Game Thread GAME# 32: BLAZERS @ JAZZ - DECEMBER 26, 2019 - THURSDAY, 7:30 PM, TNT

Please share the point in the paint differential with Whiteside on/off the floor and while you're at it, look at the 3pt differential as well. When Whiteside was on the court we got outscored by 28, when Skal was on the floor he was a +19.

I replied to a poster mid-game who jumped the gun and complained that Stotts would screw up the big run by subbing the bench out. You are saying he screwed up by not taking Skal out.

 

For a single game, there's no stat more meaningless than an on/off stat. Dame was -26 tonight, but without him the Blazers would have been 43 down instead of 23 down when they started their comeback

I want to be clear...I'm not saying Whiteside had a good game, but Utah scored a lot of paint points when Whiteside was sitting

 

I get you. Would you agree that Utah had a ton of wide open threes on plays that involved Whiteside? I'm not bashing Whiteside either, I just think leaving Skal in had some merit. Tough choice, I get it.

 

the thing about those three's is that has been a trend ever since Stotts arrived. He's had some weird hybrid of the ICE defense where the big man hedges toward the paint instead of toward the ball at any screen or pick. It's been the same with Lopez and Aldridge; with Plumlee and Nurkic. Stotts has even said several times the goal is to bait teams into low-percentage mid-range shots. But a result has been lots of open three's. That's been going on since 2012, not just since Whiteside arrived. Obviously Whiteside doesn't have good perimeter close-out mobility. But it was also obvious that Donovan Mitchell had no fear at all about driving into Skal's interior defense.

 

I know this is the narrative, but the data I've seen doesn't back this up. Of all the bigs you listed, how many of them are considered quick centers? Plumlee and LMA would jump and show depending on the shooter. Having Whiteside running around at 30ft would be a huge coaching blunder in my opinion. Also, I think it's been generally accepted that Dame/CJ are not great at keeping people in front of them, which leads to people having to help, and teams getting open threes. So if Stotts' drop/ICE strategy was so bad, combined with Dame/CJ's defense, I'd assume we are bottom 5 in 3pt's given up and % every year, but I don't recall that being the case. Maybe I'm wrong.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/opponent-three-point-pct

I 100% agree the Skal provides minimal interior resistance, which is why he plays a lot less and Whiteside on average.

 

And, we're lucky we have such an amazing coach willing us to a near victory.

Snyder isn't last in the league or near last in assists. He can command some one on one without being wrong about it like Stotts.

 

3pt percentage defense under Stotts:

3rd, 12th, 7th, 26th, 27th, 16th, 14th.

Top 1/3 - 2 seasons
Middle 1/3 - 3 seasons
Bottom 1/3 - 2 seasons

If you average those finishes (a rough, but imporper way to do it), they are 13-14th in the league on average.

That does not fit the board narrative that we are horrible at defending the 3. Looks pretty average to me. To me it's another example of the focus only being on the Blazers and therefore we think our issues are way worse than everyone elses.

 

Also top 5 in limiting 3pt attempts in 5 of those seasons. Only outside top 10 once.

In my perfect world though we'd be a primarly a deep drop with the center team but more aggressive helping at the nail / midline and do more zoning / loading to the ball on the weakside, much like Bud has done with the Bucks (helps that he has ideal personnel for this scheme).

Brads help schemes are also textbook. Main difference with he and Bud is that he's had more mobile 5's that allow him to be more flexible with his pnr coverages.

Terry's adverseness to giving up 3's and getting into rotations limits our defensive potential (when he has good d personnel, which he does not right now) and crumbles against elite 1v1 / pnr talent.

 

This is a GREAT post, can I like it twice? Data, scheme identification, suggestions, roster acknowledgement. Props you to @JDC !

 

I'm guessing some won't agree with this either, but Stotts/Portland did change their defensive coverages tonight. Those who say that adjustments are never made won't point this out or possibly don't even realize it.

 

Would be nice if there was a real backup PG on the roster

 

Yup

Execution was pretty shit though. Especially when the tried switching Ingles pnr with either Melo or Skal.

Seems like we were always late communicating which led to fouling / getting caught top side.

Melo looked better than expected hedging and recovering when Mitchell was the handler though. Still don't really trust his mobility in those situations. Especially when teams empty out the corner and there's no help.

 

Talking about it for five years now

 

.... what?

 

actually that's an opinion. Look it up.

 

And this is the problem, why don't we play like that every time when it works? This strategy, where the big goes back into the paint and gives opponent a open 3 is fucking garbage, it's way to oldschool.

 

Dame/CJ: 20-44 (.454) for 59 points with 10 assists and 8 rebounds
Mitchell/Ingels: 22-34 (.647) for 61 points, 11 assists and 8 rebounds

The difference in efficiency is staggering. Dame and CJ are supposed to be (with Steph/Klay out) the best backcourt in the league yet they were outscored, out-assisted, with the same amount of rebounds and where miles behind in shooting percentage. Decent offensive numbers given the way CJ started but it's on the defensive end where I have long submitted our dynamic duo is lacking. Giving up 61 points on 34 shots....just think about that.

 

A CJ for Jrue Holiday swap would fix a lot of Portland’s issues right now. But it’s too obvious for Olshey to see.