Zombie Fire Olshey

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Fez Hammersticks, Dec 26, 2016.

  1. Minstrel

    Minstrel Top Of The Pops Global Moderator

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    Hello darkness, my old friend
    Part of the reason for the overvaluing is because we're looking at the Harkless of this season. But the Harkless of this season is a different animal largely because he's hitting three-pointers at a solid clip. He wasn't in past seasons. If you take Harkless and remove the ability to shoot threes, it's very apparent why no one else had interest.

    If Olshey predicted that Harkless would start nailing threes at a decent rate (and this actually continues and isn't a half-season fluke), then it's a smart buy by Olshey that other GMs missed. If Olshey didn't see this coming and just got lucky, then he probably paid Harkless about what he was worth and Harkless' current bargain appearance is good fortune. Either way, there wasn't much reason for Olshey to pay Harkless more, even if Olshey had more money to spend--pre-2016 Harkless wasn't worth more and no one else was building in a revamped three-point shot.
     
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  2. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    OK (literally), that's what I get for using a source from OK. From the site newsOK.com, the official web site of the Oklahoma City Oklahoman:

    NBA: Clarifying the Luxury Tax System
    • Teams over the luxury tax line are limited to a “Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception” (MLE) for signing free agents. Players can be signed for up to three seasons under this form of the exception. For 2014-15, the starting salary of this exception is worth $3.278 million. The starting salary increases each year. The “Non-Taxpayer” flavor of this exception can sign players for up to four seasons starting at $5.305 million.
    • Tax paying teams cannot use a smaller, though valuable, exception known as the “Bi-Annual Exception”. Teams can’t use this two years in a row, hence the name. It can be used to sign players for up to two seasons and has a starting salary of $2.077 million. It also increases in value each year.
    • Taxpayers face restrictions when making trades. They cannot acquire a player via sign-and-trade. They can take back only up to 125 percent, plus $100,000 of outgoing salaries in other trades. Teams below the tax line have more flexibility.
    So, even with this misunderstanding, seeing that we're currently only $26K under the tax threshold, matching an offer to Harkless starting at $14 million (istead of the $8.988 million he got from us) would have pushed us over the apron this year and next. So, the penalties would still apply.

    So, as I said if another GM would have offered Mo and contract starting at $14 million a year, he would have really been holding Neil's feet to the fire. Thankfully, no other GM thought Mo was worth that much. Well, at least no other GM that had that kind of money to offer.

    BNM
     
  3. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    Exactly. No one else was going to offer Harklesss a deal starting at $14 million a year based on his performance to date.

    He was a starter his rookie year, saw his production and role diminish over the next two seasons in ORL to the point where he fell out the the rotation and was given away for nothing. While we were thrilled to get him for nothing, his production last year, in his fourth season in the league, was basically back to where it was as a rookie. Four years in the league, given multiple opportunities to start, and no significant improvement isn't exactly the resume' of someone commanding $14 million a year, even in today's climate.

    BNM
     
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  4. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    I think the last chance to get under the LT is trade deadline, in 2018.
     
  5. blue9

    blue9 Well-Known Member

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    Well, to anyone with eyeballs not named Terry Stotts, it was fairly obvious he was our best option at SF since early last season. Unfortunately for him it took the better part of a season before his coach realized this.
     
  6. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Mo was a major factor in our overachieving, record-wise, and advancing to the 2nd round.

    Guys like that have historically received good offers. Crabbe is one example, and Eddie Robinson is another (going back a ways for an obvious other example).

    Mo averaged 11PPG/5 RPG, and shot .341 from 3pt in the playoffs. He's only 22, so he has room to grow.

    I could see another team making a toxic offer just to screw NO over. We're lucky it didn't happen.
     
  7. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    Yeah, I wasn't disputing anything else that you had posted. Just wanted to clarify the repeater vs apron bit.
     
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  8. e_blazer

    e_blazer Rip City Fan

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    As a practical matter, that's the last date to make a trade to dump a significant amount of salary, but according to the CBA FAQ page:

    "The amount of tax a team pays depends on the season, the team salary as of the team's last regular season game, and whether the team is a "repeat offender"."
     
  9. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    Sure, no problem. I appreciate it. I should have gone to a more official source rather than trust a writer from cow town. So, that's on me. Live and learn.

    BNM
     
  10. e_blazer

    e_blazer Rip City Fan

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    I'll buy that teams were reluctant to offer Harkless a big contract because he hadn't demonstrated what he currently brings to the table, at least not on a consistent basis for a long enough time. That was proven by the fact that he didn't get other offers. Given that Olshey has a much bigger inventory of information on which draw in forming an opinion about his long term value to the team (practice games, coaching staff evaluations, etc.) than other GMs, I think his decision to give him a big contract was valid...as is now being demonstrated. As far as values, last summer's deals for players were crazy. Jordan Clarkson and Solomon Hill getting $12M a year? C'mon. How is Harkless not worth as much as those guys, not to mention Jon Leuer?
     
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  11. dviss1

    dviss1 Emcee Referee

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    Sound logic.
     
  12. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    Haynes' article is pushing the idea that it was PA who was steadfast in matching Crabbe. No questions asked.

    Perhaps he's as much to blame as Neil?

    FWIW, I too agree with the decision to match. Can't just let talent walk out when it's so hard to acquire. Not everything is determined by a zero-sum ROI consideration, especially in a market like this one.
     
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  13. oldfisherman

    oldfisherman Unicorn Wrangler

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    Before the FA bidding started last summer, I had Crabbe and Harkless with about equal value. Maybe with a slight edge to Harkless over Crabbe because Mo’s game reminds me of Jerome Kersey.
     
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  14. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    I think other than a dump, the only way to reduce salary is to cut the 10 day contract guys and maybe a buyout of a player with a biggish salary.
     
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  15. oldfisherman

    oldfisherman Unicorn Wrangler

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    After reading Chris Haynes article, it sounds like we should keep NO, and fire PA.
     
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  16. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    Oh, I have no problem at all with Mo's contract. I think it's very fair to both parties.

    My quibble is with the notion that some other GM would have offered Mo a contract starting at $14 million a year, but chose not to for fear Neil would match.

    With all the money being tossed around last summer, if some GM would have thought Mo was worth $14 million a year, he would have gotten an offer.

    BNM
     
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  17. Cippy91

    Cippy91 Habitual Line Stepper

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    I have an issue with the fact we signed Meyers before we signed moe back. That's alarming to me and also is further proof of the weird infatuation this organization has with Meyers
     
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  18. Minstrel

    Minstrel Top Of The Pops Global Moderator

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    At Leonard's official retirement press conference, whenever that may be, a Trail Blazers' representative will say, "We wish Leonard well and we still fully believe in his potential."
     
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  19. blue9

    blue9 Well-Known Member

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    Or it could be that we were giving Harkless more time to field offers from other teams?

    One thing I'll say for Olshey is he seems to want to keep his players happy. He offered Meyers $10m/4 years at the beginning of last season and Meyers "bet on himself". When the bet didn't pay off, rather than sticking it to Meyers Olshey gave him the same deal because relationships matter. Financially, it wasn't a good move. But perhaps it was the right move in the grand scheme of things. (Probably not, but you get what I'm driving at.)
     
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  20. Fez Hammersticks

    Fez Hammersticks スーパーバッド Zero Cool

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    Bump this thread we must.
     

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