Ducks

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by SlyPokerDog, Dec 6, 2021.

  1. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    Can you blame him? Dude was known as a defensive stud and he had one of the worst defenses in the nation.
     
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  2. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    I'll disagree, at least technically. The D gave up 382 yards a game. That was good enough for 71st in the country, and was better than the first Avalos defense. They were 89th in yards/play

    but the defense had the worst flaw any defense can have in football and that's a shitty 3rd down defense. They were 124th out of 131 in opponent 3rd down conversion rate and that just killed them. It forced the D, several times a game, to defend another set of downs, and also kept their offense off the field. if they could have just had an average 3rd down conversion rate, they would have likely won the Pac-12 and been in the playoffs
     
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  3. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    Hmmmm.... I can't really point to anything but I remember seeing graphics shared multiple times where we were one of the worst in the country. So I don't know. Either way, there was no reason for a team with that much talent to be that bad.
     
  4. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    I saw an interview with Nick Aliotti one time a few years ago. He was asked something like: "what's the most important thing for a defense to do well? What is the most revealing stat for a defense?"

    he answered immediately without hesitation (paraphrasing): "opponent 3rd down conversions. if you consistently have trouble getting off the field you will lose important games, especially in November"
    ******************************************************

    he was also asked what the most important position was on defense. Again, without hesitation he said cornerback(s). He said if, as a coach, you had great CB's you could trust in single coverage, you could then mix up zone and man-to-man defenses, keeping the offense guessing rather than planning, and do so while adding several kinds of blitz & pressure packages and do that while loading the box. I have no doubt that's true because his best defenses, with the most sacks and QB pressures, happened when he had great CB's
     
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  5. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    I miss him.
     
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  6. STOMP

    STOMP mere fan

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    Oregon was the most watched team in the Pac 12 again last year and #12 overall



    STOMP
     
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  7. STOMP

    STOMP mere fan

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    The main insider at rivals relays a what could have been for the Duck 2023 class from early signing day. Had 5* Safety Peyton Bowen stayed with his initial commitment to UO, 5* DT David Hicks would have also been a Duck. Hicks had a signed LOI ready to fax to Oregon once his friend Bowen's arrived. That the Bowen family drama immediately broke out after his announcement resulting in him eventually announcing Oklahoma is why Hicks delayed his commitment for several days as he sorted out a new course.

    STOMP
     
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  8. Hoopguru

    Hoopguru Well-Known Member

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    Will the defense be much improved over last year? Shouldn't be hard to accomplish if they address the 3 and long's.
    Will he use fewer linemen and more backers and secondary like Georgia?
    I hope the DC shows more this year.
     
  9. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure it's got significantly better from a talent standpoint. So improvements would likely be more related to fit, scheme, etc.
     
  10. STOMP

    STOMP mere fan

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    One talent they really missed last year was NT Popo Aumavae who is arguably their best DLineman.

    STOMP
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2023
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  11. Hoopguru

    Hoopguru Well-Known Member

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    Maybe the guy they are bringing in from Tulane can help better defend passing game.
     
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  12. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    Of the 3 areas of the defense, I would agree that DL would look to be most improved from a talent standpoint, assuming full health. LB's and DB's there were some solid adds, but also meaningful departures. Certainly not saying they can't be better, I'm just saying I don't see a massive talent increase. Would seem like it would be hard to be worse.
     
  13. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    It is certainly possible!

    I'm not sure if the problem was the DBs as much as it was a total lack of pressure on the QB combined with slow LB's in coverage. Though it was all bad!
     
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  14. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    regarding the Duck D:

    the defense gave up a 47.4% conversion 3rd down rate to their opponents last season on 13.3 attempts. that was 124th out of 131. In 2019, when Oregon went 12-2 and beat Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl, the D gave up a conversion rate of 33.2% on 15.7 attempts/game. Notice how a better 3rd down defense forces more 3rd downs?

    going from nearly a 50% conversion rate all the way down to a 33% rate is probably too big an ask. But it would seem 35-37% is possible. On 14 attempts.game that would be going from giving up about 7 conversions to 5 conversions. How many fewer yards and fewer points would 2 fewer 1st downs yield? At 5.5 yards/play, that could be around 35 fewer yards a game; and close to 3 fewer points. Two of the Duck losses last season were by 3 points.

