Forum Game Game #3 Predictions, Blazers vs Wizards, 10/22/2018

My thinking is this is a different team than last year. But yes I will take a more balanced effort from the team.

 

check out Blazers IG stories. the blazers going into the Moda are all in haloween costumes

 

Well so far Dame is averaging 41.5 contribution points in 3.6 minutes less per game! So it's possible that Dame could be more efficient on a more balanced team making his contribution value stay the same or go higher.

 

Last year Dame was the top average contributor with his average ranking for contribution points being 1.5. He had 37 of 73 games when his contribution was less than his overall average (since average should be about the middle value, this feels right).

Of the games he contributed less than his season average his was still the top contributor 15 of those games.

Dame Averaged 39.7 contribution points last year in Blazer wins and 35.9 contribution points in Blazer losses.

 

We have a CJ 28 and 33. I'm pretty confident those people just mean points because I doubt we could win the game if CJ is our top contributor with only 28.

Nope. I meant CJ would be our high scorer with 28. And I predicted a win.

CJ = 28
Dame and Nurk will both score mid-20’s and Sauce will again be big off the bench with 19.

☺️

 

Wow @GrandpaBlaze, you didn't have to do that but that is fan-freaking-tastic work from you! Thanks!

 

But we are supposed to pick how many contribution points they have not just points scored.

 

There isn’t a right or wrong hoops. It’s a prediction game. I went with 35 for Lillard.

 

I think he realizes that lillard at 35 is a possibility. I think he was making a point that Dames been really efficient this year and playing less minutes (both really good signs in my opinion!)

 

I guess we need Gramps to weigh in. I understood:

Predict game score;
Predict Blazer high scorer;
Predict Blazer starters and Blazer bench scoring

No?

 

I'm guessing that means that Dame was the top contributor in about 50 of the 73 games played then? Based on your research for last year that means if you guessed 38 or less for Dame you were only right 15 out of 37 times (roughly 40%). Just by having Dame as your guess though you would be right nearly 70% of the time.

 

Nope it's Blazer high contributor using this formula:
Player contribution prediction:

Predict which player will have the greatest contribution points for the game. You post the name of the player and their contribution points. The contribution points are calculated as follows:

Points & Rebounds (face value)
Assists & Blocks (value * 1.5)
Steals (value * 2)
Turnovers (value * -2)

That's @GrandpaBlaze's exact words.

 

Ahhhhh. So the next team on Dwight Howard's wonderful tour of the league continues. Well Nurk And Collins should be more than enough for him.

 

I never said anything about you being right or wrong. I was curious how likely it would be to win (which you predicted) while Dame had a lower than average output (which you also predicted). You can guess whatever you want.

 

1. Yes.
2. No - Predict high contribution point person (points + rebounds + (assists * 1.5) + (blocks * 1.5) + (steals * 2) - (turnovers * 2)
3. Yes.

Imagine the following lines:
CJ - 29 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, 3 turnovers
Dame - 24 points, 2 rebounds, 8 assists, 1 steal, 2 turnovers

CJ Contribution = 32.5 (29 + 3 + 4.5 + 2 - 6)
Dame Contribution = 36 (24 + 2 + 12 + 2 - 4)

CJ is the high scorer but Dame is the overall contribution winner. You would have wanted to pick Dame.

Gramps...

 

This all started because it was obvious some were thinking it was points scored in the game, not using some formula. I just wanted to make sure we were all predicting the same thing otherwise the results are skewed towards those that followed the directions. I want to win this game because my prediction was close, not just default.

 

Blazers 121
Wizzies 109

Dame 39.5

Starters 76
Bench 45

 

Going by the prediction averages at this point, Blazers will win 119-110.

Woohoo! We don't need to play! Blazers win!!!!

 

It’s a long season and I’m sure you will be at the top. You have a very analytical type approach. I on the other hand always fall out of the running because I don’t get my prediction in enough times. I’m pretty much the yearly LOSER!

 

I am going to miss seeing Gortat out there for the Wizards. He is always a handful.