Climate change and wildfire in the Pacific Northwest

Discussion in 'Blazers OT Forum' started by Eastoff, Jul 22, 2014.

  1. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    May 24, 2007
    Messages:
    72,959
    Likes Received:
    10,633
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Never lost a case
    Location:
    Boston Legal
    For the nth time, they're not using these models to predict the future. They are modeling a physical thing. They can physically change the bumpers, airbag positions, etc., on the real thing and see what happens in the crash test.

    The models only help them put the jigsaw puzzle together and generate the blueprint for the factories.
     
  2. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    May 24, 2007
    Messages:
    72,959
    Likes Received:
    10,633
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Never lost a case
    Location:
    Boston Legal
    The process of observing things has a lot of influence, too.

    Alzheimers.

    People have lost their minds with old age for millennia. It was called dementia, misdiagnosed.

    It wasn't until 1977 that doctors basically agreed what Alzheimers truly is and the number of diagnoses has skyrocketed. Not because there are more cases, but because we are better able to detect it.

    [​IMG]

    Hey, kinda looks like one of those global warming prediction graphs. Maybe alzheimers causes global warming.

    :lol:
     
  3. Further

    Further Guy

    Joined:
    Sep 20, 2008
    Messages:
    11,098
    Likes Received:
    4,037
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Stuff doer
    Location:
    Place
    Bullshit, I actually have a friend who does exactly this type of modeling for Ford, and yes, they look at his models and change very major things based on those models. One of the biggest examples is dealing with body design for aerodynamics. First they build a lot of models on the computer, moving vents and mirrors and bumps and such, to ascertain the most aerodynamic results, then more modeling some physical and some computer, then they build a shell and bring that to the wind tunnel (another model) to test and make more changes, then finally they build the end results.
     
  4. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    May 24, 2007
    Messages:
    72,959
    Likes Received:
    10,633
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Never lost a case
    Location:
    Boston Legal
    What are you calling bullshit on? :)

    Modeling aerodynamics is trivial as well. And it doesn't have to be that accurate.
     
  5. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2008
    Messages:
    117,057
    Likes Received:
    115,327
    Trophy Points:
    115
    Denny is funny, doesn't believe humans can do anything that affects the environment, lives in a place that imports 80% of their water.
     
  6. barfo

    barfo triggered obsessive commie pinko Staff Member Global Moderator

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2008
    Messages:
    32,862
    Likes Received:
    22,997
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Blazer OT board
    Doesn't matter, because they can't model the spastic lashes of Denny's buggy whip as he leans out the window shouting at the oncoming traffic.

    barfo
     
  7. MarAzul

    MarAzul LongShip

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2008
    Messages:
    21,370
    Likes Received:
    7,281
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Life is good!
    Location:
    Near Bandon Oregon
    Man this is getting bazaar. I can't see the connection of CFD modeling and a global warming model. I do see the similarities of the global warming graph and the graph of the interglacial cycle.
    It looks to me like the only difference between this current cycle and the last one if that humans are in this cycle. But they sure as hell did not cause it to be right on schedule.
     
  8. NewsSource

    NewsSource Banned User BANNED

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2014
    Messages:
    474
    Likes Received:
    5
    Trophy Points:
    0
    That sounds like they are modeling a behavior, but then testing that behavior out in a controlled setting to prove the accuracy of the model. After the actual physical test, they then tweak the models and engineering specs.

    I think you agreed with Denny Crane, and don't even know it.
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2014
  9. barfo

    barfo triggered obsessive commie pinko Staff Member Global Moderator

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2008
    Messages:
    32,862
    Likes Received:
    22,997
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Blazer OT board
    Maybe that's a good place to start, then. CFD is in fact a big part of global climate modeling.

    barfo
     
  10. MarAzul

    MarAzul LongShip

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2008
    Messages:
    21,370
    Likes Received:
    7,281
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Life is good!
    Location:
    Near Bandon Oregon
    Looks like. Might even cut the CNC directions right off the CFD model.
     
  11. MarAzul

    MarAzul LongShip

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2008
    Messages:
    21,370
    Likes Received:
    7,281
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Life is good!
    Location:
    Near Bandon Oregon
    Really. Well temperature does effect viscosity, and enough drag can affect temperature. Do you have those projections?
     
  12. Sinobas

    Sinobas Banned User BANNED

    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2009
    Messages:
    14,608
    Likes Received:
    5,486
    Trophy Points:
    113
    People have come out and attributed a lot of things to "climate change" when there is no evidence that it's something that has been trending upward over a long period of time, or related to CO2 levels.

    There's no question that humans are causing increased levels of CO2, and that CO2 affects climate. But what would happen if we stopped all co2 emissions tommorow? Does anyone really know? Climate scientists decades ago believed we were heading towards another ice age, based on the former trends. If the Co2 is preventing us from going to an ice age that would actually be a good thing.
     
  13. NewsSource

    NewsSource Banned User BANNED

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2014
    Messages:
    474
    Likes Received:
    5
    Trophy Points:
    0
    May I ask what wildfires in "Republican" areas have to do with anything? What is the OP's point?
     
  14. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2008
    Messages:
    117,057
    Likes Received:
    115,327
    Trophy Points:
    115
  15. MarAzul

    MarAzul LongShip

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2008
    Messages:
    21,370
    Likes Received:
    7,281
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Life is good!
    Location:
    Near Bandon Oregon
    You get an engineer pissed off, bad shit is going to happen.
     
  16. maxiep

    maxiep RIP Dr. Jack

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2008
    Messages:
    28,254
    Likes Received:
    5,800
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Merchant Banker
    Location:
    Denver, CO & Lake Oswego, OR
    I have absolutely no idea whether our emissions are the primary driver of global warming/climate change. However, I do know that there is no amount of reduction of those emissions to which the primary polluters will agree. We could agree to curb ours dramatically and our economy would collapse because neither China nor India would agree to reduce theirs. They would take what manufacturing jobs we have left and keep running their economies on carbon-based fuels.
     
  17. MarAzul

    MarAzul LongShip

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2008
    Messages:
    21,370
    Likes Received:
    7,281
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Life is good!
    Location:
    Near Bandon Oregon
    It's worst than that. If the US stopped all emissions period, it would make very little differnce in the overall emissions. Besides that, the inter glacial cycle would continue on track if every nation ceased all emissions.
     
  18. MARIS61

    MARIS61 Real American

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2008
    Messages:
    28,007
    Likes Received:
    5,012
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    retired Yankee
    Location:
    Beautiful Central Oregon
  19. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    May 24, 2007
    Messages:
    72,959
    Likes Received:
    10,633
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Never lost a case
    Location:
    Boston Legal
    From MARIS' article:

    Fire season in West so far is below expectations

    Widespread drought across the West had forecasters expecting an above-average wildfire season this summer, which so far has not lived up to expectations.

    (Forecasters got it wrong, as usual).
     
  20. oldguy

    oldguy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2008
    Messages:
    2,817
    Likes Received:
    78
    Trophy Points:
    48
    We had a record cold spell in Oregon last winter. Doesn't that mean that warming doesn't exist?

    Go Blazers
     

Share This Page