Guys Neil Olshey passed on to draft Zach Collins

Who can forget that Olshey was so hot on Swanigan, he promised him that he'd draft him with #26 if available. I have never understood why GMs do this. A promise might make sense to get an early #1 pick to skip tryouts with other teams, so that he drops in the draft to you. But it makes no sense in less competitive situations like #26.

 

And we should have known that Oden would blow out his knee, and that MJ was going to be the greatest player ever.

I find this sort on Monday morning quarterbacking total B.S., designed to make you feel holier-than-thou. Woulda, shoulda, coulda. 14 GMs passed on Giannis. 5 passed on Dame.

 

Much like the legal system making a mountain out of a molehill, with trivial "crimes."

 

Collins has zero offensiv game, and he's a vastly overrated defender by Blazers fans. He fouls like crazy. Swanigan will be out of the league after this season. The 2017 draft had potential and Neil fucked it up completely

 

But, but Olshey, Stotts, and this board say that Collins should shoot all the time from the corner. He just needs time to develop his great invisible shooting skill.

Despite having that bum Ed Davis, we needed height badly. So after Collins had played all of 1045 foul-filled rookie minutes looking like a fool, Olshey ran as fast as he could to give away our #4 PER player, Ed Davis (who if you check it, fell outside our full-season top-5 PER, after Collins was given Davis' minutes to "develop" midseason). Earlier in the season, people posted in awe, "Davis is going to get PAID. Can we afford him?" After Olshey dumped him, Davis got paid only about the same as Collins, yet some on the board excused Olshey as just saving money.

Everyone except Olshey greatly valued Ed Davis. But you see, Davis wasn't a shooter, and Collins had such great shooting potential. Of course, keeping both was out of the question.

I posted that Collins in 3-5 years would be where Davis was right then--if he was lucky. It was a shock. Local media reporters acted startled, too. Our weakness was at Forward, and we desperately needed any contributing big man we had. But Olshey values only guards.

Here's a recent Wizenheimer post about Nurkic nowadays getting false credit for Ed Davis' defense that season.

http://www.sportstwo.com/posts/4992802/

 

And in the same draft he picked Swanigan when there were guys on the table who were at least useful NBA players.

Blazers hit with 2 older players, but which of their "project" picks have panned out?

 

I'm reading Neil Olshey is decent at drafting. You'll find a fairly healthy portion of fans who find that debatable. But, let's say he is. I'd contend you can't be a successful GM in Portland without being one of the better drafting teams in the league (unless you're Trader Bob and I'm not sure he could duplicate his past efforts today). I'd agree there's a certain amount of luck involved with drafting, but it's well known in all sports, to increase your odds you procure more selections. Olshey values 2nd rounders as trade chips first, instead of a bona fide way to build depth and develop potential foundation pieces. In 3 of his 8 years here, we didn't even have a single selection, and I wouldn't be surprised if it's soon to be 4 seasons.

 

While I have been complaining about Olshey for years, I will say this much: the only one that's a real disappointment is Adebayo, and it's possible that a large part of the reason he's so good now is because of the culture in Miami, and if we'd drafted him he wouldn't be as good now.

Of course, that's another reason to criticize the front office...

 

Agreed. Now did all of these posters state the same clear objection immediagely after the draft? If so they deserve credit for being right this time.

But 3 years later saying coulda shoulda with a draft is a weak criticism. Out of the top 12 selections only 2 are clearly superior to Collins IMO. Most GMs screwed up in this draft.

The best GMs don't take the optimal player in the draft. Good GMs do hit rotational players more often than average of those draft positions, and I believe Neil falls in that group.

 

You believe wrong. To evaluate him, see this list starting in 2012, replace the guys he traded on draft day, but do not replace draftees he traded after they played here. With few successes over 8 years, Olshey is a below-average drafter.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/POR/draft.html

 

There is a vast difference between drafting a guy that was clearly top 1 or 2 on everyone's board and drafting a guy that didn't even start for his college team after you saw him play one game.

