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