Game Thread GAME# 17: BLAZERS @ CAVALIERS - NOVEMBER 23, 2019 - SATURDAY, 5:00 PM, NBCSNW

I think a strong ego is a good thing to have.

 

Like a strong cup of coffee.

 

that does not affect rebounding rates, which is why they are the best measure of team and individual rebounding impact.

and your assumption may be exaggerated. Look at the numbers comparing last year to this year:

% of Opponent FGA 0-3': 2018-19 -> .299.....2019-20 -> .286
FG% by Distance 0-3': 2018-19 -> .633.....2019-20 -> .636

% of Opponent FGA 3-10': 2018-19 -> .150.....2019-20 -> .177
FG% by Distance 3-10': 2018-19 -> .411.....2019-20 -> .385

so then, those two shooting zones would be the ones most impacted by big man defense and rim protection. In shots at the rim, The Blazers are actually giving up fewer this season than last, and opponents have only increased their efficiency by .003...insignificant. Blazers are giving up more shots in the 3-10' zone this season, but are holding teams to a much lower FG%

Portland is losing a lot of games because of rebounding. Last season, the Blazers were 4th in the NBA in scoring 2nd chance points at 15.0/game. This season, they are 21st at 12.4/game. A differential of -2.6. Last season Portland was 17th in allowing opponent 2nd chance points at 13.7/game; This season, they are dead last at 16.8/game. A differential of -3.1. That means Portland is -5.7 points/game worse off the glass this year, and their MOV is only -3.7. Last season, Portland was +1.3 in 2nd chance points from both ends of the floor, This season, they are -4.4. Their -4.4 point deficit is more than their MOV

They are getting killed on the boards and Zach's big weakness as a big man is his rebounding. Now maybe, he'd discourage an opponent 2nd chance opportunity every once in a while, but that wouldn't have any significant impact on those numbers. Portland misses Zach, but they don't miss his anemic reboundiing

 

Fucking a.

 

For the record, I completely agree with you that everyone should make up their own mind and not let anyone whether it be posters or media determine your own opinion.

 

A strong defense is good to have too.

 

If you do the same analysis using about the last 3-5 years and you use both BPM & RPM will get different results. It's not realistic to use Melo's & Tolliver's career because they are both off the cliff.

Here is last 5 years weighted more towards recent years. Simple average of players, last year is +0.44 this year is -1.39. That will cost about 8 games over an 82 game season based on minutes played and 2.7 wins per +/- 1 point. And it's worse than that because even what I did does not fully account for how bad Tolliver and Melo are at the moment because it uses data from 3 to 5 years ago which is not realistic.

Average players matter. It's not easy to get depth where 8th, 9th, 10th players are average or even close to average.