Dumpy's Fantasy Baseball Bargains

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Petey @ Apr 24 2008, 11:32 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>14 man league? Man that sounds like a challenge.

But fun.

-Petey</div>

we have a really cool structure that really lends itself to implementing advanced strategy. we have two divisions of seven teams each, although points are doled out on a league-wide basis. At the end of the year, the two division winners go head-to-head to determine an overall winner. Thus, it is entirely possible that the division winner with fewer overall points could end up the champion, and there is a flurry of strategic moves towards the end of the year between all the contending teams to try to build a squad that could both win the division and beat whoever they think will win the OTHER division. Every year, two or three categories become the battle ground for the title.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Petey @ Apr 24 2008, 11:44 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Dumpy @ Apr 24 2008, 11:38 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Petey @ Apr 24 2008, 11:32 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>14 man league? Man that sounds like a challenge.

But fun.

-Petey</div>

we have a really cool structure that really lends itself to implementing advanced strategy. we have two divisions of seven teams each, although points are doled out on a league-wide basis. At the end of the year, the two division winners go head-to-head to determine an overall winner. Thus, it is entirely possible that the division winner with fewer overall points could end up the champion, and there is a flurry of strategic moves towards the end of the year between all the contending teams to try to build a squad that could both win the division and beat whoever they think will win the OTHER division. Every year, two or three categories become the battle ground for the title.
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That does sound fun. Do you tank a category? Like my team can't steal bases. But I won't pick up Pierre to play over one of my OFers. Poor strategy? Though so far 3 weeks in, I have yet to lose a HR battle.

-Petey
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It depends on the circumstances. Whether it is viable depends a lot on the structure of the league, such as what categories are used. I don't like planning on tanking a category before the season starts. You can win that way, but there is no room for error. there has been a team in my league that has tried for years to dominate the pitching categories and focus on batting average, OBP, runs, and steals, while tanking HRs, RBIs, and slugging percentage. Theoretically, it could work, but it hasn't yet.

It sounds like you're playing in a head-to-head league, which I've never done, and things may be different in that structure, I don't know.

However, I've often "frozen" categories mid-season--that is, figured out how to ensure I get a certain number of points, and convert surplus resources for help in some other area. I take a holistic approach of trying to maximize my points across the board by sacrificing certain areas when I believe it would be counterproductive to pursue any marginal improvement.

I personally hate players who just steal bases. For one thing, because of our additional categories, many have very limited value--many of those guys don't have a very good OBP, which is one of our categories, and will kill your slugging percentage. also, if a player like that hurts his ankle or knee, he'll be totally worthless. I usually try to calcualte each player's "overall" value and draft based on that, and don't target certain categories, and don't really care if I have players who all do the same thing. I figure that if you get good value, at some point you can turn it into something you really need via trade. This year, partically because I am sharing a team with a friend who couldn't attend our draft, we figured out in advance who we wanted to take and when to take him. Because we picked last, we were able to make pretty accurate guesses about which players we'd be able to choose between for each of our first eight to ten selections (unless we wanted to completely overpick someone), by putting together a "composite" player ranking based on a number of different sources that we assumed would roughly correspond to everyone's individual rankings. For instance, based upon the talent distribution, we figured out that if we didn't take a 3B with our 3rd or 4th pick (which were next to each other), we'd be unable to get one until round 15 or so, so we targetted Garrett Atkins, chipper Jones, or Aramis Ramirez there. Unfortunately,, all of them were gone, and true to expectations, we were unable to get a 3B until much, much later, because we were unwilling to take someone like Ryan Zimmerman two or three rounds higher than we thought he deserved. As another example, we thought that there would probably be a few second-tier CFs available for our 5th or 6th move, and would be appropriate picks there, so we passed on CFs that were available earlier (we did, in fact, get Torii Hunter in round six). Unless we took Teixeira in round 2, we HAD to take a 1B in round 4 or we'd be forced to carry some middle-of-the-road guy, and we couldn't be sure that we could get someone like Conor Jackson who we liked (Derek Lee went just before us, so we took Carlos Pena). We were targetting Rickie Weeks in round 8, so we passed on 2Bs that went earlier. It actually worked remarkably well; with the exception of the 3B fiasco, pretty much everyone we discussed in advance we were able to take, or choose between. It hinged on establishing a pitching strategy, though--we had already decided when we wanted to take SPs and RPs. And catchers: we targetted Chris Snyder for our starting catcher, and thought we could get him very, very late, which we did.

