Fivethirtyeight simulation

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Denny Crane, Mar 14, 2016.

  1. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    Now down to 97%.

    :MARIS61:
     
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  2. Tunchi

    Tunchi Well-Known Member

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    There is nothing anyone can say to me to change my mind.

    We gain absolutely nothing getting our ass handed to us in the playoffs. HAVE YOU SEEN OUR RECORD LATELY AGAINST PLAYOFF TEAMS? I said that when we won 13 out 16 games playing great basketball. I said that when we were 8-9 games below .500. A lottery pick to a small market team rebuilding is golden. You cant put a value on those lottery picks. Thats how important they are for teams in our situation. If we find a team willing to trade away a good starter, what can we offer them? If the Kings deal Cousins what can we offer them? ( JUST AN EXAMPLE) In order to get something good you have to have something another team wants. The majority thinks that players like Leonard, Vonleh, Aminu, Harkless and others are good trade chips because they are cheap but that is just wrong. Those players dont hold near the value that some of you think. We were able to get them cheap for a reason

    So many fans are SO sure that Olshey can get a good free agent to sign this summer. You need to stop and ask yourself where will we be if he can’t? SOMEONE PLEASE ANSWER THAT. How do we inject talent into this franchise when you don’t have a lottery pick? Are we once again forced to bring in the type of players we did this summer? Players who have some potential but players other teams have already given up on. Players like Aminu, Harkless, Vonleh??

    We just need talent pure and simple. I don’t care where it comes from. Draft, trade, free agency doesn't matter. Just Get It Olshey…..just get it!

    I understand how difficult it is to get good free agents to come here but Olshey has to cash in this summer. These past HUGE BLOWOUT losses have shown us how bad our frontcourt really is.
     
  3. Tunchi

    Tunchi Well-Known Member

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    Here's the list of Blazers who have never been to the playoffs: Noah Vonleh, Maurice Harkless, Brian Roberts, and rookies Cliff Alexander, Luis Montero, and Pat Connaughton. 8 of Portland's top 10 rotation guys have already been to the post-season and experienced getting beat. And the rest dont even play anyways. A couple of them have EVEN won a round. This team is young, but it's not stocked with babies.
     
  4. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    I'll post this again,

    You are operating under the assumption, actually fantasy, that Olshey can just go to Stotts and the players and tell them to intentionally lose games.



    Also, I would argue that by having as good a season as we are that we have more assets than if we had tanked. With the exception of maybe Meyers and Vonleh every player under contract next season has improved their trade value. They're worth more than what we used to get them. We have assets.

    We have no bad contracts and lots of young players who are performing. We can make deals. We have an excellent GM who is outperforming even the best experts here in the forum.

    Yet again and again you think there is more to be gained for the good of the team by telling our players to stop competing and not care about winning.

    We're ahead of where most thought we would be, the sky isn't falling, we've gained more assets than we would have if we tanked, get over it.
     
  5. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    While that was a lovely rant, it really didn't answer my question. Like, even a little bit.

    Would you perhaps be willing to take another stab at it? What do you believe the Blazers should have done differently during the season in order to improve their future prospects?
     
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  6. HomerLovesKoolAid

    HomerLovesKoolAid I have a well-known member.

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    Slyperbole!
     
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  7. Strenuus

    Strenuus Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    You didn't answer anything anyone said.

    You like participation awards, admit it.
     
  8. Tunchi

    Tunchi Well-Known Member

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    HAHA you got that from me, your the one who wants the award for participating in the playoffs for nothing. You'll see what happens in the first round again tmr when we play the Spurs. It'll be another EXAMPLE
     
  9. Strenuus

    Strenuus Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    You realize that Picks are "participation awards"... Participation awards are handed out to teams that didnt make the playoffs.

    Logic. You did that to yourself. Nice try, though.
     
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  10. dviss1

    dviss1 Emcee Referee

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    Post of 2016.
     
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  11. dviss1

    dviss1 Emcee Referee

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    Ouch Stren! Stop hurtin' em' like that!

