Bust a Scoot?

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Portland2014, Oct 16, 2023.

  1. Phatguysrule

    Phatguysrule Well-Known Member

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    Scoot is in top 8 for PPG (rookies) and leads all rookies (*actually 2nd*) in assists per game...

    I'm not sure I expected much more than that from a young point guard.
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2023
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  2. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    he's 2nd in assists behind Keyonte George
     
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  3. Phatguysrule

    Phatguysrule Well-Known Member

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    Ah, thanks. The link I was looking at must not have been updated. I was looking for a more reliable link but it didn't turn up on a quick Google search.
     
  4. SharpesTriumph

    SharpesTriumph Well-Known Member

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    His gross scoring or assist numbers aren't the problem.

    It's the horrific efficiency. And not just on the long range shot which yes is very concerning for a 6'2" player but something that was totally expected to take time.

    He has been ineffective everywhere scoring, inside, mid range, on the break.

    Also doesn't look athletic at the NBA starting PG level.

    I'm not giving up and hope we see improvements. But I'd certainly sell his stock if someone was offering draft day prices.
     
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  5. BlazerWookee

    BlazerWookee UNTILT THE DAMN PINWHEEL!

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    He waits until the after lawn maintenance yelp reviews are posted.
     
  6. SharpeScooterShooter

    SharpeScooterShooter SharpeShooter

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    Where in the hell did that quote come from? LMFAO!!!! :)
     
  7. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    He's 6'3 barefoot.

     
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  8. blazerfan11

    blazerfan11 Well-Known Member

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    Thanks! I think it's worth posting the whole thing here.


    Official rookie heights and their comparison to the pre-draft heights (Brandon Miller and Scoot Henderson only have a 4 inch difference, down from the pre-draft 7 inches)
    [​IMG]
    The NBA has updated their official heights for all players. The one great thing is that the NBA currently uses a standardized system, where everyone is measured without shoes and confirmed by an independent, third party.

    This means everyone is on the same scale, and we won’t see situations where one player is measured in shoes/another one isn’t. We also won’t see any exaggerated heights where a team just adds a few inches to a player’s height.

    In my opinion, height doesn’t matter that much. However, it clearly matters because it’s an often talked about attribute. We even have threads from last year where people here tried to predict whose height was clearly off (sorry to the majority here, but it wasn’t Cam Whitmore). A few inches for someone could make a marginal difference, as I’ve seen countless threads saying “if so and so we’re 2 inches taller, etc.”. Wingspan is what matters more, but the NBA doesn’t officially release that for all players, so we often use height as a substitute that has a decent correlation.

    You can find each player’s height on their official NBA profile page or on their ESPN profile.

    Here’s some notable names and their official/pre-draft heights.

    (1) Victor Wembanyama: 7’4” (pre-draft was often cited as 7’3” or 7’4 for no change). His height was quoted pretty accurately (except those who said he was 7’5”, but I think they knew that was in shoes). He even said he was 7’3.x” barefoot pre-draft, and it rounded up to 7’4” for official measurements.

    (2) Brandon Miller: 6’7” (pre-draft was a consensus 6’9” for -2 inches). I’ve always known Miller was closer to 6’7” than 6’9” having watched him live and standing next to some of the other players (including Bradley Beal while Miller was in HS, as Beal has an official measurement), and this confirms it. Alabama clearly was measuring him in shoes and probably added another 0.5-1 inches. This doesn’t change his offensive ability since his make or break skill is shooting, which isn’t really related to 2 inches. However, it does decrease his defensive ceiling, as his wingspan clearly isn’t that of PG13 (and you’ll never see the absurd steal rates PG13 had).

    (3) Scoot Henderson: 6’3” (pre-draft was a consensus 6’2” for the super rare +1 inches). Normally, it’s hard for a prospect to gain an inch going to the NBA, but Scoot did due to the fact he played in the G league. In the G league, all measurements are already barefoot. So he was never going to lose anything in height going to the NBA. He probably then grew like a half an inch and is now 6’3”.

