I was going to post essentially the same, and I agree on all counts. The LaMarcus bashing is old and stale.
Not to argue for the sake of arguing, but George was the 10th pick. Hibbert - 17th. They got West through FA. George Hill was acquired for the 15th pick. Lance Stephenson was a second rounder. Their bench is trash. But it's not like they went into the purgatory to get their current lineup.
So if they suck again this year (with the floor being bottom 5 at worst), taht will be 3 years of being a bottom 10 team in the league. How many bottom 10 finishes do you think they need before they can think about winning again?
I don't get this whole "if you get knocked out in the first round of the playoffs or get a late lottery pick your team is in mediocre NBA hell". A young team, which is what the Blazers are, doesn't just suddenly go from nothing to a contender, hell look at OKC like everyone always points had a year of the "NBA Mediocre hell" because they barely made it into 8th and got there asses handed to them by the Lakers. Rarely do teams go on to become contenders without one of these "NBA Mediocre Hell" years as they try and turn the team from something Raw into something polished. You have to look at it as a stepping stones, you have to make the playoffs before you can become a contender and if you don't try to make them and instead just give up on the team because "you don't have the talent" and trade everyone your NEVER going to get back to the playoffs until you draft a Derrick Rose or Kevin Durant to go along with other talent you've correctly put around them.
I think the people referring to mediocre hell or purgatory are talking about many years making the 7th or 8th seed, or just missing the playoffs. most of those teams struggle to get really good OKC, which you brought up got really bad, and then acquired Durant and Westbrook Chicago did as well in acquiring Rose Portland did in acquiring Roy, Aldridge and Oden There are way more teams than not who built their team by being shitty. Especially small market teams. Some teams got lucky in the draft and found a Hibbert or through trade and got a Marc Gasol. That is more an exception than a rule though
I don't think we need more suckage to get better, we just need to make the most out of the opportunities we have. Of course, if there is any truth to the rumor of Cleveland trading us the 1st pick as art of a package for LMA, that would be instant rebuild. But even if we keep the 10th pick, we can still get a very valuable piece. As mentioned, Paul George was a 10th pick. So was Paul Pierce, Jason Terry, Brook Lopez, Joe Johnson and Andrew Bynum. And that's just former 10th picks. There are lots of all-stars and hall of famers that have been taken below 10. While getting a higher pick improves your odds, it doesn't guarantee anything. Oden was a 1 pick. So was Bargnani, Kwame and Ollowokandi. Thabeet, Beasley, Darko and Stromile Swift were all 2 picks. Sucking only guarantees one thing - you SUCK. No thanks. I've had enough of the losing. I want to win as many games as possible and I want to start NOW. No more tanking or sandbagging. Olshey hit a homerun with Lillard at 6 last year. I want to see what he can do with the 10th pick and a lot of cap space this summer. He has a LOT of options in free agency and unbalanced trades that take advantage of our cap space. Once we start winning, we will be a more desirable destination for free agents - not the prima donnas like LeBron, but the solid, proven veterans we need to fill out our bench. Remember when guys like Scottie Pippen and Rod Stickland wanted to play for Portland? Shit, we don't even need guys like that. Our starting five was competitive last season. It was our bench that totally sucked. If we can just fill out our bench with solid veterans like Jarrett Jack, J.J. Reddick, Samuel Dalembert, etc. we would easily win 10 more games and make the plyoffs. And that's a start - something to build on. As they gain post season experience, guys like Lillard, Batum, Leonard, Claver, etc. will continue to improve. That helps us directly, but also increases their trade value which opens up the possibility to make a block buster trade at some point. Multiple young, cheap assets and expiring contract are usually the best bait for landing a disgruntled star from a team that is looking to blow it up and start over. This notion that you have to totally suck and get top 5 draft packs several years in a row to hope to compete is bullshit. The Clippers did it for YEARS and continued to suck. It wasn't until they moved cheap young players and expiring contracts for a proven star that they became competitive. Look at Minnesota. How many top 5 picks have they had over the last decade? Where has it gotten them? They still SUCK. Same with Charlotte. Being mediocre is NOT the worst place to be. It's part of the natural continuum between bad and good. Even the Jordan Bulls went through that phase (multiple first round exits) before they started winning championships. The only team in recent memory that went from sucking to contender overnight was the 2007-08 Celtics - and they didn't do it by years of sucking and high lottery picks. They did it with a single top 5 pick (Jeff Green to Seattle for Ray Allen). All the other assets they used to rebuild were lower draft picks (Al Jefferson, a 15th pick was the key to the Kevin Garnett deal). Perpetually sucking is the WORST place to be. So, no more sucking please. Draft smart, trade smart, use that cap space wisely, get these young guys some post season experience and build the bench with proven, quality veterans with post season experience. I'm tired of moving backwards. Let's start moving forward. If we start winning, quality guys will want to come here to play with Lillard the same way they've signed with the Clippers to play with Chris Paul, the Suns to play with Steve Nash and the Bulls to play with Derrick Rose. Continually sucking, combined with undesirable weather, is one sure way to make sure no good free agents will want to play here. Start winning and making the playoffs and good quality mid-level veteran free agents will suddenly start putting Portland on their short list of preferred destinations. Let the Minnesotas and Charlottes continue to suck year after year after year. I want to see some forward progress. BNM
For every team you mentioned that has bombed out in the lottery, I can name 2 or 3 that have had winning teams because of it. Just because their franchises drafted poorly, doesn't mean it's a bad plan.
