GAME THREAD: PACERS @ BLAZERS - 12/2/13, MONDAY, 7 PM, CSNNW

I honestly think we'll win by double digits. And that's no disrespect to the Pacers, they're a great team. They'll beat us in Indy

 

Marc Stein @ESPNSteinLine
Pacers are 13th team in history to start an NBA season 16-1. Seven of previous 12 reached NBA Finals ... with five going on to win it all

 

Blazers will be first to start 79-3

 

Dude, you forgot we still play the suns one more time. 78-4

 

Let's be the team that breaks their 7 game win streak!

 

The hunted becomes the hunter!

http://www.nba.com/blazers/news/notes-quotes-trail-blazers-114-lakers-108

 

Watch the BLAZERS surprise us all and completely blow this team out, like we did against the spurs. Reason? Well, the spurs are a great defensive team, but our offense isn't built like most teams in the nba. Shot blockers like Hibbert aren't as effective, since most of our points are from the perimeter and three. As long as they can't disrupt our passing, we will be fine. Also, LMA is the perfect inside player to combat Indiana's interior defense. His block fade away is unblockable! I have a feeling Hibbert may be in foul trouble tonight!

 

The unstoppable force meets the immovable object.

 

Woot, got 100-level tix for tonight's game for freeeeeeee. Booya, lets go blazers!

 

I posted these tidbits in another thread, but they seem more appropriate here:

Hoping for a win, but against Indiana's defense, it will be tough. They are a defensive juggernaut - and it's not just Hibbert shutting down the paint. Their Defensive EFF of 85.6 is ridiculous. There are only two other teams in the league with a Defensive EFF below 100. They are the Spurs (Defensive EFF = 97.3) and the Heat (Defensive EFF = 99.4). They also have a ridiculous Opp FG% of .390. Second best is Houston at .422. They don't just lead the league in these two key defensive stats they lead by ridiculously large margins over some very good defensive teams (Spurs, Heat and Rockets).

Our biggest advantage is 3-point shooting. We are 3rd in the league with 3FG% = .414. The Pacers are 14th in the league with 3FG% = .364. On the defensive end, the Blazers are currently 2nd at defensing the 3 (Opp 3FG% = .323), but the Pacers aren't far behind (4th in Opp 3FG% = .332). So, will we be able to get open 3-pointers against Indiana's defense? And, if we do, will our guys be able to knock them down.

The good news is Indiana doesn't defend the 3 on the road (Opp 3FG% = .353, 10th in the league) as well as they do at home (Opp 3FG% = .314, 2nd in the league).

With Hibbert shutting down the paint, we need Batum and Matthews to REALLY step up tonight. Unfortunately, and maybe it's just the small sample size, but both players are shooting the 3 considerably worse at home than on the road.

Nicolas Batum:
Home: 3FG% = .351
Away: 3FG% = .429

Wesley Matthews:
Home: 3FG% = .439
Away: 3FG% - .561

The good news is Damian Lillard shoots the 3 better at home:

Damian Lillard:
Home: 3FG% = .438
Away: 3FG% - .375

But, we can't just rely on Damian and LaMarcus against a tough team like Indiana, we need other people (Nic and Wes) to step up. The good news is our bench shoots the 3 much better at home:

Mo Williams:
Home: 3FG% = .429
Away: 3FG% - .348

Dorell Wright:
Home: 3FG% = .421
Away: 3FG% - .321

Dorell Wright may be a real wildcard here. Last season, in 4 games against Indiana, he averaged 13.5 ppg and shot .444 from 3-point range against them. I wonder if Stotts will look to go with the big line-up for stretches tonight with Batum at the 2 and Wright at the 3.

All-in-all, as a team, the Blazers shoot the 3 slightly worse at home (.405, 8th in the league) than on the road (.420, 4th in the league). Let's hope the home cooking is working and the shots are falling tonight.

Go Blazers!!!

BTW, I'm REALLY excited about tonight's game. I grew up and played high school and college ball in Indiana - I even watched the movie Hoosiers last night on cable. I've now lived half my life in Indiana and half in Oregon. I'm happy for all my friends and family back home that the Pacers are doing well, but of course I'm absolutely ecstatic about my Blazers and their 14-3 start. I'm hoping for a good, hard fought game with the Blazers winning on a last second shot. I really hope it's a close game and it goes down to the final seconds. An occasional blowout can be fun, but it's the close games against the tough, playoff tested teams that build confidence and character.

Our starters vs. their starters:

It's interesting that in all the key advanced team stats, Indiana is currently dominating the league. As I posted above, their team defense isn't just the best in the league, it's the best by a ridiculous margin over San Antonio, Miami and Houston.

As a team, their Deff (Efficiency differential = Offensive eff - Defensive eff) of 27.8 leads the league. San Antonio at 23.5 and Miami at 22.2 are the only other teams with Deff > 20 (the Blazers are 6th in the league at Deff = 11.4). So, it appears the Pacers have a rather substantial advantage in Deff. However, if you just look at the starters, the gap narrows considerably.

Indiana has the best starting 5 in the league with a Deff = 27.5, but the Blazers have the second best starting 5 in the league with a Deff = 22.6.

And if you look at our starters at home Deff vs. Indiana's starters on road Deff, it's practically a tie:

Portland Home Deff = 17.3
Indiana Road Deff = 17.8

I know every game is a unique event, but I hope it ends up being close and we can pull it out at the end.

BNM

 

Work on that hyperbole! This needs an epic hero, battle trac playing in the background. The music they play to introduce the Blazers tonight might be the Blazer's undoing. Damn you McGowen and your non-epicness!

 

I expect a heavy dosage of Chicago and the Rocky soundtrack.

 

This is the kind of game where LA is a difference maker. Indy refuses to double team guys, so will they adjust this strategy, or with they allow LA to get his, and can LA take advantage and have a huge game that other PFs have been unsuccessful at?

This is the game everyone in the NBA will be watching. Let's get greedy!

 

Wondering if they'll put Hibbert on him.

 

It'll be interesting to see if Portland opts to go small at some point and put Batum at PF and Aldridge at C. That basically leaves nobody for Hibbert to guard, and on the other end Hibbert isn't really that efficient of a scorer and does turn it over some. I haven't seen enough Indiana games to know if a good outside shooting team has tried this tactic, but I'm curious.

 

And it seems like Stotts got the team some in-game practice for that lineup last night... hmmm...

 

I won't be surprised if they swap with West to give a different look, but I doubt it. The last time Indy came to Portland they were blown out. Stevenson and Hibbert laid eggs. Although they are much improved, so are the Blazers. This is gonna be a grind it out game, and no room for cruise control, sloppy plays, or iso ball.

 

Tonight's game is the real deal! Keys to success are going to be shooting the 3 really well and keeping our bigs out of foul trouble early. LaMarcus has to own David West and Nic has to stop George from going off. If Mo is shooting cold early, I'd like to see Earl paired with Damian to get some defense on the court. If Dorell is struggling I hope to see some Victor Claver for defense as well. We'll need our best defenders bringing their "A" game against these guys. This is a game the whole season could turn on. Number 1 vs Number 1! Congrats to coach Stotts! He's a keeper!