 

Here's the 2017 Draft sorted by Win-Share:
1. Jarrett Allen, 20.0 WS (22)
2. Bam Abedayo, 19.5 WS (14)
3. Jayson Tatum, 18.9 WS (3)
4. John Collins, 16.4 WS (19)
5. Donovan Mitchell, 15.7 WS (13)
6. OG Anunaby, 10.7 WS (23)
7. Monte Morris, 10.2 WS (51)
8. Thomas Bryant, 9.6 WS (42)
9. De'Aaron Fox, 9.1 WS (5)
10. Kyle Kuzma, 9.0 WS (27)
11. Lauri Markkanen, 8.7 WS (7)
12. Josh Hart, 8.6 WS (30)
13. Derrick White, 8.3 WS (29)
14. Luke Kennard, 7.0 WS (12)
15. Jonathan Issac, 6.7 WS (6)
16. Lonzo Ball, 6.0 WS (2)
17. Justin Jackson, 5.0 WS (15)
18. Jordan Bell, 4.9 WS (38)
19. Terrance Ferguson, 4.6 WS (21)
20. Wesley Iwundu, 4.2 WS (33)
21. Zach Collins, 3.9 WS (10)
25. Markelle Fultz, 3.2 WS (1)
51. Caleb Swanigan, -0.2 WS (26)
54. Frank Ntilikina, -0.8 WS (8)
55. Dennis Smith, -1.6 WS (9)
56. Josh Jackson, -1.8 WS (4)

Zach has a long ways to go before earning that 10th pick.

 

You can see the same by clicking on the Win Share column heading.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2017.html

 

FWIW, Dame wanted Mitchell: https://ripcityproject.com/2018/05/14/damian-lillard-draft-suggestions/

In fact, he hoped the Blazers would select Donovan Mitchell in last year’s NBA draft.

Lillard and Mitchell started communicating during the latter’s college seasons at Louisville. Dame spotted the youngster rocking his signature shoe and reached out.

Then, on draft night last summer, the Blazers traded pick No. 15 and 20 to the Kings for pick No. 10. Portland made the two-for-one swap in order to draft 19-year-old Zach Collins out of Gonzaga.

Three picks later, the Denver Nuggets selected Donovan Mitchell and traded him to the Utah Jazz for Trey Lyles and pick No. 24.

Mitchell said, “After I got drafted, (Damian Lillard) actually texted me and said that he was hoping I slipped to Portland. He texted me right after the draft and that was kind of crazy.”

Lillard confirmed the rookie’s words: “I thought he was going to come in and work out for us and we might’ve picked him. I just thought it might fall that way, but I really was a fan of what he was doing, how he carried himself and he found a good home here.”

 

Oden’s medicals had red flags all over them. It’s not that we SHOULD have known......WE DID KNOW

Also, MJ was player of the year, and people within our organization said he was a generational talent. They asked many in the industry who all said to draft Jordan. We knew, and didn’t

it’s not Monday morning anything. It was common knowledge our front office ignored.

same thing with Aldridge. He let the team know for almost 2 years he wanted out. Instead of getting something for a legit all star big, he left for nothing

 

Actually, I don't think it does. All GMs make 'mistakes', but some more than others.

I posted this in another thread, but it seems applicable here. Using Career Win-Share as a baseline, here's a look at how the Blazers have drafted over the past 50 years vs other GMs. 1.0 means they've gotten equal talent that other GMs have gotten out of their draft picks/position. 0.5 means they only have gotten 50% of the talent that other GMs have gotten out of their draft picks. 1.25 means they've gotten 25% more talent than other GMs....



Not a surprise. San Antonio has gotten 45% more production out of their draft picks than other GMs. Blazers are a respectable 5% better than the league average.

Breaking that down even further, here's a look at how the different Blazer GMs have performed -



Olshey's only at 83% of the talent that other GMs have gotten. His GM record may look better in a few years as his draft picks gain in WS, that is if guys like Collins can stay on the floor.

 

Everyone forgot that Zach almost lead Gonzaga to a National championship. He also help us to WCS finals with his play in the playoffs last year with his defense. How many those players you have mentioned made that so far. Zach had injury year it happens to any player and that includes starts. KD and LeBron last year and many more. Zach started out strong before he got injured he actually finishing the games at center not Whiteside. To me he is a key piece to this team to move forward. He gets high praise from the team leader in Dame. So don't count this kid out because of one year.