Coming Luxury Tax implications

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by TBpup, Feb 9, 2019.

  1. hoopsjock

    hoopsjock Well-Known Member

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    I'm just sick of the excuses. The Nuggets got out of the tax before the season started. The Bucks planned ahead and got rid of two of their bad contracts (Henson and Dellavedova) to give them room for re-signing Middleton and Brogdon this summer. The Wizards were able to shed salary and get below the tax line. The Rockets got rid of Knight's contract for next year and got under the tax. The Mavs dumped Barnes. To say that teams were only interested in expiring contracts is bullshit. The only way it makes sense is if they really are willing to go as far as it takes this summer into the tax. Even that seems a little reckless though.
     
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  2. Titan

    Titan Well-Known Member

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    I am kinda glad Neil at least kept our 1st pick because we are going to need as much picks we can muster to make our expiring contracts look good compared to all the other expirings.

    Also TBpup already hit on it earlier but wish we didn’t use the stretch provisions, we would have been better to just take the hits in the past seasons.

    If Detroit fails to make the playoffs, hope they blow it up. Bucks, Raptors, Sixers all went in and don’t count out the C’s. They all can’t make the finals and some will get left behind in the semis, maybe one of them blows it up this summer. I’m hoping the Raptors blow it up.
     
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  3. Pinwheel1

    Pinwheel1 Well-Known Member

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    Sorry if this has been answered already but what happens if we do not re-sign Aminu or Curry. How much can we offer Layman and Hood?
     
  4. hoopsjock

    hoopsjock Well-Known Member

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    It depends a little bit on what the final cap number is but as of right now we'd have...

    Tax-MLE of $5.6 million - This is the max we could offer Hood (or Curry).

    Layman (assuming we offer the $1.9 million qualifying offer) can be re-signed for any amount, even a max contract, but we'd probably be deep in the tax then.

    Aminu can also be re-signed for any amount but he's unrestricted so unlike Layman we don't have a chance to match if he signs elsewhere.
     
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  5. hoopsjock

    hoopsjock Well-Known Member

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    The stretch provisions do suck but we'd be on the repeater tax clock if we didn't stretch those guys because there would have been no way to duck the tax last year. I don't know how much that matters but it would result in much larger tax payments down the road.
     
  6. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    Upon further review, there are currently $1,011,600,000 in expiring contracts at the end of next season. That is $1.011Billion with a 'B'. The Blazers have $37M of that....around 3.65%.

    Granted, they are 3.33% of the league so it comes out at about the same percentage but when you start factoring where teams are with the Luxury Tax, over the cap, etc, along with some of the number of teams with MASSIVE amounts more than they have, it is a blip.

    Neil is going to have to get creative.
     
  7. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    good work...and you also have to keep in mind there will be 1-year deals signed this summer that immediately become expiring contracts. Those type of short-term deals have been increasing since the new TV contracts

    just off the top of my head, I'm thinking without those stretch provisions, this would be Portland's 3rd straight year of paying tax. If so, then next year they'd be a repeater tax team if they went over the line. That would almost guarantee a big NYET from the Vulcans on breaching the threshold
     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2019
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  8. oldmangrouch

    oldmangrouch persona non grata

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    So, we're boned?
     
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  9. hoopsjock

    hoopsjock Well-Known Member

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    Just curious where you got the numbers from? I picked Boston randomly and it kind of depends on options picked up. Plus you have guys like Jaylen Brown who would be on the final year of their rookie deal so even though they are expiring it's not quite the same. On the flip side those numbers don't factor in anyone who signs a one year deal this summer either.
     
  10. Chris Craig

    Chris Craig Blazersland Staff Member Moderator

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    Thanks Tbpup, that's a bit of work. I guess it will depend on what teams move those players during the offseason as opposed to the trade deadline. The summer of 2020 is going to be a crazy Free agency. Too, how many teams want Griffin? Will be going after him?
     
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  11. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    I used only expiring contracts that were UFA's. Hope that helps. There were a bunch more RFA. And there will be some additional 1-year deals as well that will only add to the expiring money. But those can be more difficult to trade or not as attractive for the player. For instance, Hood was on a 1-year deal and had to waive his Bird Rights to get traded to a playoff team. So now it makes it tough for Portland to keep him even if they want to and he is relying on another team with cap space to pay him this summer.
     
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  12. Pinwheel1

    Pinwheel1 Well-Known Member

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    So is it 3 years over the salary cap or 3 years over the luxury tax? Because they did not go over the Luxury tax last year.
     
  13. Titan

    Titan Well-Known Member

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    Not if you are a free agent in 2020.
     
  14. hoopsjock

    hoopsjock Well-Known Member

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    It's 3 out of the last 4 years being over the luxury tax line. He was saying they'd be in the tax if it wasn't for the stretch provisions.

    It's hard to say though. Last year probably for sure if we don't stretch Nicholson. If we didn't stretch Varejao then we wouldn't have had as much cap space in 2016 though thus probably altering who we signed and for how much. So who knows what would've happened moving forward.
     
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  15. hoopsjock

    hoopsjock Well-Known Member

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    I'm not trying to say you did anything wrong but do you mind showing me how you got $52.4 million with 3 players for Boston? Assuming Kyrie opts out, Horford and Baynes opt in, and Hayward opts in for 2020-21 that leaves Horford and Baynes as the only non-RFA free agents in 2020. That's about $35.6 million. Am I missing someone else?
     
  16. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    The site I used for most of it showed Horford, Irving and Baynes as UFA's. Like I said, I found some errors and then gave up trying to correct them all. I'm sure there are more. It assumed player options as UFA's. It actually didn't have Marcus Morris listed as a UFA where another site did. Like I said, a bunch of inconsistencies. It was more for the bigger picture of how many ending contracts there are or could be by team.
     
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  17. hoopsjock

    hoopsjock Well-Known Member

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    Perfect! I wasn't trying to call you out if that's how it sounded, I was just curious.

    Edit: Just to be sure you weren't looking at this summer were you? Cause Morris is a UFA this summer not 2020.
     
  18. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    we were talking about not using the stretch provisions on Varejao, Nicholson, and Ezeli.

    *Blazers were about 800K under the tax line in 2016-17 but Varejao's 10M salary would have put them well over.

    * Blazers were $735.00 under the tax line last season (that has to be a record for closest margin) last year, but Nicholson's 6.6M salary + Ezeli's 1M guarantee would have put Portland well over the line

    * finally, this season Blazers are close to 8M over the tax line. Deduct the 5.1M for the stretches but add 6.6M for Nicholson

    so three years of tax meaning next season would trigger repeater tax if they were over. Like hoopsjock said, the 2016 summer might have been a little different if they didn't stretch Varejao but my guess is the only change would have been not signing Ezeli

    I wish I would have had a stretch provision around here a few years ago...it would have kept my son out of the refrigerator and my liquor cabinet
     
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  19. hoopsjock

    hoopsjock Well-Known Member

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    Nevermind, I'll just leave it, ha ha. The Blazers are at $41.4 so I'll stop trying to figure it out.
     
  20. tester551

    tester551 Well-Known Member

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    It really depends on which contracts you're talking about...

    Verejo - would've been MUCH better to take the tax hit that year. We were far below the cap.

    Ezeli - again, better to take it all in 1 season.

    Crabbe/Nicholson - better to stretch it.
     

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