They got better...are you kidding me? Richardson was going to leave this next year, they bought another year with Carter to go with aging players Nash & Hill.... They got a young center in Gortat, signed to a relatively good deal....to pai with Lopez..they at least have some size now.... Pietrus is a decent wing player, who is still fairly young at 28, I believe his production will go up in PHX.... Basically, they got some pieces to keep them somewhat competitive now and going forward...a draft pick, Gortat, Pietrus...all fairly young...and when carter\nash\Hill retire a lot of cap space to hasten the rebuild.... It's not like thier record was great before the deal...they were treading water, and now they can still tread water and move towards the future....
Time will tell of course but I am expecting Gortat and Pietrus to benefit mightly from the "Nash Effect". Hell, even Vince might show up now and again. And outside of all of that, that team has hope for the future now. Portland, on the other hand, does not.
This kind of synopsis is what has fueled year after year after year after year after year of Warriors/Clippers/Kings/etc hopes. "We'll have this decent young player and that decent young player and that decent young player and we'll flip our famous veteran for more good young talent and we'll have a high draft pick and salary space...it's a great situation!" Which is why I don't think the Blazers need to start tearing down. Yes, if some great deal comes along for older (or any) player, pull the trigger. But the "We're mediocre, so let's raze the foundation, get horrible and set ourselves up for future glory" seems more likely to put the team in a 5-10 years of being awful (with peaks as mediocre) than creating a championship foundation.
Sorry, but... give me a break! Phoenix now has hope for the future because they acquired a couple of guys in their mid-to-late 20's? Because they might get cap space to sign someone as good as Aldridge? Phoenix looks better after this deal than they did... in the intermediate-to-long run. But they aren't suddenly transformed into a team of the next decade because of it, and it's not like the Suns are bursting at the seams with good young players. Ed O.
I guess I forgot to mention the part where they have to get lucky too. In any case, what makes this so different than the Blazers blowing it up under Patterson/Nash and then going through another tear down under KP? The only differences I really see are that KP had a better knack for finding talent with his high lottery picks than the previous regime did. I'm not saying that there is any guarantee of success at the end of the process, but there's certainly not much guarantee of success with simply standing pat or making minor tweaks here and there either. So what is it that you would do to reverse the team's recent fortunes? I don't see a lot of free agents clamoring to come play here nor do a lot of teams seem willing to part with bonafide stars.
I think they got better now and long term. They lose Richardson's scoring, which Carter could arguably replace, but gain a better defender at the 2 in pietrus, and a solid C in Gortat. He at least adds another dimension to the team where they maybe could guard a bigger C, as opposed to just stretching him out and hoping for the best. I like Lopez and Gortat as a 1-2 punch. Frye to stretch the D at the 4. I'd start Pietrus alongside Hill and Nash, and let Carter do scoring off the bench, with Dragic and Dudley.
I am sorry as well. Phoenix will only be carrying one large contract (Nash's) after this season. And he is still their best player. And he makes the guys around him better. The rest of their pieces will be tradable to one degree or another. They have a collection of nice young players I wish Portland had. On the other hand, Portland's largest contract is very long term and will be a financial albatross around the teams neck for the next 4 years minimum. Portland's highest paid player can't make anyone better (and makes them arguably worse if the last two games is any indication). Portland has a couple of nice players but they don't make enough to even be packaged together reasonably. Sorry man, but the Suns future is actually brighter then Portland's right now.
KP started with a bottomed-out franchise. He had no choice but to build from nothing...he inherited nothing. PatterNash inherited a playoff team and tore it down in order to rebuild. So there's a big difference. We don't know what Pritchard would have done if he had taken over from Whitsitt, but he didn't tear anything down...nothing existed to be torn down. I didn't recommend a tear down after the Whitsitt years and I don't believe it turned out to be productive. We can blame that on PatterNash incompetence, and I'm sure there's a healthy aspect of that, but ultimately I don't think forcing the franchise to the bottom of the league is a good or useful step towards building a contender. Luck ends up playing a part in any championship build. I would certainly not disagree with that. I simply believe that you always work to maximize the talent you have in hand so that when that lucky strike comes along (hopefully, it does) you have talent around that acquisition to make a run. I don't believe in making moves with the intention of becoming a worse team on the idea that it will increase your chances of getting lucky. From my observation, it doesn't work that way. Teams that attempt that are usually bad for a long time. Even the recent benefactors of lucky strikes (like the Cavs and Nuggets) were terrible for years before they got James and Anthony. I don't have any specific policy prescriptions since I don't talk to GMs and don't know what's available and the general value of Portland players around the league, but in more general terms I would seek to augment a current core of Aldridge, Batum and Matthews. I'd hold onto Miller and Camby until and unless an attractive trade asset was offered in return. I'd love to acquire a nice young player for the future with Miller, Camby and/or Prsybilla but, in the absence of such an opportunity, I'll hold onto them. I recognize that Aldridge, Batum and Matthews (barring some totally unforeseen development) is nowhere near a title-contending core. But with a lucky opportunity (a Pau Gasol type of trade becoming available, an unexpected stud with a 15-20 pick, Oden returning and actually not re-injuring himself), those three players suddenly make a nice supporting cast. When that lucky opportunity comes along (and it has to for the Blazers to become a contender), it's a bad idea to have shit surrounding that player. I used to believe that either you should be a top team or else you should be a bottom team, with cap space and top picks. After watching what that's generally gotten bottom teams, I no longer believe that. I now firmly believe that a team who's good enough to get into the playoffs, even if they get knocked out in the first round, is closer to title contention than a team who's got no talent but has cap space and a top draft pick.
