I question the executive's sincerity. What's your best move if you're worried that the Bulls may sign a two guard that you like? Leak something, something about a max deal.
Hi Transplant. I think we generally agree that Jimmy's offensive production has a very big multiplier on his contract value this offseason. If he stays the same or regresses he's probably not going to get much above the MLE. Perhaps I perceive a higher arc on his contract value if he shoots well, and therefore see a 10 millionish/year contract an outcome that you live with even if you don't really like it. Agree that Jimmy on the max is loony. How does a GM who thinks like that get a job? Maybe we should start buying a booth at the next Sloan conference and advertise ourselves for the position. Our opinions can't be any worse than that guy. Ronnie Brewer and Tony Allen are better comparisons, but I don't think they're going to end up being the ones that determine Jimmy's deal for three reasons: 1). Different CBA. 2). Brewer and to a lesser extent Tony Allen were the victims of unusual circumstance that you probably can't count on for a guy in Jimmy's situation. 3). Greater perceived offensive upside with Jimmy. Let me explain: I think Ronnie's injury in his fourth year had a large effect on his next contract. He had a very effective two years before that in Utah, but when he hit FA he had to deal with the spectre of having persistent injury problems to go along with the 12 PER he had that year. Tony Allen's career arc reminds me a lot of Bruce Bowen's: a late round draft pick who was great at defense but so bad at offense that you had to scheme how to keep the ball out of his hands. He was an effective but small minute player until he found a uniquely good fit in Memphis. I think Butler's usefulness is more generalizable than both of those guys which makes him more valuable. Tony Allen has never averaged more than 30 mpg in a season, and Brewer did it twice in his glory years in Utah. Allen and Brewer look to me like guys who achieved their offensive efficiency the Tyson Chandler way: remove yourself entirely from the offense except for the one or two things you can do well, which is they've never been big minute players. You can basically forget about them on the other side of the ball and dare them to beat you. I think Jimmy has more offensive upside, even if he's struggled on that side of the ball. He's shown the ability to shoot from the outside in a way neither of those two have, and he has some unique capabilities with the ball in his hands, even if they're under developed. Plus I also think the default outcome for a guy his age that can play big minutes is to get a decent contract unless something unusual gets in the way, like it did with Brewer. I still think Avery Bradley, Lance Stephenson, and Trevor Ariza are going to end up being the comps if he has a decent season.
At SG: Beal, Waiters, Meeks, Hardaway Jr. At G: Dragic, Ellis, Stuckey. At GF: Harden, DeRozan, George, Klay Thompson, Afflalo, Wes Matthews. Figure where Jimmy fits in with those guys.
Rosenthal, you may be overthinking it or I may be underthinking it...or we could both be way off. I find it interesting that there's been no talk about an extension for Butler and that was my main motivation for the thread. Near as I can tell, no Bulls fan dislikes Butler. It really becomes a dollars thing, and when that gets around to the average fans, it's not their money and they don't get the longer-term on-court financial implications. Here's the thing. The Bulls are back over the cap. This means that each year, barring a big-time trade, the best player they'll be able to add to their team will be a MLE-type player. If they think that Butler is an above MLE-type player, they need to re-sign him. The awful part of this for me is that I'm just not sure about him as a player. I really hope that I'm not on the fence after this season.
They can sign him for $10M+ and trade him for a $10M+ salary (I expect a good player for that money), going well over the cap. If they sign him to $10M+, they can go over the cap, too. They can sign him for $10M and trade him for 2x $5M players. I wouldn't think the Bulls have their hands tied.