    Not only that, getting those two extra stops would give the Duck offense more time on the field and more possessions. Oregon was 6th in the nation in offense last year, only 25 yards/game behind the leader. They could have led the nation in offense and been top-3 in scoring with a couple of extra possessions a game

    even with all of their 3rd down problems, the Duck D wasn't as bad as many are making out. They were 71st in to total defense giving up 382 yards a game. Subtract that 35 yards from their 3rd down issue and the Ducks would have given up 345 yards/game, good enough for 35th. Oregon actually ranked 22nd in red zone defense last season giving up a 76.9% scoring rate. A little less stellar in the red zone TD rate ranking 54th. But the total defense and the red zone defense shows the Ducks were at least average in defense, maybe even solid, but for that major flaw on 3rd downs. Correct that and the Ducks are a different team
    *************************************************

    I would agree that there wasn't much of a generic talent upgrade on defense. Maybe a little. But there is no doubt that Lanning is processing players and getting players he thinks fits his systems. Think about SEC defenses; what makes them different? It's simply the power of the defensive lines. They don't get overmatched physically and they have excellent depth. with that in mind, look what Lanning is doing on the DLine. First there are the returning players:

    Brandon Dorlus (DE 290)
    Jake Shipley (DE 267)
    Bradyn Swinson (edge 233)
    Treven Ma'ae (DL 272)
    Sir Mells (T 315)
    Ben Roberts (T 311)
    Casey Rogers (T 290)
    Taki Taimani (T 315)
    Maceal Afaese (DL 260)
    Popo Aumavae (T 305)
    Sua'ava Poti (DL 285)
    Keyon Ware-Hudson (T 285)

    then there are the DL recruits:

    Matayo Uiagalelei (edge 265)
    Johnny Bowens (DL 265)
    My'Keil Gardner (DL 275)
    Teitum Tuioti (edge 225)
    Tevita Pome'e (T 315)
    A'mauri Washington (T 295)
    Blake Purchase (edge 240)
    Terrance Green (edge/T 265)
    Ashton Porter (edge/T 255)
    Jaeden Moore (edge 230)
    Jordan Burch (transfer edge 275)

    in case you are keeping track, that's 23 'scholarship' DLinemen, out of 85 total scholarships. Now, I think that a few of these guys will transfer in the spring, likely at least 3 or 4, maybe even 5 (from what I've heard). I think you will also start to hear about players (and this will be at a lot of schools) who don't have scholarships but are receiving enough NIL to cover the costs of school. Kind of like walk-ons with full pockets. perfectly legal in the age of NIL

    in any event, I think just the DLine numbers on the current roster, and the recruits, tells you clearly what Lanning thinks is the priority, and how he intends to solve that 3rd down issue

    (by the way, at last count the Ducks had 92 (+/- 1) players on scholarship, and they are definitely hoping to add Nycholes Harbor and Roderick Pleasant; probably a long shot to land both)
     
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  15. STOMP

    STOMP mere fan

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    From what I read, Pleasant is indeed a longshot but with his track and football dreams, Harbor is a real possibility. He has stated that UO is his dream school and has run at Hayward before the massive upgrade. He's visiting again in a few weeks.

    STOMP
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2023
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  16. STOMP

    STOMP mere fan

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    With the 2023 class about set, Oregon lands their first 2025 commit in Florida WR Dallas Wilson. Yes he just finished his Sophomore season so any real commitment is a long ways off, but with size speed and a fantastic highlight tape compiled against top Florida competition, he'd already received 13 offers from local schools to heavyweights like Bama. When offer number 14 came from Oregon, he committed hours later to his "dream school".



    STOMP
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2023
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  17. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    here is a couple of WTF numbers:



    try and figure that out
    *********************************

    maybe because of QB ratings:



    Justin Herbert was rated the 659th best recruit and the 26th best QB
     
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2023
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  18. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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  19. Hoopguru

    Hoopguru Well-Known Member

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  20. Hoopguru

    Hoopguru Well-Known Member

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    Bama
     

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