    :biglaugh:
     
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  12. Wizard Mentor

    Wizard Mentor Wizard Mentor

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    I don't really want to pile on, but I'll answer part of your question, and it disagrees with many on these boards:

    My total guess based on almost nothing is... Free Agency is Plan B. Plan A is that we trade for a good, young player under contract using our "assets" (Players, the pick we just got, but most importantly, cap space.


     
  13. Nate

    Nate #itsokaytobewhite #wakandaforever BANNED

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    If we make the playoffs with these players, under the given circumstances (no chemistry, blah, blah, etc.) Then I'm pretty sure we don't need to be hoping/relying on some rookie to come in here, and vault us into contender status...

    Boston got their asses handed to them last year in the first round, and look at them now, tied for 3rd in the East.

    And yes, I know, Boston has a bunch of picks. But the team they have on the floor this year, is the exact same one as last year. Doesn't look like they needed that extra lotto pick. The rookie, or the trade asset.

    Who are they even building around? Isaiah Thomas is they're best player... CJ is better than Isaiah....

    Dame might be MVP within the next few years. I doubt that this pick is going to determine whether or not he brings a championship to Portland... But maybe I'm wrong. Maybe if we make the playoffs this year, that will prevent our team from winning a championship. At least until Dame is gone of course (because Dames chance of winning a championship will be determined by this 2016 draft pick). And then we can quit wasting all our time in the playoffs, and start acquiring some draft picks!
     
  14. Nate

    Nate #itsokaytobewhite #wakandaforever BANNED

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    Maybe the Bulls should've tanked the 85-86 season...
     
  15. rasheedfan2005

    rasheedfan2005 Well-Known Member

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    So we lose this years first round pick but that guarantees we get next years. So even if we over achieve for 2 years we still get this precious pick.
     
  16. Strenuus

    Strenuus Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Ex.

    Act.

    Ly.
     
  17. Chris Craig

    Chris Craig (Blazersland) I'm Your Huckleberry Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    I don't think we will get our asses handed to us in the playoffs...we will play well...will we win a series? Get to the second round? Further? Probably not, and I'm not going to claim we are because I'm not delusional. Yet, we have the opportunity to succeed in the playoffs and that is exciting in itself.

    We do gain something playing in the playoffs, even if we lose. We gain experience, and that's important for a young team that is playing some amazing basketball and surpassing expectations and surmounting the odds.

    This summer in the off season Olshey will go after free agents, before that maybe try to dangle expiring contracts for a draft pick...or be the go between for a couple teams and collect yet another asset. We roll the dice. We get when the gettings good, and on the off chance that a big name free agent breaks the line and escapes back into the water...we keep throwing in the line...if we snag a guy that makes sense, add him...

    If we get no free agents, no draft picks or assets on draft night, no trades...which I'm sure some of not all of these will happen...even if they don't we have a young team that plays amazing basketball and has a year of experience together...and we send them at it again and bide our time...

    In Neil Olshey I trust
     
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2016
  18. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    Just one last thing. This sentence you used as your preface really tells us all we need to know about you. The level of arrogance needed to believe that your opinion is so infallible that no amount of contrary evidence or perspective could conceivably overcome your staunch faith in your own viewpoint is, quite frankly, astonishing. As the old saying goes, minds are like parachutes; they only work when they're open.
     
  19. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Forum Troll

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    I question whether you actually have the teams long term best interests at stake. Seems you live of the rim of your nose with regards to the Blazers and you just don't seem to get it. A pick this year, a pick next year. Nothing changes. The pick can be used in the off season regardless of the yer, for a trade.
    The very guys you mentioned that haven't been in the playoffs are the very ones who need the experience. SO they can make the next step next year like many of our returning players have done this year compared to last year. I know you said no one can change your mind, but you cant be this pigheaded as to not see that almost everyone now sees that making the playoffs is a far better choice of action for this young maturing team?

    Your focused on the blowouts we have had to some elite teams in the league. Perspective mAn... Perspective... Long term thinking. Long term goals. At this point a late to mid lottery pick does us nothing this year compared ot next year. If anything having it next year is better. We can better ascertain our current youngs and who will develop and who wont and then go after that position in next years draft.

    Come on man.. Get on the band wagon ...Its a MUCH funner ride than.. well being wrong. ;)
     
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  20. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Forum Troll

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    Incredible!!! 100 Likes to you sir!!!!
     
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