I think most teams undergo injuries to guys at the Blake/Oden level. Probably nearly all teams do. (Just like most teams probably expect to have one guy surprise them with a breakout year--as Batum has for us.) And the depth of the Blazers makes them even more able to withstand injury setbacks. The key is to avoid injuries to your elite players more than anything, and Portland has been reasonably lucky there. Roy has missed 4, and Aldridge hasn't missed any. The big reason I see that my 55 win prediction is a little bit of a stretch is that I just overrated Rudy and Oden. As good as Rudy has been, I thought he'd be more dominant. He just looked so good in the Gold Medal game, and I bought into the hype. But his midrange shot has been surprisingly bad, and he hasn't been the assist guy I thought he'd be. Teams have learned to play him for the 3 pointer or the lob. That's ok, though--I can see the other tools in him and he'll get there eventually. And I hadn't anticipated how much foul trouble Oden would have. Shaq averaged 4 fouls a game in his first year, and he was older, he'd played basketball the season before, and he wasn't 3 steps slowed from microfracture surgery. And now it's more of a "guard's game" where it's easier for big men to pick up fouls by playing slashers too physically. I should have taken that lesson to heart. In hindsight it seems pretty obvious that my expectations of him weren't that realistic. In the final stretch I'm hoping an easier schedule and more experience for Oden and Fernandez will lead to a higher winning percentage than we've seen so far.
When I posted that I didn't realize two people have picked that. After looking I don't even know who the other poster is.
So after 56 votes over 83% of the voters think we'll hit at least 50 wins. I think we've got it in us to make it happen! Playoffs baby!
I guessed 50 before the regular season began, and I suppose I'll stick with it. I'm hoping for 52-54, though...
i went with 49. Just went game by game After tonight's Houston loss. That's just 14-12 with 13 home games remaining. I went very conservative to the point of almost going with "sure" wins and "sure" losses. Didn't try and steal any games either way because those end up canceling each other out anyway. Hope it's enough. It should be.
