GAME THREAD: BLAZERS @ PISTONS - DECEMBER 9, 2014 - TUESDAY, 4:30 PM (PST), CSN

im not a fan of his fade away shots, but i mean damn... the dude is straight money... he's single handely won us 2-3 games already. the man may have his weaknesses, but the pros far outweigh them.

 

You do understand that the threat of LMA taking those "forced" mid range jumpers opens the court for the rest of our players, right? That our success beyond the 3pt line is a direct result of teams having to defend LMA? Maybe instead of just looking at one cog in our offensive machine you look at it as a whole. I know you watch the games because you're in the game threads throwing out negative generalities on a possession by possession basis.

 

No, the threat of him forcing mid-range J's doesn't do anything. Yes, the "threat" of LMA taking those jumpers opens the court. However, all the open space in the world means nothing if he doesn't pass the ball to them and takes a low-percentage shot.

1) LMA can make wide-open jumpshots with ease. 3pt shots at about 40-50% (small sample), mid-range at a very high percentage (let's say, just for grins, 70%. Maybe a bit higher or lower, but close).
2) Because of #1, teams are forced to have a player guard him closely. Sometimes they even use 2 players.
3) Because of #2, the rest of the team has less defensive pressure (call it "spacing", "opening the court", "defense has to rotate", whatever), when the ball is passed to them.
4) If the ball isn't passed to them, #3 doesn't matter.
5) LMA does not always pass the ball when double-teamed.
6) LMA does not always pass the ball when guarded closely.
7) When #5 and #6 occur, LMA takes some number (between 1 and 10) of "closely guarded" or "double-teamed" shot per game.
8) When #8 occurs, LMA is taking a very-low-percentage shot at the expense of one of the rest of our players taking a wide-open, little-defensive-pressure shot.
9) When #9 occurs, our team's efficiency (the amount of points you get for every possession) goes down, because LMA taking a heavily-contested two-point shot nets fewer points per possession than Wes or Dame or Nic or Crabbe taking a wide-open 3-point shot or driving the lane.

No one is saying for him to not shoot wide-open jumpers (even wide-open "mid-range" jumpers, though those would be better from 3 ). No one is saying not to abuse a smaller/less-skilled player if able (like when they try to guard him with Quincy Acy. What sinobas has shown is that LMA does #7 more than he should, and the offense is not as effective (or efficient) when he does. If every time he was double-teamed he passed out to an open shooter (instead of taking a low-percentage shot), it would either a) keep happening, in which case he keeps passing out and our shooters shoot lots of open 3s or b) they stop double-teaming him and he abuses smaller/worse defenders one-on-one, which gets him back to higher-percentage shots.

I don't get the hate.

 

no, I don't think you can, (in fact, I think it's much more similar to the triple-option), but let's run with your analogy.

If you say "I will run some running plays to set up the play-action", I get it. Understand, though, that even on those running plays you're placing the effort of the play to get the best possible outcome. You know that you will most likely not get a 50-yard TD (though it sometime can happen). But you still have everyone block really hard, you still have the best running back on the team taking the ball, and you set yourself up for the best possible outcome for the team as a result of that play. Which is why I think your analogy doesn't work here, and it's the triple-option one.

In a triple-option, you can go multiple ways. You can hand the ball off to the fullback for the dive, which will most likely not get a lot of yards but you can't cheat off of it or else he'll run right up the middle for a long gain. (In our offense, this is the "LMA setting up at 18' for an initial entry pass" or something. If you leave him open (or guard him with a sub-standard defender), he'll score easily, which is why you have to guard him). If that option is covered, the QB takes a pre-conceived pathway/direction to try to get the best play out of it--like running strong side or weak side along the line. (This might be our pre-conceived play, like Dame getting the ball back and running a pick-and-roll and attacking the hoop). If the defense guards both the FB dive and the QB option such that the QB decides that taking either of those options will be sub-optimal, he can pitch to the wingback following (this would be one of our shooters camped out at the 3pt line).

I have no problem with this progression. LMA has a lot of tools and can score efficiently in a lot of different ways, so there's no heartburn with trying to start the offense off through him (the FB dive play). But most of the time the opponent will try to take that away with putting a superior defender or double-team on him. The next option is usually to have Dame run a P&R with him, which again I have no problem with...best ballhandler and long-range shooter on the team working with the most skilled big-man in a play. Usually, though, the defense is trying to take away Dame's drives as well. Which ends up with either the ball in LMA's hands on a pretty open shot (great! efficient!) or at the 3point line with one of the shooters (great! efficient!) or Dame barreling down the lane into a wall of bodies (great if he gets the foul called or makes it, sucks if he doesn't).

the TL;dr version? Exploit the defense with stuff you do well. LMA shoots wide-open shots very well. LMA abuses smaller/poorer defenders down low very well. He does not shoot contested shots well, and he doesn't shoot fadeaways over double-teams well. Dame shoots open 3's well. Dame does not shoot contested 3's very well, but b/c they're worth 3 rather than 2 it's more efficient to take a contested 3 than a contested 2 (with the %'s the team shoots them). Nic and Wes (and Crabbe and Blake) shoot open 3's well. There should be no reason for LMA to shoot a contested shot when our shooters are open, just as there is no reason for Dame to drive against a double- or triple-team when LMA is open for the "pop" or the wings are open in the corners. Just as there is no reason to go 1-on-3 on a break instead of waiting for your teammates to show up.

 

I disagree with this. If they give "soft pressure" in order to stay with guys on the perimeter, he now (versus 5 years ago) will abuse them. I didn't say "if soft pressure comes, don't shoot". If you recall the game thread from 3 nights ago, I was screaming for him to keep shooting with Acy "guarding" him. Quincy Acy is not the same as, say, ANthony Davis or a double-team (or, Heaven forbid, shooting against a double-team with Anthony Davis as one of them--how many times did that happen?!). There's a difference between backing down Reggie Evans and backing down Kyle Singler. Keep shooting if they're guarding you with Acy/Singler/JJ Hickson/Love. They'll either adjust or you'll score 40. Don't keep shooting if they're throwing a double at you (your teammates are now open!) or if you're not getting good shots. LMA's good, but if it's LMA-vs-Davis at the same time as it's Dame v. Jrue Holiday, let Dame run for a while.