Gary "Hard Cap" Payton

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by SharpesTriumph, Jul 6, 2022.

  1. BoBoBREWSKI

    BoBoBREWSKI BURP!

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  2. SIeepwalker

    SIeepwalker The lone sane poster

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  3. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    That's not analysis. Those are called "facts."
     
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  4. andalusian

    andalusian Season - Restarted

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    You wrote "hard capped", "short" and "7-8 guards". These are facts (well, the 7-8 is kind of questionable, but we will let it slide).

    You also prefixed each of them with "Problem is" - that is an analysis. It might be, it might not be and it is fair imho to call it subpar analysis, especially the hard-capped one.

    We have seen averages that show the league is shorter on average that before. The number of guards, not a big deal to me, honestly, as long as there are options in the forward and center positions - and it seems that the Blazers have them.

    The issue with hard-capped and why calling it a problem is subpar analysis is that you do not show the alternatives and their likeliness to happen, nor do you show what would happen if the Blazers decided not to not to hard-cap themselves with that contract.

    My opinion is that they really wanted GP2 to solve a real, known problem that roster have and they decided to make sure they plug it over the small percentage that they will be able to be a part of a trade for a disgruntled star. They probably knew that if they did not give him this contract he would have gone back to GSW and they would not be hard-capped but would still lack a world-class one on one guard defender.

    The facts are that the Blazers have multiple roster problems, we know it and since NeO was sent packing, they are willing to admit it. They also said that it is likely a multiple seasons retool - so, being able to solve one of these problems when a sure solution is available to them is better, imho, than not doing it for the small percentage likelihood that they would be able to solve a different / bigger problem.
     
  5. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    Ah, but my whole point was to illustrate that the analysis provided in the article from Mr. Grumpy Pants left out a lot of key elements. That guy looked at the salary and Payton as a player, and did a very shallow look at our rotation, while chalking it up as a win.

    So I was trying to show that there are other factors that should have been analyzed when looking at the signing. How does Payton fit into our rotation and how are we going to find playing time for so many guys that are 6'5 or under? That's a problem. It's not insurmountable but it's still a problem for Billups. That's not analysis either. That's a fact. Billups has to find playing time for a bunch of guys who are similar in size.

    Also, when I say we're short, I'm also talking about depth. If Nurk goes down, do we realistically have someone who can step in and start at center for the rest of the year? I'm less worried about the power forward position, but center still seems very very thin on our roster.

    Hard capped is a problem if we decide to try to make a trade. So I guess it's not a problem if we decide to stand pat all season.
     
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  6. STOMP

    STOMP mere fan

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    What nonsense. A shorter guy with a big wingspan and way above average athleticism who regularly and successfully guarded forwards last season is not a problem add to this roster. Nor is it a problem however many below average guards who are sitting on the bench behind him. The only other guards on the roster that matter this year are Lillard, Hart, Ant, Shaedon & maybe Keon for the deep bench... the others aren't playing without injury. Cut them, trade them or whatever, they aren't good enough to plan around.

    STOMP
     
  7. blazerfan11

    blazerfan11 Well-Known Member

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    Trying to improve 3-point shooting defense and being able to quickly double-team an opponent effectively. Having players who can execute properly whatever defensive scheme Chauncey wants to use, whenever he wants to do it.

    Certain skills are required of the players to open up the playbook on offense.
    The same goes for defense.
     
  8. Hoopguru

    Hoopguru Well-Known Member

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    Dont we have Ben Mclemore signed for another season? Never mind. 1 year deal
     
  9. andalusian

    andalusian Season - Restarted

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    The article is titled "10 Best Free Agent and Extension Values of the 2022 Offseason", getting an all world defender in a position of need for the amount the Blazers got it is an absolute fantastic move, period. Nothing wrong with that analysis.

    Now, the question you pose is - is that the best move the Blazers could make - and frankly, I can't see any move that will not hard cap the Blazers that would have been better. Is it more important to get another backup big but remain sub-par on guard defense? That's a question that only time will tell, but I have to admit that when you look at obvious problems this roster has, the cost of opportunity lost on an iffy option is not one that I would be worried too much about. They identified a problem, they found a solution and the price is very reasonable for the production and short-term opportunity loss with the hard cap. Like any move, it is a gamble, but that's the nature of the beast. Anything short of flipping Harrison Barnes for Kevin Durant for a championship team is some kind of a gamble, and not taking the gamble is a bigger problem, imho.

    Definitely not the scope of the article. It is clearly a cost / production estimate for the available free agents / extensions.