    -The interesting thing is that the pre-draft gap of Miller and Henderson was a consensus 7 inches (6’9” vs 6’2”), but the official gap is only 4 inches (6’7” vs 6’3”). I’m also told their wingspans (can’t officially give you a source on this so you’ll just have to trust me) is also quite similar, with Miller only having 1-2 inches on Henderson. This could play a role in how their careers turn out, as a 3 inch swing in height is non-trivial. With that said, as I mentioned before, height is only a very small piece of the puzzle so it’s not something that will ultimately be the deciding factor. If it was me, I actually would predict both Miller and Henderson underperform their draft positions (as in either will be a top 3 pick in a re-draft), but that’s a different post.

    (4, 5) Amen and Ausar Thompson: 6’6” (6’7” pre-draft by OTE for -1 inches). Clearly, OTE measures all their players in shoes.

    (6) Anthony Black: 6’7” (6’7” pre-draft for no change). No change. I actually think Anthony Black probably actually was only 6’6” in college but actually grew an inch so far in the NBA. Regardless, his height is the same as pre-draft.

    (7) Bilal Coulibaly: 6’8” (6’8” pre-draft for no change). I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s not even done growing. Giannis grew a few inches in his first two years, so it’s possible he can add another inch at his age.

    (8) Jarace Walker: 6’7” (6’8” pre-draft for -1 inches). Walker is actually not that tall for a PF, but he’s got a long wingspan (measured officially at 7’2”), which gives him defensive potential. He’s also not in the rotation at all, which is pretty rare for a top 8 pick.

    (9) Taylor Hendricks: 6’9” (6’9” pre-draft for no change)

    (10) Cason Wallace: 6’3” (6’4” pre-draft for -1 inches). Kentucky always measures in shoes, so you can deduct 1-2 inches from any Kentucky prospect. It’s important to note that means DJ Wagner is only like 6’2”.

    Other notables

    (12) Dereck Lively II: 7’1” (7’1” pre-draft for no change). He’s shocked everyone, including me, with his start in the NBA so far

    (16) Keyonte George: 6’4” (6’4” pre-draft for no change). I’m guessing almost everyone assumed he wasn’t a true 6’4” in college, but it turns out he’s actually that height (perhaps he also grew an inch). Essentially everyone got him wrong, as George is actually one of the best PG prospects in his class, as pre-draft, he was labeled as a scoring 2-guard.

    (17) Jalen Hood-Schifino: 6’5” (6’6” in college for -1 inch)

    (19) Brandin Podziemski: 6’4” (6’5” in college for -1 inch). He said in his Twitter profile in college he was a true 6’5” barefoot, which means he exaggerated lol. He’s off to a great start when he plays, which definitely makes the pure analytics community smile because he was a true analytics pick. However, he also gave himself an extra inch, that probably doesn’t matter in the large scope of things.

    (20) Cam Whitmore: 6’7” (6’7” in college for no change). He was the most popular answer last season in the thread that asked who’s lying about their height (you can see the old posts here if you don’t believe me). There were people he was claiming he was 6’5” or even 6’4”. In reality, he had already been measured 6’6” by FIBA (barefoot) in HS, so there was no way he was ever going to be shorter than that. He probably grew like half an inch since then, and is 6’7”.

    (25) Nick Smith Jr: 6’2” (6’5” pre-draft for -3 inches). This should have been the answer to the above post. He lost a ridiculous 3 inches from his college listed height. This means no only was he measured in shoes, but Arkansas then gave him an additional 1-2 inches. It was quite clear that he looked significantly shorter than AB when on the court, and pictures of him next to Bradley Beal (AAU sponsor) showed him clearly 2 inches than him, but Cam Whitmore was the popular answer. This actually matters a lot, as he’s a 6’2” SG, which means he’s practically never going to be a long-term full time NBA starter.

