Game Thread GAME# 38: BLAZERS @ RAPTORS - JANUARY 7, 2020 - TUESDAY, 4:00 PM, NBCSNW

Two questions from that last play, trying not to use hindsight:

1) Should plays have a secondary option if the first option is taken away?

It seemed like Melo didn't know who to inbound to when Dame was doubled. Hopefully this is a learning experience.

2) Why take a timeout to run the "Dame do something" play?

It would be easier to just let him get the ball off the rebound.

 

Perhaps because the Raptors were missing 6 of their top 8 players from last years team and we were down double digits to that 2nd and 3rd string squad for much of the game. Nice to get a win but if that is how depleted a team has to be for us to squeeze out a win at the buzzer, it's not very encouraging.

 

Exactly... Blazers are were down almost the entire game by double digits to a team missing 6 of their 8 best players. Not a win to feel good about for a team that was talking championship before the season started. This is a lost season and if you think big picture, that win actually hurts the team. If Blazers plan on having good assets, like a high lottery pick, to be able to make a trade to help Dame in the short window he has left, I don’t see how any true fan could be happy with this win. There simply is no other way to gain assets to improve the team.

 

Another good point. If you are just gonna say "Save us Dame" then let him have the ball with as much chaos as possible right?

 

We still haven't fix the defense and last night first 3 quarters it was the same for this team. Them 3 quarter no rotation and when we did rotate we did wrong while we end up with the raptors with wide open shots. Majority of the time we score enough points to win even with terrible offense scheme. Yes I am glade some ball movement last but history will show with this team the next game we could fall back in our old ways. But the defense must be fixed and not we will have more losing streak then winning streaks. But every win is good so last night was a good win.

 

Melo is having his most efficient shooting season since ‘16-17, when he was an all star. Really feels like he wasted two years in OKC and Houston. I doubt he’s gonna cost much this summer, so hopefully we re-sign him. I see a place for him in Portland, even with Collins back.

 

Only if he accepts a 15-20 minute role off the bench.

 

and I'd think Portland would have to sign him with cap-space or give him all or a good part of either the room-MLE or tax-MLE depending on what they do before the deadline

 

According to this article, offensive rating, defensive rating, rebound differential and 3 point percentage are the most important. Although they didn't correlate directly to wins but rather to how often top teams in those categories got into the playoffs. Assist/turnover ration was in the bottom half. Pace was last...... https://watchstadium.com/which-nba-statistics-actually-translate-to-wins-07-13-2019/

 

This guy thinks these are the most important, both on offense and defense, again nothing about assists:

• Effective Field Goal % (40%)
• Turnover % (25%)
• Rebounding (20%)
• Free Throws per Field Goal Attempt (15%)https://hoopshabit.com/2014/07/23/nba-advanced-stats-four-factors-winning/

 

I'd think rather that looking at offensive and defensive rating separately, it's most important to look at differential. There was an article I read ayear or so ago that said rating differential was the most 'predictive' model, even moreso than average MOV

I'll test it for Portland as I post the numbers:

2015-16 +0.8 > 44 wins (.536)
2016-17 -0.5 > 41 wins (.500)
2017-18 +2.7 > 49 wins (.597)
2018-19 +4.2 > 53 wins (.646)
2019-20 -1.6 > 16 wins (.421)

(this sure seems to correlate well with winning percentage)


and look at the top 10 in the league right now:

Milwaukee Bucks +11.3
Los Angeles Lakers +7.9
Dallas Mavericks +7.4
Boston Celtics +7.3
Los Angeles Clippers +5.9
Toronto Raptors +5.3
Houston Rockets +5.3
Denver Nuggets +4.0
Philadelphia 76ers +3.9
Miami Heat +3.8

not only does that correlate, it seems to be a mirror of the standings and win-loss records

I guess the question is, is this really predictive or is it putting the cart in front of the horse. In other words, is it a case that a good team needs to have a good differential, or rather just that a good team will naturally create one? Maybe that's splitting hairs. I'd also think the differential is important in 3 point percentage to. It doesn't do much good to shoot 38% on three's if you give up 38.5%

ok....this may be me reading that article wrong but I'm not seeing that he says those are the most important factors of all the dozens of stats. What I'm reading is that he arbitrarily picked those 4 stats and calculated the importance of each stat compared to the other 3. Am I interpreting that worng?

 

No such thing as a bad win - but this was more "sigh of relief" than "inspire confidence."

 

Yes, yes, and yes! I'd prefer win correlation because it allows for a much greater sample size, but I totally get why someone would want to look at top teams or champions only. Appreciate the link, the more information the better!

 

You're probably interpreting it right: I didn't really look at it close enough, I wasn't sure what he was doing.

 

It should be accept what he earns.

 

Very likely the case tonight. My comment was geared more towards what felt like a general trend that game-threads of wins have less activity than losses. I suppose I could look it up if I really wanted to find out.

 

Wiz, what are the stats for thread activity in wins vs. losses?

 

in wins vs losses, my bad-joke percentage jumps from 37.4% to 81.2%. My channel-hopping increases by 77.4%. And my alcohol consumption jumps 117.4%

 

That seems to be the norm. In games we are leading and winning the game threads are much less active and with games that we are struggling the game thread is lit up with a bunch of whining and crying. I might browse through it after the game, but if I had to sit live with some of these guys I would end up walking out of the room with all the whining and crying that goes on in the game threads.

 

Several of the rah rah positive people (NOT ALL!) don't post much when the team is bad in general. I know a lot of people who have stopped watching the team this year. That leaves mostly people who are passionate about the team. The negativity sucks but I have to credit the people who still watch the games and make observations, good or bad.