    What other option is there that is better than GP2 and will not hard-cap the Blazers? I honestly fail to see one, GP2 has proven to be a more important cog in the GSW championship than Wiseman was. Do you think that if they lost GP2 and gained Wiseman they would have been better in that last year? I doubt it very much. If the Blazers lose Nurk they are going to be sub-par on the center position, no doubts about it. But, between Grant's offensive output and say, Trendon / Eubank - they have about as much offense / defense from the big position that the Blazers had when Nurk went down and we had Kanter replacing him. It was not, let's be honest, the biggest issue the Blazers had. We have seen that the loss of the long, athletic forwards that could defend once Aminu / Harkless were moved and we regained Nurk - was a bigger issue. A center in today's NBA is less of a problem - and an upgrade in athletic forwards (Grant and to a point, GP2 who is a forward on offense and excellent guard on defense) is a bigger hole to plug.
     
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  10. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    i wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the opportunity cost with the GP addition:

    - removes us from even attempting KD trades.
    - removes us from even attempting Ben Simmons trades.
    - effectively disallows us from attempting trades for players making 30 mil
    - takes away PT from Shaedon. He's currently slotted in to get what... less than 10 mpg? Even Kuminga averaged close t0 20 last year for a contending team.

    now we all know the first three scenarios are hypothetical in nature and probably far fetched. but to use our MLE on a guard when we already have so many is kinda reckless, especially when we have one guy taller than 6'9 on the roster, that too, one that is injury prone. i could have even been talked into giving the same contract for a center (hartenstein, etc) or a taller wing (porter jr, etc). and if they didn't want to come here... then fine. but to instead get another guard while relegating our prized rookie to the bench unless there are multiple injuries, it's worth questioning.

    and i need to see more about this average height link. think there's way too much variance and noise to make a definitive claim that players are getting shorter.
     
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  11. andalusian

    andalusian Season - Restarted

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    Price will be prohibitive. I doubt very much the Blazers would be willing to pay it.

    Only one that could provide the kind of defensive presence GP2 would present, but not sure BKN is interested in moving him (if they are going to rebuild, he is exactly what they need to rebuild after the Durant / Kyrie trades) and how good he will be given his back / mental issues.

    Grant + Hart for anyone making $30 mil is available all day long. The issue is not the $30 mil guys, it is the $40m guys and the only one on the market that is of any interest, really, is Durant, and I doubt he can be had just for salary so I do not think the Blazers really want to go that way.

    If Sharpe is so good he will force his way into the rotation. If he is not ready - let him grow slowly. This is the Formula 1 Mick Schumacher / Nikita Mazepin situation, Schumacher is much better having to battle a proper team-mate in Magnussen. Not an argument that carries much water with me, honestly.

    The move to small ball line-ups and it's popularity around the league is the reason the average height of players is going down. A long, athletic big (say Bam) or super skilled one (Jokic) is as important as ever, but the 3 point barrage and the need to cover more distance have made the big, stiff lumbering giants of the past less important in the league, that's why Drummond which would have been a must have in the past is pretty much a minimum salary guy at 28 years of age, so I am not surprised one bit that the average height reflects that.
     
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  12. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    Grant essentially forced his way here. Dame hand-picked him and has cited multiple times as the addition that has kept him in Portland. You really think we would trade him away? Come on now.

    So we just wasted our MLE on a guy who won't even play 15 mpg. Seems like a dumb way to spend $28 million when we are already against the apron.

    I'm not asking for a lumbering center like Przybilla. I asked for a modern center who is close to 7' who we can be comfortable playing 25-30 mpg if needed. I'm asking for another rangy forward who is 6'8 who can swing to SF/PF. I'm asking for us not to play a 6'3 guy at the forward spots. Just because GS was able to get away with it with Draymond and Wiggins in the backline in specialized lineups, we can't definitively replicate that. We have an actual quote from our GM right when he took over about his preference to add size to the roster this summer. Our coach has repeatedly mentioned that he hates that we are undersized every night. This isn't speculative or opinion, they are actual quotes. We will see nights when Grant and his 4 rpg will play backup center this season. It's not ideal.

    We will undoubtedly be a better defensive team because the players we acquired get after it on that end. I don't think anyone is arguing this point. But to point out that the roster construction is wacky is not some left-field claim.
     
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  13. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    You’re presenting this as a question of who else was out there, and my contention has always been that Payton hard capping us prevents the team from going above the cap to chase talent. That’s the issue. Maybe there wasn’t a comparable talent at the five who was available, but now we can’t even chase a player in trade and that’s the rub.
     
  14. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    This was Chauncey's quote for those who don't have a subscription to the Athletic:

    Now add to the equation Norman Powell, another high-priced guard — and another 6-foot-3 guard — and it becomes difficult to execute the type of defense Billups wants to run.

    When Toronto came to town last month, some reporters who cover the team were curious about Powell, the former Raptors guard, starting at small forward. Before the game, a Toronto reporter asked Billups if he was concerned about the four inches Powell would concede to Raptors forward OG Anunoby.

    “We give up size every night, man,” Billups said. “We are a small group, especially at 1, 2 and 3. They are all pretty much 6-3. But you have to find a way to just make multiple efforts defensively.”

