Okay, Mullin decided to not take my advice and deal for Baron in the offseason, he gave up less talent, but he created a bigger cap problem for the team. In light of them moves, let's talk some draft... If I were Mullin, here's how I'd look at the roster when preparing for the draft. Three starting positions are set: pg: Baron sg: Jason pf: Murph The two question marks are now small forward and center, each have their own set of problems. At sf, Mullin will have Dunleavy and Skita for another year before he has to decide who to keep. I'm betting he takes the entire year, since both are in the same boat of having incredible potential, but haven't found a way to turn it into production (Dunleavy can certainly produce more, but I still feel Skita has the most potential). Both have pretty similar games, though I still believe that Skita's eventual position will be pf once he fills out, I'm sure Mullin is just looking at him as a sf. The best part of this situation is if the new CBA shortens the max length of a contract, it's less of a risk to take a flier on one of 'em. At c, I believe Foyle is just the place holder for Biedrins (it still baffles me why Mullin gave Foyle such a long contract, if that's what he had to do to match Orlando's offer, he should have just let him walk), so while he'll eventually be moved, he can't be traded until Biedrins is ready to step in. Of course the question marks here surround whether Foyle can consistently produce and whether Biedrins will ever develop. Of the two, I feel a lot better about Biedrins' chances to develop into something special than Foyle's chances at becoming a consistent 10/10/2.5 guy. So what does this all mean for the draft? I think Mullin will be looking for a low post scoring center, but the sticking point is it has to be a CENTER, not a power forward. The only guy that comes close to what Mullin is looking for is Bogut. But I have the same problem with Bogut now as I did before: Murph is your pf, Biedrins was your draft pick last year, why draft a big man (and looking at the recent history of big men taken high in the lottery it is CERTAINLY not a lock that Bogut is a can't miss prospect) and create a log jam at pf/c. I guess with the talent Mullin has just acquired, the short answer is, "well, he's created talent log jams at every other position..." The other thing Mullin will be looking at is a lock down defender at sf. Getting Baron means he's doesn't need nearly as much scoring out of his sf. If Baron is healthy, I could see Richardson getting 23-24 ppg next year, Baron getting 20-21, and Murph getting 16-17. If you can get 60 ppg out of three of your starters, you really don't need the other two to average double figures a la the Spurs. But if Mullin and Montgomery decide to have the Warriors be a running team, having that fourth scorer in the starting line up certainly helps, a la the Suns and Kings. But, just like before, I think the most likely option is for the Warriors to trade the pick. They have enough young talent at the two question mark positions, that they don't need to draft another. They're better off trading the pick, along with some of that young talent for either another young player on his rookie deal, or a vet with a reasonable contract. <u>So if they keep the pick, here's how I see things:</u> If the pick is top 1 or 2: draft Bogut and walk away happy. If the pick is 3 or lower (or 2 with Bogut off the board): there isn't a single center or small forward that will be available here that would fill the Warriors low post scoring or wing defending needs. So they should package the pick with either Foyle or Fisher along with one of the young pieces, to upgrade either center or small forward. <u>If they deal the pick, here are the type of guys I think Mullin will be looking for:</u> At center, the only real option is Eddy Curry, but the problems with Curry are two fold. 1) There are still a ton of questions about whether he's got the head or heart to be a player in this league. 2) Curry is a RFA this offseason and is looking to sign a big deal, it'd be a mistake for the Warriors to sign him to an extension until they know what the terms of the new CBA are. At small forward, there aren't a great deal of options that are better than Pietrus. About the only guys I can think of who would fit the bill is someone like Andre Igoudala or James Posey. They're both terrific defenders, but they're also further along offensively than Pietrus and Iguodala has an additional year on his rookie deal. For an Iguodala deal to work, I'd say it would have to be something like Dunleavy and the pick for Igoudala, Olie, and a future Philly pick. A deal for Posey is unlikely, since Posey isn't worth Dunleavy and a pick, and the Griz also have a log jam at sf. So it would have to be part of a larger deal, but I have no idea what that deal would look like. I dunno, these recent moves make it really tough to predict anything that's going to happen in the future. I will say this though, the more I think about it, the one thing that seems clear is that I don't think the Warriors will keep their pick.