Game Thread GAME# 80: THUNDER @ BLAZERS - APRIL 6, 2016 - WEDNESDAY, 7:00 PM (PDT), KGW

Matt Barnes plays for Memphis now, and Paul Pierce is having a horrible season. Jamal Crawford could help us as much as he might hurt us depending on if his shots are falling or not.

The Clippers will only be 5 or 6 games better than us on the season. I know they were missing Griffin but they played just as well without him. Meanwhile we lost a lot of games we should've won at the start of the year because we were young and lacked chemistry. If the regular season is any indication, then we're even.

Our backcourt and our bench is better. Jordan is overrated. Our guards are good at bother floaters/runners/pullups and dishing out of drives, which will neutralize his shot blocking. We don't have a low post scorer for him to try and lock down either. Combined with him, a hurting Griffin, the lack of depth behind them, and how well Aminu and Harkless have been playing, our frontline could easily outperform theirs.

 

That is right forgot about that. Not much solstice in that however.

 

I'm glad you are so positive that the Clippers all suck. Them having a terrible series pretty much is the Blazers only hope. "No Good Clippers!"

 

I had to read that twice. Initially I interpreted first time Portland has done it. Then it clicked, first time anyone has done it.

 

He doesn't take poor quality 3 point attempts either. I think it helps that his attempts are always from a similar distance with similar rhythm.

 

In 26 games after all star, he's shooting 48.3% from 3. On 5.6 attempts a game.

In 4 games this month so far, he's at 56.7% on 7.5 attempts!

That's Steph Curry level. Good lord. Why aren't we talking more about this? He's become a MAJOR weapon.

 

I'm going to C/P what I posted from another thread. It's related:

Here's a cool stat, it's not totally related but it kind of is.
Since February, CJ has been shooting the 3 ball at around a 46-47% clip. Prior to that, he shot 35% in Jan, 42% in Dec and 38% in Nov. 40% is good don't get me wrong, but the difference between 40% and 47% at the volume CJ shoots is the difference between a plain good shooter like Wesley Matthews and an elite shooter like JJ Redick or Kyle Korver.
So I went on the NBA stats site (awesome site by the way) and I got this:

Check out the % of threes that CJ was assisted on in Oct-January versus the % assisted on in Feb-March (April is a small sample size buffed by his 6/6 game against Miami). The correlation seems pretty telling. Two hypothesis:
1.) CJ is working off the ball more and Lillard/the team is looking to get CJ open more.
2.) CJ has improved his shot selection by not taking as many off the dribble threes.

Now here's Dame's:

Nearly half of his 3s are unassisted. We all know Dame loves taking threes off the bounce. It's also no secret that unassisted 3s are less accurate than assisted 3s. Even in CJ's worse months, a majority of his 3s were still assisted.
I think what I'm trying to get at is this: Dame is a better shooter than his percentages indicate. The difference is probably not as big as the 37% - 42% difference between Dame and CJ's 3PT%, but he needs to pick his spots better. He really should improve his shot selection, at least a little bit.....as good as he is, he's not a Steph Curry like shooter.

Just for kicks, here's Steph:

Even Steph's unassisted 3pt% is less than Dame's. A lot of that has to due with having a great playmaker like Green, but the point stands.

 

The Clippers will certainly be a favorite. The spot I think they have the biggest advantage is with CP3. It's odd because that's the spot with our best player. But he has always dominated Dame. He plays great defense. Our defensive schemes are so terrible at guarding midrange guards. Against any other opponent Dame would have a much easier time scoring. I think these playoffs will be a test for him in that he needs to show restraint and let teammates shoot. CJ will have a huge matchup advantage. They don't have players to guard our forwards. Hendo and Crabbe can exploit their bench. Does Dame try and force difficult shots when his stats are bad? Can he embrace others leading our team in scoring? It will be a new role for him and one he's never had success with against this team.

