FIRST TRADE IDEA OF THE NEW SEASON!

We have had multiple scenarios every year when even just one game has meant the difference between HCA and not.

I just did a really quick regression model of just last year alone of wins vs active payrolls (i do this kinda stuff for a living, fwiw). If you take just take the entire league as is and consider all outliers (such as MEM with a bunch of rookie deals winning 56 games, or LAL winning only 33 with a bunch of injuries), the correlation is admittedly weak with barely a .25 r-squared.


But let's bin this into tax v no tax, you start to see the bigger difference (after removal of outliers I mentioned earlier).



Obviously, you see teams over and under-performing every year, but with a larger sample size, I think that relationship of salary vs wins is a fairly obvious one that would result in a good correlation and possibly a linear regression model. For reference, I work in pharma and we build predictive models and make go, no-go decisions on correlations with r-squared values around 0.3 or 0.4 at times.

Ya, no shit. I don't have a net worth of 25 billion to know how it feels. But we have a reference point of another owner who did.

What do you think Paul Allen would have done?

 

This is clearly not a HCA team. More likely a perpetual play-in level team, at least for the next few years.

 

I like to snoop in other forums, and Raptor's fans sure seem in love with Sharpe, Ant too.

 

Ya no thanks.

 

But you want them to go into the tax to get him?
I don’t know what else it would take?

 

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I'd gladly take on OG if the price were reasonable (Ant is my cutoff point). But if they want Sharpe and a bunch of picks, I draw the line. My concern is assets not tax.

 

It's really the fans' money (well, except for a few freeloaders like me). They buy the tickets and pay for the TV packages.

 

And they have the right to vote with their feet (or eyes) and money.

Blazers are providing a good product.

 

This smacks of the kind of shit that Woj would post for Neil.

 

I would be scared shitless of tradign Sharpe then watching him become a star elsewhere

 

I am not a fair weather fan; just calls em as I sees em. But I do get your point and I loathe each and every loss. I could stand to be more positive.

By re-signing Grant next summer Portland will be in a straight-jacket. After giving up a pick, they sort of have to, I guess. You never know, Grant could walk if he gets an obscene offer somewhere else. I think Portland can give him ~28mil. Might he get an offer over 30? He is killing it this year. His loyalty to Dame/Portland may be tested.

I view Nas, Nurk, GP as overpaid. Portland is stuck with Nurk and Nas; those contracts are hard to trade, imho. I would like to, some day, see what GP will bring to the table though.

How does running the ~same roster next year yield deep playoff hopes? There is no way to make any moves that are game-changers. Can't even sign a true backup high quality center. Age old quandary of how to land a superstar. Can't do it by trade or FA; have to draft or find the young diamond in the rough. Keep developing the young talent. Ant and Shae are bound to be stars. Lacking a young big with real star talent. Trendon is a fine role player at this point.

 

supply/demand

 

OK, I think I have a win now trade that almost everyone will hate!
For Pascal Siakam, who I think as an all around player is almost as good as Durant and six years younger. we give Sharpe, Simons and Payton.
Since we will be short on guards, we move Hart to guard and get back Dalano Banton, a young 6'8" PG who averages almost 2 blocks and 2 steals per 36. We may also be short on SF's, although Grant would play there most of his minutes, because Little is out and Winslow maybe also. so we also get back Otto Porter. In fact we trade out Little and Winslow to get them. Winslow is expiring and who knows if Little will ever be healthy so we don't lose much there.
This would leave us really short on shooting right? Although Hart has been shooting 37% on threes for two years and he would get to shoot a lot more. Like to figure out a way to get Trent back but can't figure it. Maybe find some guy who used to be great as a 6th man?

Siakam's last ten games: https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/pa...akam has averaged 24.1,10 games in his career.

https://craftednba.com/players/comparison here you could compare Siakam and Durant, you will have to find them, I still have never figured out how to do screen shots.

 

Would be a really riskiy trade. Most trades where you trade away your future for a star don't work out. But I really have doubt about Simons' value. And Sharpe is still somewhat of a crap shoot. If I was GM I would probably be afraid to make this trade. Anyone else have ideas how to get Siakam?