Game Thread GAME# 1: JAZZ @ BLAZERS - DECEMBER 23, 2020 - WEDNESDAY, 7:00 PM, NBCSNW

5/205 extension for Gobert. You better believe Nurk is going after a similar deal next yr. Obviously not as high, but not too far from it.

 

I'm not hating on CJ either....he is a very gifted, creative scorer. But at the same time, just accepting he is who he is....and has been for years, and that isn't suddenly dramatically changing at 29 years old. Same with Stotts. A career 'players coach' who doesn't hold players accountable, isn't very defensive oriented, is slow to make adjustments, if any, and when it comes to the Playoffs, has a career .344 over what is not exactly a small sample size.

 

No way. Nurk isn't going to be anywhere near that. I could see Nurk at ~$25M/yr (and MAYBE up to ~$30M/yr).

No way will he command $40M/yr. Nurk's MAX possible contract will be 30% of the CAP for an 8-yr vet. At $115M cap, his MAX would be ~$35M/yr.

 

Bogdan plays for Atlanta. Bojan plays for Utah.

 

Even if Nurk turns it around and starts to look like the player he was preinjury, that would be a mistake. Utah is going to rue the day they signed that deal.

 

Meh I’d rather start over with that pick as the new beginning. Dame isn’t young anymore

 

I think thats way to much to pay a center.

Nurk is basically unplayable when Anthony Davis is at Center, or other matchups with speed at center. Teams have repeatedly done that to Gobert in the playoffs as well where he gets played off the floor. See all the years Houston beat the Jazz. Or The Warriors with Draymond, Bucks with Giannis, etc.

I agree Nurk should get a raise, but if he's earning over $20 million I start to wonder if cheap centers like Collins/Kanter/Giles along with the large money going to a wing is a better way to construct a roster.

Traditional centers (even all star ones) are sometimes only 25 mpg roles against a number of teams.

 

if teams started judging players on wether they could guard AD or not, no one would get a contract. He’s an anomaly, you can’t just bunch him into the “small ball” argument. Those small ball matchups have a give and take. For example, Nurkic averaged 20/10 vs Draymond and golden state in ‘18/19. Houston got stomped in the bubble.

Sure there are matchups that present a challenge but when over half the league starts a “traditional” center, they’re worth the money. Just look at all the quality out there:

Jokic
Gobert
Nurkic
Embiid
Adams
KAT
Valenciunas
Lopez
Thompson
Vucevic
Drummond
Gasol

That’s just off the top of my head, I’m sure there are more.

Also, Gobert didn’t play 25 minutes in any game last season.

 

That list is my point, none of these guys exceed $20mil as top 3 player on their team leading to deep playoff success outside Jokic. He is an anomaly with a skillset that is unlike everyone on this list, he is basically the teams PG. We do need a couple big bodys such as Kanter to defend these guys, as Kanter did in the WCF run. We need someone to start games and play those roles against certain matchups. I'm not sure we can go deep in the playoffs with one of these centers as our key top 3 player. Yes Nurkic will average big stats but the opponent can get wide open threes as Golden State did, or Houston against Gobert, or the Clippers when they spread their wings prior to their choke against Denver, or Boston in the bubble, or Miami in the bubble, or all the years of LeBron teams winning the east without a center, etc.

Miami is a good example in the bubble, they spread the floor with Crowder and other wings, and even with two key starters injured in Dragic and Bam they were the only team to beat the Lakers twice.

I love all that Nurkic brings to the team and he is normally the teams 2nd best player when healthy. But game planning him out of the playoffs is a legit concern, same as Dame being trapped, or our wings only helping on one side of the ball. Gobert is a great example because he is certainly regarded as a superior center yet game planned out of the playoffs multiple years leading to his teams loss.

If Nurk is making $12 mil he greatly provides value even if he has to play lower 20 minutes in some matchups. If he is making $20-$30 million I'm just questioning if what we now can't add to the rest of the roster lessens the chance of contending.

 

Not really. Gobert makes it. Jokic is worth it. Nurkic will make it. Embiid makes it. KAT makes it.
Steve Adams and Valenciunas make 15 million and If Gasol was younger he would be making a bunch more also.

 

I voted for every option. Not very optimistic...

 

pretty sure it’s not even possible for Nurk to be qualified for that type of deal.
Unless I have bad info, you need to do things like make an all nba team or defensive player of the year, etc to be qualified for a max like this

 

Anyone going to the game?

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/jusuf-nurkic/

538 rated Nurk as a borderline all star and projects his value to be around 33 mil per yr. They don't really take CBA into consideration. But I estimate his new deal if he performs this year like he did in the bubble, to be around 25-30 mil/yr.

4/100 would be a steal for a top 10 center.

 

Outdated:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nba-player-projections/jusuf-nurkic/

Key role player.

Worth: 16M.

For the record, these projects are very wonky for players coming off injury, case in point:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nba-player-projections/kevin-durant/

 

Anyways back on topic, what’s the rotation for this one?

My guess is everyone will play except Elleby and Nas. Kanter over Giles since Utah’s backup center is Beefy Favors. I did notice Giles playing more and more four, especially in the last preseason game, so maybe he’ll get some minutes there. I’m intrigued by the idea of him next to Nurk. I remember couple of seasons ago Nurk developed good chemistry with Vonleh, so I could see the pairing work out.

 

We would not get a star for CJ & a 1st round pick. We would likely get someone worse than CJ or someone as good as CJ with a horrible contract as well.

 

Hopefully not worse defensively. CJ was #508 out of 529 players ranked (DRtg) in the NBA last season.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2020_per_poss.html#per_poss_stats::def_rtg

 

I was wondering if Gary and DJJ play really well and CJ plays well too, would the Cavs give up Darius Garland in an uneven trade for CJ if Garland plays at about the same level he's been playing at? If they did that we could then ask Gary to wait to sign any offer sheets, have DJJ opt out and re-sign him with some of the money freed up from the trade, then match any offer sheet Gary gets.

We'll gauge Zach's value based on his play this season but I'm betting he gets a pretty small raise from another team's offer sheet and we match... that's regardless of what happens with the aforementioned players.

I do think that if CJ outplays Gary by quite a bit that we will most likely lose both Gary and DJJ. If we have a little success but not a lot (lets say a quick second round exit) there are some really tough decisions looming for the next off season.

 

Would be hard to find a worse fit defensively. Having said that, with CJ's talent, I would be shocked if we came out ahead overall when it comes to talent.