DRAFT NIGHT 2022 Predictions | Draft Night Trades | More

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by BoomChakaLaka, May 18, 2022.

  1. HoopsFanAZ

    HoopsFanAZ Well-Known Member

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    “For the purposes of what these trades are trying to do (get us closer to being a legit contender starting with the upcoming season) I would actually much rather find a way to get value out of the Bucks pick as opposed to trading the 36th pick. […] If the mission is to get a chip with Dame then that Bucks pick is only really valuable if it's traded.”

    I’m less tied to a particular trade or draftee … compared to this essential point. And making a trade more favorable towards Detroit or anyone else to increase those odds is just the cost of doing business. I actually expect Cronin will make this a big off-season. The risk of not doing so is high, and the one thing I don’t expect is a repeat of the Summer of Crappy Contracts.
    :cheers:
     
  2. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    yeah, I know, quoting myself...what a dipshit

    but I've been thinking about that trade and what Detroit's motivation might be to agree:

    * the first assumption is that Cronin has the balls to refuse to trade 7 for Grant.

    * it sure doesn't look like Grant is in their long-term plans; and it sure doesn't look like the Pistons are in Grant's long term plans. IIRC he has said as such and has certainly implied as such. So Detroit is kind of holding a slightly smelly bag. Grant's value will not be going up between now and the trade deadline; it will only go down. He's an expiring contract at a time when expiring contracts have almost no value. Portland is the only team that has shown, at least publicly, any interest in Grant. There may be a one-team market for him

    * it's not like the Pistons would be dropping from #5 to #10. They are only dropping two slots. Which means they only have to game-plan one team, the 6th slot, and that's Indiana. What are the realistic chances that both Detroit and Indiana want the same player? That just doesn't seem likely. Meaning that there would be no cost to move down two slots. They could still draft the player they want and they'd also have the 'power' to prevent Portland from taking that player as well

    * and if there is no cost, they add a free future 1st round pick while getting what they want from the draft. They also get an immediate 21M in cap-space after the moratorium while still absorbing Bagley's 28M cap-hold. So, if Bagley, for instance, signs for half of his cap-hold, Detroit would have near-max cap-space (and one of the stipulations of the trade could be that the Pistons couldn't go after Nurkic or Simons...?).

    not only that, by drafting the player they want at 7 instead of 5 the Pistons save around 1.2M in first year salary and about 10M in the 4 years of the rookie scale

    I've actually talked myself into thinking that this trade, while improbable, is not that far-fetched at all depending on how the draft goes. But as I began this post, it pivots on if Cronin has the fortitude to refuse the 7 for Grant
     
  3. Hoopguru

    Hoopguru Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, there's been a lot talk about trading down but Ive thought we have a good chance of trading up. I proposed a similar trade a while back, 7, Mil 25 & a player for 5 and Grant.
    We could even trade up for Houstons pick.
    I think when the talk about swinging for fence is what Joe should do, trading up qualifies.
     
  4. Mediocre Man

    Mediocre Man Mr. SportsTwo

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    Another guy I like for a second rounder is Peyton Watson
     
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  5. BoomChakaLaka

    BoomChakaLaka Well-Known Member

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    Trading up to #3 makes some sense if we believe that this college grad has starter-potential at the 3 or 4. Trading our #7, Buck’s #1 (2025) and perhaps our #36 and/or Nas…for Grant and Detroit’s #5 - this is swinging for the fences WITH the insurance of Grant as part of the deal.

    And to swing bigger, then let’s trade the Detroit’s #5 along with Bledsoe to NY for Randal and NY’s #11!

    We give up:
    #7, #36, (Buck’s 2025) #1 and Little and Bledsoe

    in return, we have a lineup:

    Dame
    Ant
    Grant
    Randal
    Nurkic

    with Watford, Hart, Winslow, G. Smith, Williams, McLemore, K. Johnson, Ingles - as a bench

    competitive!
     
    Last edited: May 24, 2022
  6. Mediocre Man

    Mediocre Man Mr. SportsTwo

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    I like the enthusiasm, but Randal is NOT the answer at PF
     
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  7. oldmangrouch

    oldmangrouch persona non grata

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    My prediction. When the 7th pick arrives, at least 1 future all-star will still be on the board. Blazers will pass on this player to trade for yet another journeyman vet bandaid.
     
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  8. BoomChakaLaka

    BoomChakaLaka Well-Known Member

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    Any value in trading with Sacramento in efforts to being Sabonis to the Blazers?

    Dame
    Ant
    Hart
    Sabonis
    Nurkic

    what would this look like?
     
  9. blazerkor

    blazerkor Well-Known Member

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    I think it would look like a really slow front court for us on defense. I also think it would look like the Kings broke the bank to get Sabonis there just to trade him. So I would say no to the trade if I was us and I'd say no to the trade if I was them.
     
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  10. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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    Starting to like this kid

     
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  11. BoomChakaLaka

    BoomChakaLaka Well-Known Member

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    #7 gets traded
    Sign & Trade away Nurk
    Buck’s #1 (2025) used to move back into this year’s first round

    Welcome
    Ayton &
    Grant
     
  12. 42N8Bounce

    42N8Bounce Red Hot And Rebuilding

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    I did a bit of sampling of the mock drafts currently available. Here are the results:

    upload_2022-6-14_19-7-42.png

    upload_2022-6-14_19-10-15.png

    Some things of note:
    - If the Blazers keep the #7 pick, it looks like Bennedict Mathurin is our guy.
    - The player with the most variability in the lottery is Jalen Duren. With an average pick of #10.7, a most common pick of #9, and an average deviation/range of +/- 3.4. He's all over the boards.

    Each year I like to put in the college stat into a spreadsheet I created. It calculates a player score similar to PER, but takes into account things like age, team w/l, and strength of schedule. I then take those stats and compare them against over 3,000 college players and adjust their ranking up/down according to the NBA success of the similar college players.

    Here are some of the results of this year. Match score is the NBA success of similar college players. BdB score is the raw college stats score I noted above. Essentially, 35-50 is a NBA reserve. 50-65 is a NBA starter. 65+ is an upper level starter.

    upload_2022-6-14_19-22-42.png

    Keep in mind, the comps are not similar playing styles, but more overall impact to the game with similar best skills.

    Each year my spreadsheet finds some gems, and has some misses. It definitely cant 'see' things like BBIQ, motor, drugs, injuries, etc. It just looks at the raw college stats.

    I think there are quite a few gems to be found late in this draft. Hopefully the Blazer staff can find a few of them this year!
     
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2022
  13. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    Terrific work
     
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  14. KSF-ERIC

    KSF-ERIC Well-Known Member

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    G Smith?
     
  15. KSF-ERIC

    KSF-ERIC Well-Known Member

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    I’d be happy with that. Dame/Hart/Winslow/Grant/Ayton will defend. I can get behind that.
     
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  16. HailBlazers

    HailBlazers RipCity

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    Ugh wish we had the 8th as well. :blush:
     
  17. UKRAINEFAN

    UKRAINEFAN Well-Known Member

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    John Butler undrafted?
     
  18. blazerfan11

    blazerfan11 Well-Known Member

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    Memphis was so sure they were getting the Lakers pick from New Orleans they didn't have any future first round protection.
     
  19. blazerfan11

    blazerfan11 Well-Known Member

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  20. HoopsFanAZ

    HoopsFanAZ Well-Known Member

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    Detroit selects Keegan Murry at 5. Detroit trades Murray + Grant to Portland for #7, the TPE, MIL '25, Keon Johnson [DET plays in the FA market]
     
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