Good post Minstrel. Agree with a lot of what was said. I think it has been mentioned before, or they have, but I think Dallas kind of fits that scenario, where they keep on adding pieces, and maybe it never gets them back to the Finals, but they look like a decent team right now, with pieces they can move to continue to get better. I think bailing on everyone and hoping for luck in the lottery is a bad idea right now. For some teams, maybe not. But the hope of finding that random franchise guy in the lottery, I don't really want to go through again.
The Caveat is that many of Portland's good players (Miller, Camby, Joel) are old and close to the end of their contract. Running another year at close to .500 with them is an exercise in futility. All you do is start the suckness one year later. I do not see any point in shipping LMA, Nic or Wes just to blow it up - but the older vets with some trade value have a shelf life - and keeping them around to stay at .500 for another year is a waste.
Assuming you get something worthwhile for them. I'd rather hold onto them and make another playoff than trade them for a bench spare part (say, a Martell Webster type). I've always been open to trading Miller, Camby or Przybilla...but you need to get their net present value back. It can be more weighted toward future value, but trading them for pennies on the dollar just because they're not part of the future doesn't make sense either, IMO. And when you put it in those terms (needing to get their NPV back), there stops being a divide between Miller/Camby/Przybilla and anyone else on the roster. Anyone could be traded for equal NPV...how much that NPV should be weighted to the present or the future depends on how close you are to contention. Ultimately, I think fans tend to overrate the NPV of first round picks and cap space.
You always want to try and get fair value for players, but letting them expire is the worst possible move. The last pick in the second round is more valuable that an allstar player you let expire and don't hold the rights to any longer.
Sure, but the chance to get something better by holding onto the player til the last possible second before the trade deadline has value. I'd rather risk losing out on a bad return (like a second-round pick) to have that chance. And I think making the playoffs has a non-zero value. In terms of team-building, I like to aim for championship, not mere playoff qualification, but that doesn't mean I think playoff qualification means nothing. More meaningful games, more fan interest, avoiding a culture of losing around the franchise...I think they have value to fans and the franchise.
Portland made the playoffs for over 20 straight years, and still went through a culture of losing not very long ago. As for waiting, I see your point. I just can't get the RLEC out of my head.
RLEC = "Best trade chip in the history of the NBA." While I realize it wasn't that great, it was pretty damn good, and the I consider it the "one that got away"
I'm not saying that making the playoffs makes you immune from ever enduring a "culture of losing." I'm saying that you want to spend as little time, as a franchise, in that state. I'm usually the last to talk about intangibles, but I think there are drawbacks to a franchise going into each season with a history of being bad. It saps attendance, it makes players more likely to slide into bad habits or attitudes and it makes players outside the franchise less willing to come to the team and/or extend contracts with the team. This is not my main concern, but I think it's part of why a team shouldn't throw away a possible playoff appearance, even if they have essentially no hope of going deep in the playoffs.
Minstrel, make no mistake I'm not talking about blowing the team up to point where there is no talent left on the roster and I would certainly wait until the deadline approaches to try and make the most impactful trade, but when I say tear it down and rebuild I mostly mean identifying those younger players you think are worth keeping (LMA, Matthews, Batum probably) and getting the most value you can for your older vets like Miller, Camby and Przy -- whether that's picks, players or some combination of both. But I'm not naive enough to think that this team is going to sustain their current win totals of the last couple of years if they go younger, because almost without exception, youth is not served in the league. The upside to a tear down and rebuild in this circumstance vs. the Jailblazers era or the early KP years is that we don't have a massive collection of knuckleheads that we'd be lucky to get 10 cents on the dollar for them and we don't have the glut of non-performing contracts we had during those years. Presumably, teams on the cusp of a title run or teams that feel like they're maybe a veteran big man or point guard away from a title push, would want Miller, Camby and/or Joel. My only point is that if I had to pick between holding on too long, getting mired in mediocrity (ie. borderline luxury tax team winning 40 games a year and just missing the playoffs) and falling into the early lottery and having a shot at at a real franchise player then I'd go with the latter. Hopefully blowing it up down to bedrock isn't called for in this situation.
