Game Thread GAME# 45: BLAZERS @ KINGS - JANUARY 14, 2019 - MONDAY, 7:00 PM, NBCSNW

Still nothing but anectdotal stories with no data to back it up.

If someone shoots 75% in practice, there's a 0.3% chance that a sequence of 20 shots all go in. So someone that is practicing a lot would expect to see this quite often and still be easily explained by the statistical expectation. It's not some mythical zone.

That player would expect this to happen about 3 times for every 1000 shots. They would expect to make 30 in a row every ~6000 shots, possibly almost every day.

 

I can't argue because in fact you are absolutely correct. That is exactly why i said i can't give any numbers to back any of my feelings about it up. I just know there are times throwing pitches i knew i was going to throw a strike and it was going to graze the inside corner of the plate. There were times i knew that i was going to dominate the other teams Fly half (Rugby). I knew that i was going to thread the needle on a pass between the Linebacker and Corner. I knew the sights were right and i was on target because it had to be or people died.
Your statistics cannot be argued with. However the same thing can be said about my feeling when i drain the shot and tap my wrist.

 

You guys want me to ask the players if there is something called a "ZONE" and if they have ever been in one?

 

Nah, we already know the answer is that every single player will say that there is a zone and give you a story about when they were in it.

 

Of course there is something "called" the "zone". Just because there is a label doesn't mean it has any real predictive power. They can have an opinion, just like everyone here is posting theirs. But that doesn't dispute the fact that it's well documented that people claim to see patterns that aren't real. Another example is in the stock market, and most people make less money than not trading at all.

This discussion reminds me of the scouts in the book / movie Moneyball. They were so convinced by their anecdotal examples that they wanted to argue the data. We're seeing how all that is turning out as the entire league is shifting towards data, not "gut feel".

 

Sure. But why not tap your wrist before you shoot? I'm sure you feel great after making a shot, but hindsight is 20/20, so tapping your wrist is a reaction, not a prediction.

 

Haha good point!

There are a lot of studies that back up what you are saying!

Here's one example:

"A 2003 study by Koehler, J. J. & Conley C. A. was conducted to examine the hot hand in professional basketball. In this study the researchers examined film from the NBA shooting contests from 1994–1997. Through studying the film of the contests the researchers hoped to find evidence of sequential dependency within each shooter across all shots. They also searched for sequential dependencies within each shooter per set of 25 continuous shots, and employed a variety of novel techniques for isolating hot performance. According to the hot hand a player should have very few runs and instead their hits and misses should be in clusters.

In their research there were only two players who had a significantly lower number of runs than expected by chance. No shooter had significantly more runs than would be expected by chance. About half of the shooters (12 of 23 = 52%) had fewer runs than expected, and about half (11 of 23 = 48%) had more runs than expected. The researchers also compared the shooters hits and misses. The data were more in accordance with chance than the hot hand. Through their analysis of the data the conclusion was drawn that there was nothing that supported the hot hand hypothesis.

A study reported that a belief in the hot-hand fallacy affects a player's perceptions of success."

 

I'd like to know their response but i'm pretty sure i already know. But absolutely it would be cool to hear what they said.

 

Did you just create another account to agree with yourself?

 

I think there's a difference between what people experience and the story that stats tell...

 

Ah but i have! Any time any where baby! Just say the word! Go talk to Larry Bird about telling everyone in the three point contest he was going to go collect his check. "They might as well sign his name right now". Then he went out and blew them all away.

 

I was just in the Auto Zone yesterday...they're the only place that still stocks parts for my little old red truck..the auto zone is for real folks

 

Read any great autobiography and you'll find both usually...library section 920 or 921...if you are a true stats freak read Hubbie Brown's book....that dude can ramble

 

What everyone forgets: the Oakland draft used in the book to "prove" that scouts knew less than sta-heads was pretty much a complete disaster. The best player they drafted that year was the guy the scouts and stat-heads actually agreed on.

 

I think you are all referring to the "flow state" a concept from positive psychology of hyper-focus, intense concentration, confidence, loss of self-consciousness, etc ... I'm sure most professional players have experienced that at one time or another... HOWEVER, that still does not mean that statistically speaking they are more likely to make the next shot they take... I'm sure there are times when players feel confident and take a shot... and they miss. Just because you feel confident or hyperfocused doesn't CAUSE better stats.

 

I think I get it now. Everyone who has played a sport has at one time or another been in the 'zone'.

However, to those who never have experienced it, it doesn't exist.

Got it.

 

Is not right in comparing a random event to a controllable event.

 

1) If you shoot 50% from 3 while practicing over the last 5 years, what is the probability you will make your next 3 pointer in practice?

2) If it's a controllable event, why don't you control it to go in every time?

 

So being focused doesnt increase the probability of a shot going in vs being unfocused... Lol. Then how come in an open Gym most NBA 3 point shooters can hit like 70ish percent but when their on a court with distractions they’re like 30% worse if not more... Being focused does cause better stats. You can argue the zone thing all you want but this part of your arguement literally doesnt make sense whatsoever.