If you disagree with HCP, Eric has to agree with one of you. You just happened to come up heads this time.
Roy and Batum played from day 1. LMA played as well. Heck, even Sergio and Rudy played - so let's not be crazy about that.
Exactly. Zach isn't better than the players who are playing ahead of him. He isn't an average NBA player. Yet. He's 19. A rookie. One year of college. Didn't even start on his college team. Was injured in Summer League. Anyone who expects Zach to start right now on an NBA basketball team is setting themselves up for disappointment. I doubt anyone does. The question of whether he therefore should not have been the No. 10 pick is a different question. To some, it's crazy/stupid to "waste" a No. 10 pick on a guy who won't start right away. To others, if he has the potential to be worthy of the pick in a year or two, they are fine with the pick. I don't see any player we could have had instead who would have propelled us into the finals this season. I'm fine with the pick. To each their own.
And by the end of his rookie contract well probably resign him to a reasonable contract so we can develop him more. Saying what if.....
People need to relax. The kid is 19 and riding the bench behind older, more experienced NBA players. His best position is center, and we have Nurk and Ed Davis manning that position. Less than a week ago, people were calling for Stotts to be fired because he wasn't playing a Nurk enough minutes. Yet, somehow he's supposed to also be starting Zach Collins. A little perspective people. Collins is 19. Rudy Gobert, as a 21-year old rookie only played in 45 games, racking up scores of DNP-CDs and only averaged 9.6 MPG in the 45 games he actually got off the bench. He was two years older than Collins with lots of international experience, but was buried on the bench of a 25-win UTA team. But look at Gobert now. I don't think there is a single poster on this board that wouldn't love to have him on our team. So, can we at least wait more than 13 games into his rookie year before we label Zach Collins a bust? He's not playing because he's young, not ready and has older, more experienced players ahead of him. Same as Jermaine O'Neal and Rudy Gobert. There are no guarantees. He may very well turn out to be a bust. He could also turn out to be an average NBA starter, or he could develop into something special. It's way too early to say for sure. BNM
There is a very clear lack of understanding in this forum about how to use statistical models like this. They aren't claiming to predict every player with 100% accuracy. But it is suggesting that the probabilities are working against us and Zach given past data. I am curious how the model would change if age and / or minutes played in college was taken into account.
This is certainly true, and well put. However, I think there's another factor as well, which is why a previous post looked at Kevin Durant's extremely poor numbers during his first 10 games. Neither was ready physically to enter the NBA. Durant didn't receive in strength training in college and couldn't bench 185 (?) even once during the combine. Because of this Seattle decided to use him at SG, which was obviously his wrong position. Zach is a highly skilled, 2-way player right now. Nurk and arguably Turner are the only other ones on the whole team. The main problem isn't skill, or even experience, it's that he's getting pushed around every play because he's physically weak. Anyone who watched the first couple of summer league games noticed that he even got bullied there. Supposedly he's eating a ton, which when combined with resistance training will make him stronger. Physically, he's a 19 yo, and it's showing, he'll fill out. It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when. I do find the linked article interesting in the aggregate, but I don't think you can apply it to individual players without considering the specifics of the individual involved.
I don't really expect Collins to be starting or getting 20 minutes per game in his rookie season. It does worry me that he doesn't play at all and Stotts prefers basically everyone else. He should be getting at least some minutes, I cannot think of that many examples of players from recent drafts who would be drafted very high and not play at all. It's still very early into season though.
Maybe it's in the way you read it. Change the inflection of voice in your head. Put it in a different tone and it simply "Stop making excuses" and "Fucking better than our 10th pick...." Not STOP MAKING EXCUSES and FUCKING BETTER THAN OUR 10TH PICK!!!!!! You might want to get into a relaxed position to read?
Collins will get minutes after we make a trade involving at least one of Davis/Aminu/Vonleh. I will be shocked if at least one of them isn't traded by the deadline. I think the plan is to play that trio to build trade value, and/or see if we think Vonleh is worth holding on to.
