Bowen was the prototypical 3D guy. He shot .393 from 3pt for his career. But his career PER was 8.2. He didn't offer much more than the 3s and D. Jimmy's career PER is 14.2. He's going to demand more than Bowen did.
I understand the PER thing. Butler's a more active rebounder and gets to the line with greater regularity. Bowen's an undisputed 5th scoring option on a contending team. With many contending teams, Butler would be the 5th scoring option. Best case with the 2014-15 Bulls, he's the 4th scoring option on a potentially offensively-challenged team. I still don't see a great difference in value between the two and I don't see Butler as being worth much more than the full MLE.
Why would anyone pay Taj more than MLE? He was an 8PPG/5 RPG guy who blocked 1.3 shots per game, and a sub-par FG%. Never made the all-defense teams. Yet here he is, making $9M at the end of his current deal. I think the answer is that what teams value changes, especially with the new CBA and with the in-game rules.
Bigs are always going to be valued more highly, in relative terms, than wings. Gibson is a highly-respected defensive big who has averaged 13.4 points, 9.2 rebounds and 2 blocks per 36 minutes over his career. He's not overpaid IMO. Butler's a highly-respected defensive wing who has averaged 12 points, 5.1 rebounds and 2.2 assists per 36 minutes over his career. Gibson's worth more IMO.
You might also look at the guys who signed this year. From Chandler Parsons and Gordon Hayward to Trevor Ariza and Deng. Butler scored 13.1 PPG with 4.9 REB and 2.6 AST and 1.9 STL with a low 1.5 TO and made 2nd team all defense.
Butler is good and I like him but if he actually gets a max offer (and I am skeptical that he would) there is no way The Bulls should match. That is ridiculous. A good contract? Sure. Max? Yeah..no. Not so much.
Transplant, This is the type of argument that I think could net Jimmy a big contract in free agency whereas the Bulls might not have any substantive offers via trade. I get the feeling that some GM is going to strike out in free agency on the Alphas and the Betas, and then is going to be stuck with a bag of cash, looking around for an acquisition who could be a star. And with those above types of numbers, and the all-defensive second team nod, you could convince yourself that Butler could be that guy even if he's shooting doesn't improve. You'd be wrong though. Parsons, Hayward, Ariza and Deng are all are at least passable shooters.
Perhaps I'm being overly pessimistic but I feel like neither of them is going to amount to more than solid role players. Kind of like how we were so involved in the JC-KH wars back in the day when neither of them amounted to anything soon enough where it could actually help the franchise.
Defensively I think they're about equal. I'd guess that if you were to poll NBA GM's with a question like "If you had to pick a guy to guard Lebron in a best of 7 series who would you choose?" Jimmy's name would come up quite a bit. Offensively Jimmy clearly has a lot more upside, although he also has a lot to prove. It's mostly a question of what Jimmy Butler we'll get. Bruce Bowen had a PER below 10 his last 10 years in the league. He was never more than an after thought. The only thing he could do well was the corner 3, which he didn't begin to make in volume until he was 29. Jimmy, with all his worts, I think has clearly shown to have more capabilities on that side of the floor. As for salary comps, I'm not sure he's the best comparison either. His career in general was a bit of an anomaly, and he didn't really find his niche in the league until he was 30, at which point no one was willing to pay him for future improvements. Jimmy will be 25 after this season. It's also a different CBA. And there's going to be a big salary cap increase. And Avery Bradley and Trevor Ariza both got 8 million per last offseason. So if Jimmy has a good season (16+ PER, 38%+ 3PFG, high minutes, usual defense) and his two-way capabilities are showcased in the postseason, then I won't be surprised at all if a team offers him close to 10 million. That's just slightly overpaying him, which is usually what it takes to sign a good RFA. If his offense doesn't move at all from last season I think his FA changes considerably, unless some GM is really reckless. But I still see him getting at least 6 million per season no matter what. 8 million is the middle range of what we should expect his next contract will be IMO.
Don't like the Bowen comparison? OK, how about Tony Allen? He's a highly-regarded defender (3 All Defense teams) who isn't much of a shooter, but scores about 14 points per 36 minutes on decent efficiency (.538 career TS%). Never made $5mil in a season. Or how about Ronnie Brewer? For his first 3 years in the league, Brewer is a reasonable comp and maybe a cautionary tale. Like Butler, Brewer didn't play much in his rookie year with the Jazz. Then, again like Butler, he got significant burn in his next two seasons. And like Butler, Brewer is a defensive-oriented player who can play either the SG or SF position. Brewer's PERs his first 3 seasons were 15.2, 18.4 and 16.1. Brewer's never made $5mil in a season. Alas poor Ronnie was never able to make himself an adequate shooter. As a result, he's now a vet minimum player, and an unsigned one at that. Anyway, while I can see paying over the MLE for an offensively-challenged big (like Asik), I don't feel the same way about a wing. I like Butler and hope his 2014-15 is more like his 2012-13 season where he showed signs of being a true plus player on both ends of the court. If that happens, I'll be more comfortable with him as a starter and with paying him a salary well above the MLE.
True, but not the whole story. As I'm sure you know, while New Orleans is actually paying Asik the $15mil, the cap hit is only $8.4mil. Further explanation.
Yep, that's the cap hit. If the Bulls matched, it'd have been 5/5/15 on their books. In spite of the cap hit figures, Omer was paid $5M/$5M and will be paid $15M. http://www.shamsports.com/2013/07/omer-asik-and-jeremy-lins-contract.html From now until the date the contracts expire, Lin and Asik will have cap numbers of $8,374,646 in each season, along with being paid $5.225 million this season and $14,898,938 next.
We're so on the same page that we each used the exact same ShamSports.com article as our source FYI, the upcoming season is the 3rd and final year of the Asik-Lin contracts.