At least two, along with some crazy draft luck (i.e., close to Lillard and Roy). We not only require a stronger starting lineup, but an actual bench.
I'm not sure we as fans understand the body blows to this franchise that were Roy and GO, as well as our shit drafting of Babbitt, Nolan and Williams. The team was perfectly built (except for PG, and if Roy, LA and Oden were healthy, any of us could have played the point and been fine). It takes teams years to recover from those, and for us it's only been two. Our plan was destroyed and building on the fly isn't easy. We got REALLY lucky with Lillard. We're going to need to get really lucky again, both with starting talent (at the top of the draft) and lower picks (to have an effective bench).
It's a bad plan because the lottery is such a crap shoot. And, even if you luck out and get one of the greatest players of his generation, he can still leave as a free agent when he gets tired of losing. Again, sucking only guarantees one thing - that you SUCK. I'm tired of losing and want to see some forward progress. How many of those teams that were built through multiple consecutive trips to the lottery actually won championships? For every team you can name that has made it to the finals by years of sucking, I can name multiple teams that have won championships that haven't. What you and other call getting lucky, I call being smart. Look at the Spurs. They have won 4 championships and are on their way to the finals and a possible 5th title. They've had exactly one lottery pick in the last 23 years. Since drafting Tim Duncan 16 years ago, they have won those 4 titles without drafting anyone higher than 20. Look at their current roster. Tony Parker was a 28th pick. Manu Ginobili was a 57th pick. Tiago Splitter was a 28th pick. Kawhi Leonard was picked 15th by the Pacers and acquired by trade for George Hill was was picked 26th by the Spurs. Outside of Duncan, their entire starting line -up was acquired via very late 1st round and second round picks. And then they fill out their bench with guys like Gary Neal was wasn't even drafted. You can call that luck, but when it's part of a pattern, I call it smart. The Cavs sucked for years and won the LeBron sweepstakes and have exactly one finals appearance and zero titles to show for it. OKC had top 4 picks 3 years in a row, have made it to the finals once and are already regressing due to stupid management decisions). And these are the successful teams that were built through the lottery. Minnesota had 7 picks in the top half of the lottery over a 6 year period, is still one of the worst teams in the league and has ZERO playoff appearances to show for it. Pardon me if I don't like that "plan". We have two solid players to build around in Aldridge and Lillard - one a veteran and one just coming off his rookie year. So, let the building (NOT rebuilding!) begin. Get them a bench and use the 10th pick plus all that cap room to get a solid starting center and a good wing player. From the list above, some of the best centers in the league were taken at 10 or below, and there are always plenty of very solid 2/3s available at 10 and below in every draft. Every year, 1/3 - 1/2 the players in the all star game were drafted at 10 or below. The 10th pick plus a ton of cap space should be enough to get this team up to a 6 - 8 seed next season and then they can fine tune the roster from there. BNM
Was it luck or smart drafting? Olshey helped turn the Clippers around. He went after Hibbert and drafted Lillard. In terms of evaluating talent, he's the best GM the Blazers have had in over 20 years (and that includes both Whitsitt and Pritchard). Remember back when the Blazers regularly picked up great talent with late first round picks and second round picks? Guys like Terry Porter, Jerome Kersey, Cliff Robinson, etc.? Heck, even Clyde was a 14th pick. The Spurs still do it routinely. I like Olshey's ability to evaluate talent and assemble a roster. I give him a pass for last year's weak bench. He wasn't trying to build a win now roster last season. He was more interested in preserving cap space and flexibility moving forward. I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do with that cap space and the 10th pick (whether he keeps it, trades it for proven player, or moves up in the draft - lots of options). BNM
