DO NOT TRADE ANDRE MILLER!!!!!!!!

Thing is, Miller means a lot to the way we play these days. His loss is worth significantly more than just "one step back."

 

There's no need to trade him this year; we have the team option for next year, and can trade his expiring contract then, after extracting more good play from him this year. I think we'll keep him, extend him, then trade him next year at this time (provided we're playing basketball next year at this time).

 

Unless by some mircale, we can somehow get a very good, young to mid-career PG (and those are very rare), I hope we keep Miller through the end of this season - and pickup his option for next season, too.

Sure, he's almost 35, but he's playing great ball this season. His advanced stats (PER, AST%, etc.) are actually above his career averages. He is not yet showing any signs of declining performance. His game does not rely on athleticism, and he has proven to be very durable.

LaMarcus Aldridge deserves a ton of credit for the hard work he put in over the summer to improve his low post game. However, it's no coincidence his production really started to take off when the Blazers offense started running through Miller instead of Roy. LaMarcus got off to a very slow start this season - posting numbers well below his career averages - until mid-December when Roy went on the inactive list. Since then, LaMarcus has been dominant. But, he wouldn't be able to take advantage of his improved low post game without a PG who knows how to feed the low post. That's one of Andre Miller's biggest assets - he knows when, where and how to get the ball into the post. Take that away, and I see LaMarcus regressing - not all the way to his former self, but not as dominant as he's been lately.

I'd also like to see Oden and Miller play together for a season. Back at the beginning of the 2009-10 season, Oden and Miller seemed to be devloping some chemistry. Unfortunately, they rarely got to play together in games. Back then, Blake was starting and Nate ALWAYS pulled Oden at the 6 minute mark - sooner if he picked up two quick fouls. Miller didn't usually enter the game until around the 9 minute mark. So, in the few games before Oden's injury, Miller and Oden usually only played together a couple minutes per game. Just like he's helped with Aldridge's development, Miller feeding the ball into Oden on the low block would do miracles for Oden's game. Oden has the basic tools to be a dominant low post scorer, but he lacks two things - experience and confidence. Miller feeding him in the low post will help overcome both of those issue.

Just look how much Aldridge's confidence has increased over the last two months. He's now knocking down big shots in the 4th quarter with the game on the line on a regular basis - and smiling while he's doing it likes it's as easy as can be. That's something that did not exist during Aldridge's first 4 years in the league. I don't want to give Miller too much credit, but he's certainly helped accelerate Aldridge's emergence as a go-to scorer. And once confidence it developed, it sticks. Aldridge has it now, and you can see it in the way he approaches the game. Oden lacks it, but Miller can help him develop it.

Unless you can somehow get one of the very rare younger PGs who make their big men better (Chris Paul), I would not look to move Miller. Even if Miller's individual performance starts to decline (and it isn't, yet), his ability to feed the low post is something this team is going to need to get to the next level.

Let's be honest, a heathly, productive, confident Oden is our best shot at a title. Without Oden, adding a young, project PGOTF isn't going to get us any closer to a championship - in fact, it will be a big step backwards short term, and may not help much long term either.

If Oden can come back next year, and Roy can be a reasonably productive 6th man for the next couple years, I think we have about a two year window to make a serious title run. Look at it this way. This current roster without Oden, Roy and Camby is on pace to win 50 games and be a 5th/6th seed. I know it's a big if, but if we can add Roy, in a reduced role, Oden as a starter and Camby as a back-up, this team could still contend for a title a title for a year, or two. It will take things lining up perfectly, like they did back in 1977, but I really think it's our best shot at a title.

Blowing things up will set the team back at least five years, and even then there is no guantee what you end up rebuilding will be any better than what we have now. How long did it take Orlando to rebuild between Shaq and Dwight? And, they still don't have a title. How long has it taken Chicago to rebuild post-MJ? Who was the last team to win a championship by building through the draft? Not the Lakers, not the Celtics, not the Pistons. I think you have to go back to the 1999 Spurs - who lucked out and got Duncan and had David Robinson coming back from an injury that got them in the lottery in the first place. Most champions are made by starting with a decent base - which we have now, and adding veteran pieces through trades and free agency. I'd rather take that approcah than blowing things up and completely starting over.

BNM

 

At some point, this falsehood will finally go away, right?

http://sportstwo.com/threads/177968-Nate-and-Playing-Rookies

 

Jeez Nic, I don't know when you have flipped over to the totally negative side, but it seems this year you have no positve blood flowing through you. I know because I always used to agreed with your posts in the past but either I have become total Blazer homer (possible) or your getting more sour about the team as the years go on.

Where is the competitive drive to try and make the playoffs? To try and over achieve. Isn't fun that many were counting the Blazers out of the playoffs and here we are contending for 5th? This is what makes sports fun. We are relevant this year. So Blazers probably fizzle in first round . . . it means they aren't a top 4 team in the western conference.

I think Cho should stick with this team, exercize Andre's option and the Blazers will be in the exact same position next year if they want to make moves. Let's run with this fun bunch and see what happens.

 

You didn't weigh in on trading Dre. Is your position still trade him or waive him, this year?

