Early Bust Determination

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by GrandpaBlaze, Nov 15, 2017.

  1. Blazinaway

    Blazinaway Well-Known Member

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    LOL, this is what this forum excels at!
     
  2. Blazinaway

    Blazinaway Well-Known Member

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    In some cases I would agree, however Zach was drafted IMO as a project given that he played backup in college and is still 19. Now you can certainly say we should not have made that choice to draft a "project" who our GM thought had good upside but would take time. Frankly IMO its unfair to label him a bust at this time, however one IMO can certainly take issue with drafting him at all and trading up to do so.
     
  3. Chris Craig

    Chris Craig (Blazersland) I'm Your Huckleberry Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    13 games in come on. Collins has barely played and probably won't under Stotts unless injurys happen. Biggie has shown alot in the small amount of time he has played. I wouldn't call Vonleh a bust either just a late bloomer.
     
  4. kjironman1

    kjironman1 Well-Known Member

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    I can see this.... BUT! What happens if Davis/Aminu/Vonleh as the Blazers starting PF, backup PF and backup Center have this team in the 4th or 5th seed and playing .600 ball. 30-20 with 32 games left? Looking at 48-50 wins? Do you really bust that team up?
     
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  5. GrandpaBlaze

    GrandpaBlaze Predictions Game Master

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    Wow, I didn't post the reference to say Zach or Vonleh were busts, but that this was an indicator of potential busts.

    I agree that Vonleh is not a bust but neither is he really worthy of his place in the draft.

    Collins I think is far too early to tell especially with him being hurt in the pre-season. He is young. How high his potential, I don't know but remain hopeful.

    Gramps...
     
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  6. BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94

    BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94 AWOL

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    I hate how we always say Zach isn't ready... a lot of the PF rookies have shown at least flashes of being a good nba player. We have really yet to see him do anything noteworthy in an actual nba game. That's not a great sign.
     
  7. riverman

    riverman Writing Team

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  8. dviss1

    dviss1 Emcee Referee

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    But it's MM tho...
     
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  9. kjironman1

    kjironman1 Well-Known Member

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    Okay. I understand.
     
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  10. HomerLovesKoolAid

    HomerLovesKoolAid I have a well-known member.

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    Zach is going to be a player.

    If we give him Meyers-like time to develop he'll be ready in 2 years instead of not ready in 5.
     
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  11. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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    Appropos of Markelle Fultz: I wonder if they'll regret not taking Donovan Mitchell. They could've traded DOWN to do that. He's likely a better defender and may end up being better on offense. Fultz is probably a better PG, but they don't need Fultz for that.
     
  12. blazerboy30

    blazerboy30 Well-Known Member

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    So you criticized the article and method without reading it?

    To answer your question, it wasn't based on the first four games but on the first 10 games.

    The correlation isn't perfect but decent enough to be discussed.
     
  13. blazerboy30

    blazerboy30 Well-Known Member

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    Right. It's a single variable linear regression model. It's just suggesting probabilities not individual predictions with high accuracy.

    It would be interesting if the author expanded the model to include another feature such as age or college minutes played.
     
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  14. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    You do realize there's a difference in prospects being "NBA Ready" and "High Potential", right? You're not that ignorant, you're just posting an ignorant post because Zach Collins is white.
     
  15. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    Using Fultz in this article is stupid as hell. Give Steph Curry a bum shoulder than takes away his jumpshot and see how good he is... Curry would be just as bad as Fultz if he couldn't shoot. Fultz' game is opened up by his deadly pull-up jumpshot and spot up 3pt shot.

    So he's not himself at all, so the data isn't reflective of him as a player. However, this article tries to use it as if it is, and as if it shows signs that he's a bust.

    People calling Fultz a bust are extremely dumb. Wait till his shoulder gets healthy, and he plays like himself. If he struggles then, then there might be a case.
     
  16. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    My man, don't think that people like me, who have been complaining about the flaws of Stotts for years, are only basing the first 13 games of the season in our arguments to fire him. This is where those who want Stotts gone compared to those who think Collins is a bust are different. Those who want Stotts gone are basing it off a large body of work, while those who think Collins is a bust are basing it off of less than 30min of play when the kid is 19.
     
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  17. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    I think he is talented enough to if he puts on weight. Whether he puts on weight fast enough remains to be seen.
     
  18. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    Exactly. The dude needs strength.

    He has great footwork in the low-post, he just gets knocked off his spots and can't throw his weight around to get good shots. He also has a quick solid face-up game, but gets knocked off-balance when he drives because of a lack of strength.

    Defensively, he's a great help-side defender and has a great feel, but suffers in low-post defense only, and it's due to a lack of strength.

    And the boards, he gets bumped off the ball a little too much due to a lack of strength.

    Adding strength fixes all of those problems. Once he adds strength and gets a better feel for the game, he'll be a very good player.

    BUT THE IGNORANT OPINION IS... "He's barely played 13 games in, and he was a #10 pick. And he's white, like Meyers. Therefore, he's a bust." These people aren't actually looking at what he is as a player, or that he's 19 years old. How many people declaring him as a bust are basing it off his skills? They're not. They see one or two bad plays in garbage time where Collins isn't playing his best role because he's trying to post up despite his lack of strength. He'll make a good move with good footwork that would be extremely effective if he had the proper strength.

    Quit calling this kid a bust. It's not based on any relevant skill that he doesn't have. He adds strength, gets a good feel, and he'll be good.
     
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  19. Strenuus

    Strenuus Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Youre funny when you get worked up. I laugh way too hard at it. I'm sorry.

    I know, I know, you'll say you're not worked up. But it's still funny regardless.
     
  20. Mediocre Man

    Mediocre Man Mr. SportsTwo

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    No, I'm responding to someone saying Collins is behind a bunch of players. Our 10th pick should beat out our 26th pick.
     

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