Unfortunately, the team sucks.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Dumpy @ Mar 30 2008, 04:43 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>In past seasons, I've touted some fantasy-baseball bargains. I think I have a pretty good record--I pimped Brandon Webb before he won the Cy Young and Nick Swisher before his breakout 35-HR season. I won't kid you, I've had some duds in there, too. But, because I'm willing to lay it on the line, here is my list of possible 2008 fantasy baseball breakout candidates. Some may only be average players at best--so consider your league size before you jump on their bandwagons--but these are the players that I'm most comfortable will outperform general expectations. I'll list them by position, in the order that I think they'll exceed expectations.

DH: Billy Butler.
C: Chris Snyder, John Buck.
1B: Adam LaRoche, Conor Jackson. Also, for some reason, I think Mike Jacobs will have his best year in the majors, but I'm convinced he'll be anything more than an average 1B.
2B: Rickie Weeks, Aaron Hill.
3B: Alex Gordon, Hank Blalock, Ryan Zimmerman
SS: Julio Lugo
OF: Austin Kearns, Andre Ethier, Nick Markakis, Josh Hamilton, Jason Kubel, Jeremy Hermida, Jeff Francoeur. I'll let everyone else pimp Lastings Milledge, BJ Upton, and Josh Hamilton.
SP: (in no particular order) Randy Wolf, Kevin Slowey, Zach Greinke, Dustin McGowan, Andy Sonnanstine, Chuck James, Manny Parra, Johnny Cueto, Carlos Villanueva, Matt Garza, Edinson Volquez, Andrew Miller, Ervin Santana, Brian Bannister, Henry Vanden Hurk, Ubaldo Jiminez, Mike Hampton, Boof Bonser, Brian Bannister, John Danks. A lot of crapshoots in there, but I think at least a third of these pitchers will seriously surprise people.

Let's see how I do this year.</div>

Six weeks in:

Butler: .285, 9 runs, 1 HR, 15 RBI. Not doing it.
Snyder: .275, 11 runs, 2 HR, 18 RBI. Had a terrible start, but is on fire right now.
Buck: .258, 12, 2, 13--a decent backup catcher option
LaRoche: Awful
Conor Jackson: .325, 27, 5, 30. Possibly the biggest surprise so far.
Mike Jacobs: .271, 16, 9, 24. Hurt recently, but far exceeding everyone's expectations.
Weeks: hitting just .193 but has scored 30 runs, 5 HRs, and stolen 6 bases.
Aaron Hill: .264 13, 2, 15. A disappointment.
Alex Gordon: .281, 20, 5, 19. Pretty good.
Blalock: Was off to a good start hitting .300 with 3 HRs, but then got hurt.
Zimmerman: Has been terrible.
Lugo: Also been terrible
OFs: Only Josh Hamilton has exceeded expectations.

SPs: Hits are Edinson Volquez, John Danks, Zach Greinke, Ervin Santana.
Mediocre pitchers include Randy Wolf, Andy Sonnanstine, Dustin McGowan, Brian Bannister, Johnny Cueto.
Terrible pitchers include Chuck James, Manny Parra, Carlos Villanueva, Vanden Hurk, and Mike Hampton.

I managed to identify several of the top surprises of the year so far: Conor Jackson, Edinson Volquez, Ervin Santana, Josh Hamilton, but just as many players have been absolutely terrible. I did a particularly terrible job on the outfielders. The pitchers are about right--I figured about a third of the pitchers I named would be horrible, but hoped that a third would really surprise. I also identified Volquez as my top late-round pitching target.

 

I really like Alexei Ramirez of the White Sox and Fred Lewis of the Giants.

 

I like both of those guys also!

 

also, Guthrie of the Orioles has been pitching really, really well recently even though his record doesn't reflect it. I just acquired Guthrie, Delgado, Winn, and Pierzynski for Helton, Teahen, Snell, and Barajas. In my league, OBP is one of the categories, and Helton is a total god in that category.

My team is doing better, but we had a bad week last week. The first place team is SO far out in front, that they may be impossible to catch. They are the team with Volquez.