Go Blazers

 

This is my opinion as well, especially as there is a chance that this team will be competitive in the playoffs. If Aldridge can maintain his new self, we get some nice production from Roy (even if it is for shorter minutes) - this team might be able to make some noise in the playoffs. Our perimeter defense has been much better this year, adding Camby (or replacement center/anchor) would help with out interior defense, the Lakers look slower this year, we match well with SAS. This team might be able to do something in the playoffs if the cards fall our way - and we are due for some good luck for a chance, I think. Statistically things should start to even out sooner or later.

 

Trade him for something better (or younger with potential) or keep him. I've learned to enjoy his positives and not dwell on his negatives. Perhaps you missed my epiphany a week or so ago. I started to enjoy this season no matter what happens, and root for the players despite glaring weaknesses that keep them from being great, or making the team great. Expecting Andre Miller to start hitting outside shots to open up the middle is unproductive; instead, I embrace all Blazer players, warts and all, and will enjoy the team, win or lose. Posting many negative posts about Miller accomplished nothing, just as others who post many negative posts about the coach, Roy, Cunningham, <enter player/coach/owner/announcer here> are accomplishing nothing. That said, while I'm not going to overrate players with average stats (see the Matthews' Slow Start thread), I will always root for them to do well, and to try their best to lead my city's team to a victory!

 

I'm for playing out the string this year. If Marcus and Brandon can come back and produce, this team has a shot at getting past the first round, then you never know.

I've remained a rabid homer though the jailblazers, then the re-build...for what? Two years of competitive play, then re-build again? Screw that. If they blow it up this season, I'll remain a fan, but I'll be a casual one until they become relevant again.

Further, the league seems to be setting up a few 'super' teams to play against a bunch of also-rans. I have zero level of confidence that blowing it up will ever result in a Blazers contender if the league continues down the path they are currently headed.

Go Blazers

 

I'll add that the team hasn't lost since my epiphany.

Go Blazers!

 

Good point and I should have added that. If this were the east and the Blazers were sneaking into the playoffs with a losing record, then I maybe understand conceeding playoffs for the year to get better.

But the Blazers are playing well, winning and beating some tough teams. Now isn't the time to pull the plug.

 

I don't think we'd get much for him this year, either. Frankly I don't think there's a trade that gets us value worth two shits for 'Dre. If there is, great. I don't see it though. Problem is we need a PG back for our PG to even think about staying competitive, and a same-position trade usually ends up a net-loss for the initiating team. It is also too late to start tanking for a good pick, so why trade him for a player that won't help us much?

I'd rather keep him, knowing he'll personally win you 5 more games this season, and prevent another 10 losses. I'm sure it looks short-sighted, but I think he's more valuable to the Blazers as a Blazer.

Of course, if by some miracle someone wants to trade Camby and Andre as a package for a point guard as good as Dre is now at 34 (that list is pretty short), then awesome possum. But I don't see that happening.

 

But when two young stars go down, it's not a bad plan B.

Other teams wish they had that plan B. NO and Utah are dying without their starting center alone.

 

Great post. Especially the part cited. I'd say the odds of everything coalescing as you describe are maybe 10-15% at best, but those are the best odds we've got.

If Aldridge is truly evolving into the best scoring big man in the game, and I think he is, you need to take as many chances as you can to get him shots at the title. A PGOTF who takes 3-4 years to pan out isn't the way to go. You go the Dallas/San Antonio route, acquiring proven veterans to fill in the roles.

 

I don't totally disagree with you on this, but the PG position seems to be different. many of them seem to play just as well when they are 35, 36, 37, 38......Maybe the thing to do is stop drafting PG's and just keep signing the old guys every 3-4 years. I thought trading Harris for Kidd was a really bad idea. I was wrong.

 

Yeah, I'm coming around to the "old vet" school of thought on PG's. Besides, anybody remember the last hot young PGOTF we got locked into? Damon Fucking Stoudamire.

I'd rather put my eggs in a basket like Miller or Kidd or Billups or Nash. You know what you get from night to night, and they know their job is to make the stars look good.

 

I thought your entire post was dead-on, but especially this. This has always been my thesis, especially in discussions about blowing it up or trying to trade veterans for draft picks.

People don't like the odds of Oden coming back and giving the team a healthy season next year? How do you like the odds of acquiring a fresh superstar to catapult this team to championship contention anytime soon...lottery team or not? The fact is, the odds of finding a new superstar are exceptionally long. I definitely think the odds of Oden providing an impact season next year (if it's not wiped out by labour issues) are better, even if they're not good.

 

I am going to throw out this argument for the sole reason that I think it is a valid argument towards making a trade now. Assuming that Roy's contract is an albatross for the next 4 years, the team isn't going to have the money to bring in free agents, and Portland isn't a very desirable place for free agents to play. That means the only way to bring in talent is a trade. Considering that both of these players are nearing end of career for age, they may be our only shot at improving the team for several years. If we let them move on without getting something for them, the team could be hamstrung for years. The team hasn't had a 1st round draft pick pan out in a long time, and none of the past 1st round draft picks after the Roy/Aldridge year are showing any signs of picking up their game and helping out this team any time soon. It is very hard for a team to survive such a long period without gaining any talent in the draft. If they have no money to get free agents with, then that leaves the only optoin to be a trade, and a trade being the only way you really know what you are getting in return when the player(s) are dealt for. That is how I see it. I know that the CBA won't be ratified until next year and we have no idea what the salary cap will be. But Roy's contract will continue to cost the team a lot of money, no matter what it is set at.