    You can look at the whole list yourself by just comparing their official NBA profiles with the pre-draft profiles.

    The more important thing to note is that for evaluating future prospects:

    1. G league heights are most accurate because they are barefoot and NBA standard. Any prospect in the G league should not have their heights questioned.

    2. College heights can be barefoot or in shoes. Some also can be exaggerated. There is anywhere from a 0-3 inch difference between a college player’s height and their true height, and that depends on the college.

    3. OTE measures all their prospects in shoes.

    4. International heights are actually fairly accurate. FIBA measures players barefoot, which is also the NBA standard (which is why we know MJ was officially only 6’4.75”).
     
  9. blazerfan11

    blazerfan11 Well-Known Member

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    Are NBA heights usually listed with shoes or no shoes height ? I assumed a roster was always listed with shoes heights.
    If that is the case, Scoot should be listed as 6'4".
     
  10. OR-84

    OR-84 Rip City Baby!!! GO BLAZERS!!!

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    It was the first game he wore them that Brooke talked about why they went with the goggles due to new contacts during the pregame discussion. That is my memory of it anyways.
     
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  11. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    With shoes he should be listed at 6'4, correct.
     
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  12. Idog1976

    Idog1976 Well-Known Member

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    That's funny I see Scoot as pretty athletic, he just doesn't seem to use it as often as he should. Was every analyst just straight lying before the draft, or hadn't watched any games, or how is that explained? The entire media was saying he was Westbrook or Rose level athleticism, how could they get that wrong to the point of what you wrote? I also don't see that. I see extreme bursts of speed, but it seems he is off balance alot or unwilling to put on the jets. I didn't watch the last game, I'm basing it on all the prior games.
     
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  13. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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    I remember everyone raving about OJ Mayo. "Super athletic" they said. Same thing with Glenn "Big Dog" Robinson. I don't think most people are good judges of what counts as "very athletic" in the NBA.
     
  14. DaLong

    DaLong Well-Known Member

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    Thomas Robinson comes to mind. Or even Ayton or possibly Oden...they were hyped as some of the most athletic kids ever in college.
     
  15. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    wait...wut?

    the NBA league office is sending people team-to-team to team and making 'official no-shoes' measurements? Since when?

    where is that reddit guy getting his information?
     
  16. MickZagger

    MickZagger Well-Known Member

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    Getting your shot capped consistently on stuff you would’ve scored on in the g league can have that effect on you
     
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  17. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    I don’t know but he looks about 2 inches taller than Dame and Dame measured 6’1.75 before his draft.
    upload_2023-12-1_23-56-4.png
     
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  18. blazerfan11

    blazerfan11 Well-Known Member

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    What if you told "anyone" that the Blazers were on an 8-game losing streak without Scoot, and his return suddenly transformed them into a winning team?

    1-8 without Scoot , 3-1 with Scoot. Shit team to good team.

    Anyone must be blind not seeing the turnaround in games the Scoot Crew has brought in the last 4 games.

    Took deficits early in games and turned them into leads. In Cleveland, The Scoot Crew did that in the 3rd quarter.

    Against the Cavs, the Blazers were behind by 8 points when Scoot came into the game, and when he left the Blazers were up by 8.

    Is anyone watching the games and caring about winning them? What the fuck.
     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2023
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  19. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    This might be a great example of correlation does not imply causation
     
  20. SharpesTriumph

    SharpesTriumph Well-Known Member

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    Scoot being out correlated to Brogdon being out and Shae being limited.

    +/- is dependent on the play of 10 player. So Scoot has a 10% impact. It can have some relevance over extremely large sample sizes but is known to be the noisiest of all advanced stats.

    Not real impressed by your 4 game sample of Scoot winning as a lower minute backup. Be shocked if the Blazers keep winning but sure let's see what happens.
     
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