That one Spurs lottery pick is the best PF in the history of the league, and arguably the 1-3 player in the entire league since he has been here. The way I see it, all three are great, and most likely either HOFers or will get consideration. However, without Duncan that teams wins zero championships. How many teams have won a title without having a significant player from the lottery on it? Either their own or via trade or FA? Lillard is great, and Aldridge is a nice complimentary player, but we need a HUGE influx of talent. the way small market teams like Portland get that is through the lottery
Great point. I think it was a bit of both. he drafted for need, and got lucky dame was as good as he has been, but swung and missed on Leonard
You just changed the criteria from multiple high lottery picks (multiple years of suckage) to ONE significant player from the lottery. That's a BIG difference in your position. We already have TWO significant players from the lottery in Aldridge and Lillard. If you get to change the criteria, so do I. How many top 5 picks taken since 1997 (the year Duncan was drafted) have won championships (or better still, how many have been the best player on a championship team)? Here's the top 5 draft picks over the last 15 years: 1st Pick: 2012 Anthony Davis 2011 Kyrie Irving 2010 John Wall 2009 Blake Griffin 2008 Derrick Rose 2007 Greg Oden 2006 Andrea Bargnani 2005 Andrew Bogut 2004 Dwight Howard 2003 Lebron James 2002 Yao Ming 2001 Kwame Brown 2000 Kenyon Martin 1999 Elton Brand 1998 Michael Olowokandi 2nd Pick: 2012 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 2011 Derrick Williams 2010 Evan Turner 2009 Hasheem Thabeet 2008 Michael Beasley 2007 Kevin Durant 2006 LaMarcus Aldridge 2005 Marvin Williams 2004 Emeka Okafor 2003 Darko Milicic 2002 Jay Williams 2001 Tyson Chandler 2000 Stromile Swift 1999 Steve Francis 1998 Mike Bibby 3rd Pick: 2012 Bradley Beal 2011 Enes Kanter 2010 Derrick Favors 2009 James Harden 2008 O.J. Mayo 2007 Al Horford 2006 Adam Morrison 2005 Deron Williams 2004 Ben Gordon 2003 Carmelo Anthony 2002 Mike Dunleavy 2001 Pau Gasol 2000 Darius Miles 1999 Baron Davis 1998 Raef LaFrentz 4th Pick: 2012 Dion Waiters 2011 Tristan Thompson 2010 Wesley Johnson 2009 Tyreke Evans 2008 Russell Westbrook 2007 Mike Conley 2006 Tyrus Thomas 2005 Chris Paul 2004 Shaun Livingston 2003 Chris Bosh 2002 Drew Gooden 2001 Eddy Curry 2000 Marcus Fizer 1999 Lamar Odom 1998 Antawn Jamison 5th Pick: 2012 Thomas Robinson 2011 Jonas Valanciunas 2010 DeMarcus Cousins 2009 Ricky Rubio 2008 Kevin Love 2007 Jeff Green 2006 Shelden Williams 2005 Raymond Felton 2004 Devin Harris 2003 Dwyane Wade 2002 Nickoloz Tskitishvili 2001 Jason Richardson 2000 Mike Miller 1999 Jonathan Bender 1998 Vince Carter That's really quite shocking. In the last 15 drafts, one No. 1 pick, one No. 2 pick, two No. 3 picks, two No. 4 picks and one No. 5 pick have won an NBA championship, and of those, only LeBron was the best player on his championship team - and NOT for the team that drafted him. In fact, not a single player drafted top 5 in the last 15 years has won a championship for the team that drafted him. Still think years of suckage and high lottery picks is the best way to win an NBA title? P.S. What's really scary is Adam Morrison is the last top 5 pick to win a championship - as a seldom used scrub for a team that didn't draft him. BNM
We had lots of needs. He took who he thought was BPA. He was right. Not sure if he swung and missed on Leonard. I think it's too soon to make that call. He knew he was a project that would take years to develop. It's not like anyone taken after Leonard was a sure thing and made an immediate impact. BNM
I agree with BNM on Leonard. You haven't been bashful with your disdain for him, MM, and Lord knows the guy needs a ton of work, but he's got good athleticism and a good shooting touch. I think he can learn to be at least decent on the defensive end. A ton of bigs have made long careers with a lot less in the way of talent.
How many other players in last year's draft have the potential to be a franchise player? One? Davis? That's all I really see. Of course, when you go 19/6 your rookie year, and everybody other than Davis pretty much was below league average, the "upside" argument may be relative.
