#1 picks from Magic (1979) to Anthony Davis (2012). You can throw Bennett in to make a stab, I guess, but I wanted to give time to get established in the League: 11 MVPs (of 33) 6 HoFers (10 if you count Shaq, Iverson, LeBron and Duncan) 28 All-Stars So, you have about an 85% chance of getting an all-star, 1/3 chance of an MVP and a 30% chance of a HoFer with the first pick. And those numbers are including misfires like Oden over Durant and Bargnani over LMA. With respect to the 538 gang (I haven't read their methodology), history speaks pretty loudly on this one. But if you dig deeper to #2s, it gets interesting. Here's some stats from "bleacher report, lol..." because they did the work I was about to waste a bunch of time doing,... So while this shows that tanking in general (especially if you're a dumb front office) isn't a stellar plan, if you do happen to get the first pick you have a pretty good shot at an absolute stud--or leaving one for the team picking #2.
Neither of those players are anywhere close to "Drexler-type" players. As much as I hate Melo, he is the closest to that level.
Ironically you started in 1979. From 70-78 we had 3 over all #1 picks. LaRue Martin Bill Walton Mychal Thompson Those three were pretty diverse. Bust, Superstar who got injured, and Solid player.
True, but I think derozan is a high level wing that fits lillards arc and would be great at driving and getting to the rim for us. If we could get a top player at c or sf In the draft this year, and put a package together for derozan I'd feel good about our team next offseason
Maybe I just haven't seen him enough, but I think of DeRozan in the same way as I think of Monta Ellis, Kevin Martin, Iggy, Tyreke Evans, etc - if they're a key starter you might win a lot of games, but you're never going to be a serious contender.
I am confused. I guess it depends who he is surrounded by. I get that he did not start all year, but he did in the finals.
He started 3 games - it was a coaching adjustment. But Iggy was NOT a starter for the Warriors. Throughout his career when he was a starter his teams went nowhere. Also, the more I think about it the more I find the GSW championship to be the least impressive in recent memory. I put an asterisk next to their's and DAL's championships.
If we drafted a Junior guard in the lottery who came in and averaged 8/3/2 shooting .250 from 3pt in his first season we would probably be very disappointed (yes, that was Drexler). A lot of these guys we are trying out are not much different in age from Drexler his first season. It's all about shots on goal and I think we have some decent candidates.
Pass on Carmelo. Derozan would fit the best age-wise. I don't know if we have the assets to trade for him right now, but if the Blazers end up with a top-4 or so pick in next year's draft, I could see something being worked out.
There's no chance I'd trade a top 4 pick for derozan. Anyways, pretty sure he has a player option for next season, I imagine he'll be opting out and looking for big money. If we want him, we can just sign him.
By "work something out", I didn't mean to imply a straight trade for Derozan. Maybe another team is involved, an exchange of picks, additional players...the options are endless. Just meant to say that if we have a high draft pick, then it opens other doors than just using that pick to take a chance on the BPA. But, hey, if we can just sign Derozan using cap space, I'd be down with that plan.
On the other hand the Lakers backcourt could be set for a while with Russell and Clarkston. I guess he could play SF.
