When Lillard came into the league, nobody was certain where his ceiling was; many were pretty sure that, because he was a four-year college man, he was already pretty close to it. In the years he’s been in the league, however, Lillard has shown regular, almost robotically steady, improvement in efficiency. Each year, his PER has improved by about two points, from 16.4 in his rookie year, to 18.6, 20.7, and now 22.8 (so far) this year. This seems linear, but this year, it’s more impressive than that. 2012-13 - 87 players with PER 16 or higher (our baseline) 2013-14 - 53 players with PER 18 or higher (39.1% growth) 2014-15 - 35 players with PER 20 or higher (34.0% growth) 2015-16 - 17 players with PER 22 or higher (51.4% growth) (this list excludes players not eligible form the Minutes Played leaderboard, meaning no Brian Roberts with a 54.4 PER in 8 minutes) This might meet the eye-test for a lot of folks, too: this year, we’ve seen a bigger leap in Dame’s on-court game than we did last year. To make the leap from 22 PER to 24 PER, and continue the growth, he’ll have to improve from one of 17 players to one of 9 players in the league, a jump of 47.0%. And 26 PER? Another jump of 44.4%. This is not impossible; Steph Curry has taken larger leaps from a similar rookie PER (16.3) to the highest PER in modern history. Dame's average growth rate is roughly 40% a year, so it'll be a stretch goal, but one not out of reach. If Dame is our Number One, the First Option on a championship team, he’ll need to be a 26-28 PER to pull it off. At his current rate of growth, 28 PER would come when he’s 28, right in his peak years. So it’s possible. It’s going to require help, though; a better team around you as a PG means more assists, and less exposure on defense. But is also requires growth from within. A dedication to defense, an ever-expanding bag of offensive tricks. And in the modern NBA, an unlimited range from half court in. I think he can do it. I’m excited to see him try.
Steph Curry had a similar ascension during his first 4 years in the league, and then just exploded the last 2 years: I'm not saying Lillard is gonna be the next Curry, but they both share quite a few similarities: Both were drafted from smallish schools Both are 6'3" and 190 something pounds Both were drafted with concerns of being a "tweener" (i.e. questionable PG skills). Both were drafted in the same range in the mid lottery (Dame was drafted 6th in 2012, Curry drafted 7th in 2009) Both drafted as "older" rookies (Dame was 22, Curry was 21). Both considered prolific 3-point shooters right out of college. Both named a first-time All-Star in 2014. Curry has had the big advantage in shooting percentage though, shooting better from the field, 3pt, and FT than Lillard. So Dame still has a ways to go before reaching Steph's current level, but if anyone in the NBA can, I believe Lillard has a good chance as any.
On the topic of "ever-expanding bag of offensive tricks," there was a play where he went up for a 15 foot jumper, and leaned sideways during the shot to create contact with Steph Curry. Dame hit the jumper and got the call. He initiated the contact it seemed but the refs gave it to him. It was some nice trickery, very Harden-esque.
Yeah, drawing fouls like Harden or Chris Paul is definitely an area where he can expand his game. He'll never be a better shooter than Curry (simply because it's just not possible) but he seems to have a more physical style than Curry and has more potential to be that guy who gets whistles repeatedly. When Dame drew those two early fouls on Curry it really got in Curry's head, and it seemed like it was all downhill from there. Hoping he continues to develop into a hybrid of Westbrook, Parker and Curry. Not better than any of those guys at their best skills (driving, nifty interior floaters, perimeter shooting) but being a poor mans version of each to create the most complete scoring PG in the game. And defense. The GS game was the first time I thought Dame was an elite defender, at least for one night. He was out to prove a point on defense. If he played with the rage he showed last night on defense every night, he'd unarguably be the second best PG in the game.
I don't think he'll catch Curry. They've had very similar careers up to this point, but Curry has been an extremely efficient shooter since he first came into the league. Dame is a much less efficient shooter. His shooting percentages are much less than Curry, so I don't think he'll be able to hit that 30 PER area.
Quick update: his 2015-16 PER now sites at 23.1 (and likely to go up). The list of players with 23.0 PER or higher: 12 players with a PER of 23.0 or higher (65% growth) This season is special, no matter what happens after the regular season, because we now see what Lillard can do. Also interesting are his career win shares (total). In 2015-16, Lillard is on pace for about 15 Win Shares for the season. For context, only three players last year had 14.9 WS or better in 2014-15: James Harden (16.4) Chris Paul (16.1) Steph Curry (15.7)
Lillard's PER now stands at 23.5; to give some context, here's a list of players who got between a 23 and 24 in their 4th year. http://bkref.com/tiny/OZCjw
I like to get quantitative when everyone else is shooting from the hip. The shoe's on the other foot, so here's what I see: Lillard had a very mediocre floater, he's definitely fixed that. Lillard had trouble finishing, not any more. Lillard's midrange game needed improvement/needed to go to it more, he's better. Lillard could make long 3 pointers, now he's much more consistent in them. Lillard was a shoot first, shoot second, pass third PG, now he's top 10 in assists. What's next? His defense has improved, but conventional wisdom is that it needs more improvement.
He's come so far and the intangibles in terms of being a leader are off the chart. If there was one other area besides defense I'd say it was consistency. For all the occasions Dame hits #LillardTime, he is still only shooting .429 overall. That means there are many of stretches where he is 1-8 or 0-6 that offset his explosions where he goes 4-4 or 5-6 in a very short time. Of course his Effective FG% is higher than .429 due to how he shoots the '3' but think where that would be (Curry territory) if he could go 3-8 or 2-6 during his off times and then have his #LillardTime explosions. I only expect that to get better as everything else in his career has so far.
Offensively, he needs to shoot the three better than he is. < 38% with that high volume needs improvement. He has to cut down on the futile flings hoping to draw fouls, and shoot better off the dribble. I feel like this is what will take him closer to Steph Curry, and less like Kemba Walker (Kemba actually shoots the three better than Dame this year). Having better teammates should help in this regard as he will have more open space. I'm very encouraged by his steady increase in FTA. That will only help in maintaining his 25 ppg+ average. Defensively, he just needs to read picks better. 4 years in, he still gets demolished by screens at least 4-5 times a game. With Terry's defensive strategy, this just won't work. He's started this whole switching thing as a way to not get caught up by picks, but I'm predicting that his recent success in guarding bigs will be short-lived. Again, having better teammates will help here as well. There is currently no funneling in to our rim protectors... because we have no rim protectors. That should change this summer.
38% from three is (value-wise) the same as shooting 57% from two. Does he really need to improve? I'd love to see him hit 39%, but really, anything about 36% is good enough. Knowing Dame, it'll improve, though. Also, because he shoots so much from three he (and many modern players like Curry and CJ) can't be accurately measured by any one FG%; eFG% is the only way to value the shooting of these players with any sort of accuracy. Again though, I have no doubt he'll continue to improve as he learns to read opposing defenses and react. Remember when one strong PG could ruin his day? Not so much anymore.
He is 10th among PGs in TS%. About 3% difference from #2 on the list, Kyle Lowry. This % was a lot worse earlier in the year. A steady improvement in 3pt% for sure. I just feel like given his high volume, he needs to shoot that better to justify some of the attempts. Perhaps I'm nitpicking
Yeah, I definitely split Dame into Bruce Banner Dame (pre-ASG) and Incredible Hulk Dame (post-ASG) when talking about how he's doing.
Just to show it... Now, 24/7/4 is pretty dang good, like really good. But 31/5/4 in one minute less per game? EPIC.