    I asked, then, if Billups thought giving up that kind of size every night was a sustainable model for success. He tried his best rope-a-dope answer, talking about how he was trying to figure out how to best use all three guys at the same time, how he needed to do a better job of putting them in better positions to succeed … but eventually he tired of coming up with an excuse.

    “We’ll see,” Billups concluded.

    As Billups left the interview room, some of us reporters chuckled as we remarked that his “we’ll see” sounded an awful lot like a diplomatic way of saying “hell, no.”

    Two weeks later, nobody is laughing and there is no more we’ll see. The three-guard lineup has been seen, warts and all.
     
  15. andalusian

    andalusian Season - Restarted

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    You really think that if the Blazers had an opportunity they would not include Grant? Assume they Blazers were not hard capped and Durant was an option, how would the Blazers get there - either Ant or Grant will have to go out with the assumption that Dame stays. If there is an opportunity to get a $30 mil guy that is a real upgrade, the Blazers will have no issues flipping Grant. The issue with the hard cap is for the hypothetical $40m guys where you have to have multiple

    If Sharpe is better, in his first year, than an all-world defender that's not a knock on GP2. After his first year in Alfa Romeo Ferrari moved Charles Leclerc to the main team to replace one of the greatest drivers of the last 20 years and prior world driver champion Kimi Rikkonen. Within a couple of races in his 2nd year (first year in Ferrari), he was beating Sebastian Vettel (4 times world driver champion and 3rd most wins in history) in a car designed for Vettel - they started to adjust the car to Leclerc's driving style. It is not a knock on either Rikkonen nor Vettel, it is a testament to how good Leclerc is.


    Who is that - that you can get and not be hard-capped, and will provide more value than GP2?

    Again, who is available there given what the Blazers have right now and what the market had available?

    All great points, but want and can are 2 very different things. I have yet to see someone that would have not hard capped the Blazers, available and provided the kind of value GP2 can give this Blazers team as currently constructed. It is a multiple years process - and they took a very good option given what they had to work with. It is far from a finished product and I do not think it is obvious that there was a better option.
     
  16. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    We will give Grant an extension before January. He's not going to be traded. I'm almost certain of it.

    The non-tax MLE was our only tool of significance in the FA market. If Sharpe is good enough to unseat GP2 and GP2 sits on the bench because of our glut at the guard positions, how is that anything but a wasted asset? Now we don't have the MLE to use on an actual position where we need help. This is like the textbook example of opportunity cost.

    I pointed out in my post above that I was OK getting hard-capped and would have been fine if we gave that same offer to a center like Hartenstein (just an example, I liked others) or a forward like Otto Porter. And if they decide not to come here, then just sign minimums or guys for the TP-MLE. My thought process would have been:

    - Go after big/forward with the full MLE. It's OK getting hard-capped for a year if you fill a position of need.
    - If you insist on getting another guard, at least don't hard cap us and make life more difficult to acquire size later on.

    We threaded the needle so perfectly that we not only hard capped ourselves, but added a guard in the process.
     
  17. andalusian

    andalusian Season - Restarted

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    Sure, I suspect that as well, but that's because the Blazers are not likely to get one of these opportunities to replace him with someone better via trade, which is the exact reason the hard-cap is a non issue.

    If Sharpe is good enough to replace a world class defender in his first year - the Blazers are in an excellent place and they can always flip GP2 for another asset, but this means that the problem they have (elite individual defense) is now available with a cheaper, younger asset. Not a very likely thing to happen, frankly, throughout Sharpe's entire career, much less so in his first year. That would be an excellent "problem" to have and the Blazers than can use that asset to trade for another, lesser problem.

    But the Blazers did use the MLE for a position of need - an all world defensive asset. Otto Porter Jr, to be blunt, has been Covington lite in recent years and while he recovered last year, still his win score, vorp and PER were lower than GP2's in roughly the same amount of time on the court, with his injury history, I think GP2 is a better bet.

    Hartenstein is very nice and would have been excellent if the Blazers did not commit to Nurk. But, given that the Blazers have committed to Nurk and the team will likely try to play more small ball like the rest of the league, GP2 solves a bigger potential problem for the Blazers. Of course, if Nurk goes down this changes, but if he does not, GP2 is a much bigger difference maker for the Blazers.
     
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  18. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    Perhaps you'll be proven right. I'm justifiably skeptical-- it's why I struggle to predict more than 45-48 or so wins, especially in the west.

    Good convo.
     
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  19. andalusian

    andalusian Season - Restarted

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    That's fair. There is always a risk in any of these moves. I am glad that for a change, when they had an opportunity to get a real world class defender, they went for it.
     
  20. B-Roy

    B-Roy If it takes months

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    I think Alex Caruso is also a good comp of contract and play
     

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