The major distinguishing point is the "meaningful manner" part of the post. If he had delivered in the 09 playoffs I'd have some more hope. If he were more consistent during this last season I'd have more hope. If he had ever stayed healthy for a full season I'd have more hope. What I find when I look back on Greg Oden's body of work is that he's had a lot of meaningless flashes. So I chose not to factor him in when I think about the future of this team.
I just can't help but be filled with doom and gloom when I think about Greg Oden. I look back on this past season and I'm only seeing a couple games where he clearly dominated. I'm seeing a lot more inconsistency and games where he didn't contribute that much because he came really close to fouling out. IF he can stay healthy maybe he'll be able to round out those rough edges and be a useful player. I'm not counting on it. I fully expect him to be traded mid season for a more consistent player with less upside.
So all of 2008-09 is disqualified because he, as a rookie, was out-played by arguably the best center in basketball. And then his even better play in 2009-10 is disqualified because he didn't play long enough (as he did in 2008-09). That honestly doesn't make much sense. It sounds more like hunting for reasons not to count Oden's play, rather than reasonable, thought-out skepticism.
If the goal is to win as many games as possible without ever being a true title contender, that would be a logical move. A more consistent player with less upside would improve the team's floor and drop their ceiling. Since I really don't care about the difference between 40 wins with no title and 50 wins with no title, but do really care about the difference between 50 wins with no title and 55-60 wins with a title, I'd much rather have the risk/reward proposition of Oden. But I realize not everyone may feel as I do. Some people might prefer more certainty, even if that certainty cuts both ways...certain 50+ wins, certain no championship.
