Hmmm ... I agree about Greg being "worth" 10M/year, I also agree about not being able to get anything close to equal value in trade, but dismissing the fact that he's had a pretty major bone or cartilage injury in 4 out of the 4 years since his first season at Ohio State is nothing to sneeze at (wrist, knee, knee, knee). I know people want to believe that everything is unrelated or that it's all just a fluke series of injuries because they haven't all happened to the same extremity, but he has been brittle for quite awhile. Gah, now I'm depressed about his chances again.
If health weren't an issue we wouldn't even be having this conversation, but missing 2/3 of your games should make ANY decision maker pause and spend some time trying to figure out what he's really worth. At this point Greg is like an $80K jaguar that spends 200 days out of the year in the shop ... is the car really worth the money to keep fixing, if you actually need it to provide you with reliable transportation? There's really no easy answer to that question.
But Nik, I agree with you! I'm not saying insta-max him. I'm saying frontload, team option, performance incentives and other wise contract construction. Some knobs in this thread are proposing disastrous routes of waiting or worse low balling the shit out of him with the risk of alienating him or his agent.
It comes down to what is a championship worth? What I mean is the only way we win a championship in the next 10 years is if GO is on this team. He may be injured 6 out of the 10 years but in those 4 years that he's not we have a legit shot at winning a championship. Just my 2 cents but I'd be willing to pay him near max to make sure we have a shot at a championship.
A recent thought: I'm nervous about letting Oden become an RFA when Isiah Thomas is sitting on a pile of cap space like it's an ammunitions dump....
I'm just saying you can't dismiss those fears and reluctance out of hand ... finding a balance between the team's wants and Greg's wants is going to be a very critical negotiation this off-season and the people that want to wait aren't 'out of their minds' for wanting to do that. There is no right answer for how to handle him, it's all going to depend on how much risk the team is willing to assume and how much Greg is willing to assume when it comes to his financial future. Right now we have no idea how close those two sides are.
What's the risk though really to locking up? Is there any chance that money brings an FA to Portland? Given the last two summers I'd say the odds range between jack and shit of bringing in an All-Star or potential All-Star talent. That's the thing what BETTER move is there then locking up Oden? There isn't one. Just wisely construct the contract and pay the guy already. PA doesn't have much time. I'm guessing he isn't too concerned with paying. Oden IMO is our sole hope for a ring. If he's healthy he's well worth a fat contract. If not then we are fucked anyways and we need to reload in 7 years when LBj's dynasty ends. Oden on a big contract can only HELP our chances.
If I were Greg's agent, I would give the Blazers two choices: A huge five year deal, or a more reasonable three year deal. That way GO gets his big contract now or gets it in a few years.
The risk is that you could end up in salary cap hell, or worse yet, the rules in the CBA change and a hard cap is installed and you end up having to make really tough choices about who to keep and who to cut ... I do agree that a healthy Oden is our best (only?) chance for a championship, but I don't want to see the team make a panic move and overpay him if they don't absolutely have to. My hope is that he'll get Andrew Bynum type money, because at least there is a precedent for the type of contract an injury prone young promising center gets in the league.