The Furcal injury is killing me. everyone has injuries, and I can cope with Weeks, Carlos Pena, Westbrook, Rafael Soriano, etc., but Furcal was hitting .360 and has missed six weeks already. I've been playing Wigginton (and recently Alexei Ramirez when Weeks went down), and I'm just hurting.

 

Here's the hitters scoring in my league:
R (1), 1B (1), 2B (2), 3B (3), HR (4), RBI (1), SB (2), CS (-1), BB (1), IBB (1), HBP (1), CYC (10)

Who do you think my best bet at catcher is: Miguel Olivo,Ramon Hernandez, Jason Kendall, Chris Snyder, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Yadier Molina, Dionar Navarro, Jesus Flores, or Jeff Clement?

 

what is CYC?

 

Cycle.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Kid Chocolate @ Jun 23 2008, 03:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Here's the hitters scoring in my league:
R (1), 1B (1), 2B (2), 3B (3), HR (4), RBI (1), SB (2), CS (-1), BB (1), IBB (1), HBP (1), CYC (10)

Who do you think my best bet at catcher is: Miguel Olivo,Ramon Hernandez, Jason Kendall, Chris Snyder, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Yadier Molina, Dionar Navarro, Jesus Flores, or Jeff Clement?</div>

Well, none of these players are consistent sure bets. There are a few we can eliminate, though. Kendall is horrible and should only be considered in leagues where you try to have the worst possible team. Saltalamacchia will be starting for the time being since Laird is on the DL, but he hasn't produced much in his short career so far, and it appears that the Rangers are no longer high on him--they have a catcher in AAA (who currently has a minor injury) who they like better,m and I could envision that they call him up at some point. Clement is a bit of a risk, it sounds like Seattle will give him a chance, but if he falters they won't hesitate to turn back to Johjima. It's also rare that a rookie catcher hits well.

I'm a fan of Chris Snyder, but he hasn't been as good this year as I thought he would be. He may have the most long-term potential of anyone on the list, that is, he's as good a bet as anyone to end up with the best stats by the end of the year. however, he hits low in the order, so he won't have much opportunity for runs and RBIs. He could hit the most HRs of the group, though.

I might go with Navarro or Flores, to tell you the truth. They are both hitting very well and look like they are for real. But I'd keep an eye on Snyder.

 

Into the fianl week--hopefully everyone is in the running for their league titles.

 

I had a mixed record in my "sleeper" list. Snyder did fine for a late-round catcher. I nabbed him in round 21 or so, and he was may starter for most of the year, and as good as catchers taken 5-10 rounds higher. Conor Jackson and Mike Jacobs were pretty good. Weeks and Aaron Hill were terrible, just terrible, as were the 3Bs on my list and Lugo. In the OF, Ethier had a strong second half, Hamilton was unbelievable, Markakis was about as expected, but the rest were duds. As far as the pitchers went, Garza, Volquez, Ervin Santana, and Danks all would have made absolutely great late-round picks and would have won every league if you took them. I think Greinke has been good in the second half. Sonnanstine, Parra, Cueto, and Jiminez were good enough to be spot-starters. I think McGowan was decent before getting hurt. Some of you laughed at Hampton, but he has been pretty good once he got over his injuries and started to pitch regularly after the All-Star break. It just took longer than I expected. The others were crap. Not a bad shooting percentage on low-cost pitchers this year. The hitters though . . . not as good.

 

This was my best post in this thread!

 

Probably my worst post in this thread.

 

Good luck! Kinsler was a total monster before he went down. Did you pick up Alexei Ramirez to replace him?

My team had a ten-week strong stretch and has been in first place for about a month now. I've been led by Lincecum and Cliff Lee (who I drafted in the very late rounds after many of my sleeper pitchers like Volquez and Danks had been taken. Boy was I pissed! Ha!), and recently Oliver Perez who I picked up mid-season. I also acquired Delgado and Rios before they got hot, and Alexei Ramirez and Fred Lewis were pretty strong pickups.

We have a good shot to win, but it is not over yet. We could still lose our division, and even if we lose the division, we could still lose in a head-to-head matchup against the winner of the other division, which is only the third or fourth best team overall, but matches up against us very well.