Our bench and our physical wing players are a huge advantage. We certainly have a chance to win this. Game 1 will be the key; teams that win that game get the series 70+% of the time.

 

Clippers are fucking scary if they ever decide to give Blake the ball and let him create in the 4/5 P&R with Deandre. Combine that with CP's abilities, and JJ's shooting, and its deadly group to play against.

But they also are a lightning rod for drama, and that trickles down from Doc. Given how much rust Blake has, and how terrible they seem to be under pressure, they are in serious trouble if the series is tied, coming back to POR for Game 3. I'm really hoping we lockdown that 5 seed.

 

NO GOOD CLIPPERS!

 

That's why I think Cj might be sneaky better than Dame.

He is a better scorer in every area of the floor but at the rim. Where Dame isn’t too great himself. TBH if McCollum finds a way to get 4 or more FTAs a game I can’t see him not averaging more pts than Dame. Shoots a higher percentage plus closes the gap in FTs and thats it.

Dame relied on Fts a lot in that hot run. Made some crazy amount of Fgs too, but the Fts uppage is what pushed him over the edge.

Lillard only shoots 41 percent.. thats really not that good for as many shots as he takes

 

Dame is so obviously dinged up. He seemed to have some issue on his right thumb yesterday in addition to his pre-existing foot problem. He's having trouble beating his man off the dribble and finishing at the rim-- i've seen him blow more wide open layups the past few games than I've seen him all his career. His shot selection needs improvement-- no doubt, but the obvious fix here is rest.

He'll get it next week. So glad we already clinched now so that he can pace himself before the playoffs.

 

I agree. Dame really needs the rest. Like really needs it. Last few games he looked like he was running in molasses.

 

I think we'll sit a bunch of guys the final game of the season. Aminu, Plumlee, Crabbe and CJ have also played more minutes than ever in their career. We should have the 5th seed clinched by then. Would hate to see someone get injured in a meaningless game. It'll be a reward for Luis/Cliff/Pat to get huge minutes in a game after a season of hard work behind the scenes.

 

I would love to have the 5th seed clinched by then but in the meantime, MIN is no pushover. I mean they just beat the Warriors.

 

Clippers don't scare me that much relatively speaking.

I like Aminu guarding Blake. Blake's not a back to the basket player anyway so his size advantage won't matter. Vonleh might be used as well. He defended blake real well earlier in the season.

DeAndre will hurt them more than he will help them.

Redick will get his points but I like that matchup on the other side of the court for McCollum.

Lillard will hear the noise about Paul owning him. He will be rested so I could see that matchup being a wash.

The X factor for LA will be Crawford. The X factor for Portland will be Harkless and Crabbe. When those guys are on, both teams are hard to beat.

 

Is it really that simple? At what point do you stop rooting for a lottery pick? if there are a couple of teams who are obviously better than everyone else......should we ALWAYS be more happy to be in the lottery because the odds are better? To me those are the teams more likely destined for mediocrity.

I do value draft picks as a way to build a team. You need to continue to fill the pipeline. But unless you get a top pick you can just as easy get lucky with a young free agent. (or 2nd round pick)

There are only 30 teams in the NBA with 15 roster spots, and a lot of good (but not great) players in the world. We can find the equivalent of a later lottery pick anywhere. And as for this year's top picks? Jaylen Brown is projected to be 4th. An athletic SF who can shoot from the outside.........again not hard to find. Is he going to make us a contender, more than say Harkless? Is Buddy better than CJ? Do either really have that much trade value?

IMO this is not the year to be worried about missing the lottery.

 

I can see both sides. The draft is the great unknown. You can't always look at a supposedly weak draft and brush it off.

Antetokoumpo was drafted 15th (15th!!!) in one of the weaker drafts in recent memory, and one that was projected to be weak. Antetokoumpo is the type of player you tank for.

 

If they play well enough to get paid, we have a player worth the money. I don't see what the big deal is.