Evidence that "Atheism" is not a sound belief

You'd think so, wouldn't you? Turns out probability has a few tricks up its sleeve...

 

what denny is saying is random chance and "goddidit" are not the only possiblities. evolution is neither of those.

 

The 3rd option is the most likely.

Somebody NOT very intelligent, wearing a helmet, maybe a 45 IQ or so, wasted his time spelling out some other guy's name with toothpicks.

Still waiting for you to prove god exists, which is obviously the only way to support your thread title.

 

Or directly related.

 

We are all related, MARIS. No need for that.

 

False. False. False. Not entirely true. Don't necessarily need a gazillion. Could be instantaneous. Could take a gazillion.

Wow. So you start a thread telling people why their "belief" is wrong. You put together poor or faulty "evidence" to prove this. You say you aren't trying to prove anything, but to use evidence is to make an attempt to prove. You ignore comments from people, or write them off to tell you why information is wrong. People respond mocking some of it, and then you seem offended. As if everyone should be so enlightened to sit and listen, and just basically sit and shut up. Now imagine someone doing the same to you about your beliefs. Would they whine when you mocked their "proof"? Yeah, we all can't wait for the next one either. Somehow, I'm sure it'll be the one that proves your point. And you talk of arrogance.

 

Yep nature did one heck of a job didn't it?

Please tell me why I should switch doors?

 

Okay so because the game show host knows where the door is; and asks do I want to switch; gives you a higher probability to get the car?

 

You should read it again. The general consensus from your camp holds true. Am I lying?

 

3 doors each door 33.333333% chance. Door number 3 was the goat. So now it's 66% of 100?

 

Are you lying about 1-5? Well, I wouldn't say lying, necessarily. But you're wrong, and ignoring what people have said to you over 8 pages if that is what you get from it. As much as you want to learn, and you keep asking people to explain to you, teach you, and show why. And get mad when they don't read your posts, watch your videos, etc. And what you got out of people's explanations of, at the least, 1-2 is "I am told I don't know so I am wrong to question it." That's just blatantly ignoring what everyone is saying, and, essentially, pouting. Feel free to trot out your remaining 4 or 5 so they can be shot down, and then you can say you are right, and we can all go on.

 

Not at all. As you state in your example, the watch already exists. No creator/designer is required.

You just need to hire an illegal alien to assemble it for you.

 

It's a cool probability trick.

The sleight-of-hand happens when you assume (as I did, when I first heard it) that the second choice is completely unrelated to the first, and therefore should be calculated fresh as a 50/50 choice. This isn't correct.

The right way to look at it is to start at the beginning. You have a 1/3 chance to pick the prize the first time, and a 2/3 chance to pick a goat. Let's look at each option individually, assuming that we always switch doors at the second stage. If you pick the prize right the first time, and then switch doors, you will obviously fail the game -- this represents a 1/3 chance of failure using our strategy. Now let's say that we picked goat #1 on our initial choice. The host will reveal the second goat, and thus by switching to the third door we win the prize. This is a 1/3 chance of success, based on our strategy. Finally, if we choose goat #2 with our first pick, Monty will then reveal goat #1, ensuring our victory by switching doors. Added with the previous 1/3 chance of success, this makes a 2/3 chance of getting a prize.

So, if you switch doors on the second choice, you have a 2/3 chance at victory -- the only way you fail is if you happen to initially pick the door with the prize. On the other hand, if you stick with your initial choice, you only have a 1/3 chance of success -- you have to nail it the first time, or not at all.

 

2 and 3 chance?