Dame's long 3 is a good shot

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by bobf, Dec 16, 2017.

  1. bobf

    bobf Well-Known Member

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    I would just chalk that up as variance for now. He shot 37% last year which I think is great. This year he is shooting way more long 3's, but he's down to 26%. If he stays down there for a whole season, then that's another story.

    Dame's long 3's are around 1.11 PPP assuming a pessimistic 20% ORB rate. By comparison - on 2-point shots from 6+ feet - Dame is a career 40.4%. That works out to only 0.93 PPP using the same ORB rate. That doesn't count possible free throws, but it also doesn't count turnovers either.
     
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  2. tester551

    tester551 Well-Known Member

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    I get the PPP argument as well. I just disagree with the offensive rebound assumption, & the resulting transition defense.
     
  3. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Forum Troll

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    Okay. SO Per:

    https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats.html

    The NBA league average 2pt% is .468%

    The NBA league average 3pt% is .364%

    Lets say team "A" only shoots twos and team "B" only shoots threes and each team is able to get up 100 shots in a game (simple math)

    team A makes 47 shots for a total if 94pts.

    team B makes 36 shots for a total of 108.


    Now lets narrow it down some more. How many 3pt shots does the average team take? 28.8....so 29.

    So now in reality, team A would be shooting 71 twos and 29 threes. This would equate to the following:

    71 twos at 47% shooting = 33 shots made for 66 pts. 29 threes on .36% shoot = 11 shots made for 33 points.

    This gives Team A a total of 99 points. They STILL lose to a team that only shoots 3's and can shoot the league average.

    This doesn't account for the TO's that our defense would provide as well as us probably getting up many more shots than the other team because of us shooting quick threes and them taking time to get it to the rim more.

    So with these numbers? What am I missing? What is the point of even getting to the rim?
     
  4. handiman

    handiman Well-Known Member

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    Good luck shooting 36% in a theoretical game where you only shoot from outside the line, resulting in the defense only having to guard the perimeter.
     
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  5. SIeepwalker

    SIeepwalker The lone sane poster

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    This. Also

    What's your point ? If you shoot in 5 seconds, then the other team shoots in 20, three times in a row, you still have both team shooting 3 times
     
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  6. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Forum Troll

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    Okay, but we still won by 9?

    NO. I'm not stupid enough to think a team should only shoot threes. Their percentage would drop into the teens. But it surely makes sense mathematically to have it as a strong suit to your arsenal, rather than an after thought, no?

    Point being Stotts is correct in his offensive game plan, putting emphasis on the three?
     
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  7. handiman

    handiman Well-Known Member

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    Yes, but as with all things in life, you play to your strengths and seek balance.
     
  8. rasheedfan2005

    rasheedfan2005 Well-Known Member

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    I havent got to see a game yet this season but id be more willing to let dame heave 34 footers every possesion than give meyers leonard playing time
     
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  9. Strenuus

    Strenuus Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    You must think Aminu should get 15 minutes, too, huh? ;)
     
  10. H.C.

    H.C. Well-Known Member

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    This.
    Against Houston Lillard had 9 three pointers made, some from pretty deep.
    However I remember specifically watching his first couple of three pointers being great wide open looks from 24ft and it gave him a rhythm.
    After that, the next couple were from the practice center and he was rolling all game.

    I still firmly believe Lillard would take less 30 footers if there were better players around him who demanded they be defended.
    However there are times during the game that Lillard passing to x player is just as bad as if Lillard misses an 30 footer.
     
  11. stampedehero

    stampedehero Make Your Day, a Doobies Day Staff Member Moderator

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    You must have Aced Statistics in school.
     
  12. Mediocre Man

    Mediocre Man Mr. SportsTwo

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    Youre missing defensive adjustments fo only 3 point shots.
    Youre missing the fact that the majority of 3 point shots are taken by the best 3 point shooters

    Good info though. Definitely interesting
     
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  13. Boise Blazer

    Boise Blazer Thread Lightly

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  14. Wizard Mentor

    Wizard Mentor Wizard Mentor

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    In the modern NBA, the purpose of the 2 is to set up the 3....
     
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  15. HailBlazers

    HailBlazers RipCity

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    No. No it's Not. Okay Maybe, Good Not so much.
     
  16. WillG

    WillG Well-Known Member

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    No it's a terrible shot, is usually early in the shot clock & with defense in his face.
    If he was a 40% + 3ball shooter, then you could live with it.

    As it is - would you build your team around a player, whose marquee shot is the 3ball, when he shoots 36%.
    ok, how about when a third of them are hoisted from way further out from 3line at a lower percentage.

    It's a terrible go-to move, imo is a selfish shot, and frustrates me as a fan that he has free reign to hurl long bombs with no regard for the rest of the offensive players or system.
     
  17. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Forum Troll

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  18. SIeepwalker

    SIeepwalker The lone sane poster

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    nothing has changed, the relatively open long 3 is still good, the one fading away with two guys in his face is still bad.

    But I don't mind a heatcheck if he's hot and has made a few good look in a row
     
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  19. swish3

    swish3 Well-Known Member

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    This thread supports my assertion that the Blazers need more swish3 shooting. Dame has found a productive idea in being a few feet behind the arc, and his scoring results prove him correct. Considering recent highly accurate shooting from Dame, which appears to be better than 40% from distance in this winning streak, the long swish3s are excellent strategy.

    My analysis in the Blazers need more 3 point scoring further argues that making 13 more swish3s and 13 less 2-pointers demonstrates the power of swish3 scoring and taking more swish3 attempts.
     
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  20. tlongII

    tlongII Legendary Poster

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    Yes, but what about Meyers?
     

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