For those of you who value analytics, Anfernee Simons is having one of the worst seasons of all time

we're just a few months removed from him doing this in the bubble

 

I didn't either. I compared Simons to Trent, last season. Simons played more total minutes that Trent. He played in 70 games and averaged 21 minutes. That was consistent playing time with consistent roles

I'm also pretty skeptical about the narrative he's being played out of position at PG. Portland doesn't need another undersized SG when they have CJ, Trent, and Jones to play that position. Simons needs to develop PG skills if he wants to stick in the NBA. I'm assuming the Blazers (Olshey) have picked up his option for next season. But If Simons was on any other team managed by any other GM I'd think there'd be a reasonable chance he'd be allowed to walk next summer

at this point, I'd wonder if his NBA career will make it past 5 seasons

 

The unfortunate reality is that it's very hard to find any comparable players that were this bad over the first few seasons and eventually became a useful player. Players who develop into NBA rotation players or better might start out with struggles, but not to this level.

I'd love to see Simons succeed but I'm fairly sure he's going to wash out of the NBA. At best, IMO, he might hang on as an end-of-the-bench scrub for a while.

 

I was trying to come up with comps

Elliot Williams?



Williams was quite a bit older than Ant at comparable stages, so maybe not a good comp

but I believe you're right and that player who look as bad as Simons does, in their 3rd season, rarely improve enough to have a significant career. There are probably a couple of exceptions to that rule, probably for big men, but not for an undersized SG guard or a PG

 

The issue is confidence. Which is weird because in his rookie season he seemed to have unwavering confidence.

But that confidence is gone. He looks very much like a rookie out there, which is problematic because he's in his third season.

Confidence is everything. It's why Jermaine didn't work out in Portland. He'd go in, make a mistake, and Dunleavy would yank him almost immediately. As soon as he went to Indy and they said, "you're starting, don't worry about it," the dude became an AllStar. That could happen with Simons.

 

Jermaine O'Neal worked out fine in Portland, in terms of what he could control. He struggled a little as an 18 and 19 year old, but held his own. By advanced stats, he was playing well as a 20 and 21 year old in Portland. He simply didn't get enough playing time to "look good" in the box score. And then he was traded.

If your implication is that he was a bust in Portland, due to confidence, and then resuscitated his career in Indiana because he was given the confidence of starting, that narrative was off. He was talented and on the path to success in Portland, but wasn't given enough playing time and then was traded in a win-now move. Even at the time, I don't recall Portland fans considering O'Neal a bust--a lot of fans were down on the move.

Simons bears no resemblance to O'Neal, in my opinion. Simons has been terrible by traditional and advanced measures. O'Neal was playing well, when he got the chance.

 

I feel like every guy in the nba is talented, and if you give them minutes they’re bound to have good games here and there. Every year there are g leaguers that come up, score 20+ points in a game, and then just fade away after.

With Simons, idk what it is. He looks more comfortable (physically and mentally) now than he’s ever looked imo, but the results still aren’t there. I’m sure he’ll have a good game while CJ is out, but unless he starts stacking them up somewhat consistently, I’m not sure he’s got a future in the NBA. This stretch of games without CJ should be his final opportunity in Portland imo.

 

He actually gonna get a legit shot, tho?

 

There is no other option short of Dame playing 40+ minutes. He’s gonna get 15 minutes every night. It’s up to him to earn more.

 

Some great insight from Quick

https://theathletic.com/2338189/202...il-blazers-mailbag/?source=emp_shared_article

 

I don't doubt that Ant is talented, but playing well in practice is an entirely different animal. Actual NBA games have much more intense, sophisticated defenses than practices do. Talent gets you in the door, but it's really being able to make decisions quickly and instinctively that ties talent together when the bullets are live. There have been a lot of players who can dominate exhibitions, workouts or practices but can't do the same in real games and it's because they don't have that instinctive decision-making that allows them to actually make use of their talent.

If Ant were improving year to year, I'd believe he was on the cusp or had greater years ahead of him. The problem is that he's regressing--which suggests that getting up to "NBA speed" isn't a question of insufficient experience for him, but potentially rather a fatal (to his game) deficit in that speedy decision-making.

 

Still so young. Unbelievably athletic, and just needs to be more consistent. Giving up on him is ridiculous.

 

You may be right, but he hasn't had consistent minutes in a long time. Since the Blazers have little in the way of other options, Simons is going to get a steady diet of more minutes. The time to evaluate him is after he's done that.

 

why can't we have evaluated him as a 2nd year player last season, which by the way ended about 3 1/2 months after this season began? That doesn't seem like long time to me, and he got a consistent 21 minutes

he shot 32% on three's, under 45% on two's (17th on the team), under 40% on FG's (again, 17th on team), had the worst BPM among rotational players, and spent half of his time at PG actually having a higher turnover rate than assist rate. That's really quite bad

I agree that's he's going to have a major opportunity over the next 25 games or so; and he might improve a lot because of it. But the way-too-often repeated narratives around here that he hasn't had opportunities or is playing out of position just seem false to me

 

I understand they want him to be the bu pg and Ill guess we will see how that goes, however, Im still not convinced he's pg material. He's, imo, the type of player that plays better off the ball.
He's either going to prove many of us in here wrong or right before long.

 

I'm pretty sure that the coaching staff evaluate players constantly. He's going to play and he's going to make whatever he can of the opportunity. I'm just saying that I'll make my assessment of him, for the near zero importance that imparts, after he's played a few weeks. You can do anything you want.

 

I can't see him with any role for the Blazers if he can't play backup PG. How many under 6'3 no-defense SG's does Portland need?

I suppose you could argue Portland made it work with Napier and Seth Curry, but they had Turner to fill the role of backup PG on offense; and both Napier and Curry played decent defense. They don't have a player like Turner anymore (thank god) so Simons needs to fill the PG role