Harkless resolves after Crabbe decision?

The Blazers' team salary is at $104M. The luxury tax threshold is at $113M. I doubt that Olshey goes over the threshold to re-sign Moe unless there's a signed offer sheet with another team that he has to match.

 

If he really is asking for max..... wow.

 

Maybe you're seeing what you want to see, but the team had a much better record when Meyers was healthy (between his two shoulder injuries) than either before, or after. As I previously said, the team was 24-13, with a healthy Meyers, between Christmas and 3/14 (date of second injury) and was 20-25 the rest of the year. Advanced metrics also show that while Meyers is consistently outperformed by the man he is guarding, the team actually performs better with him on the court.

When exactly is that? Other than a brief slump at the beginning of last season (before his first injury), Meyers has shot the 3 at an elite level the past two years. He shot it at an elite level the entire 2014-15 season (.420 3FG%). He shot it at an elite level during the 2015 playoffs (.769 3FG%), and shot it at an elite level between Christmas and March 14 last season (.457 3 FG%). I don't see a lot to pout about when you're shooting the 3-pointer that well. But, if he's not doing his job for whatever reason, pull his ass. We have plenty of other bigs that can take his place if/when he pouts.

Again this really shouldn't be a Meyers vs. Mo debate. They are very different players that play different positions and different roles. Mo can really only play one position - SF. He played his best ball, by far, when he was playing the 3, both regular season and playoffs, next at Aminu at the 4. He doesn't have the ball handling skills or outside shot to play the 2 and he gets absolutely abused at the 4. He's not a very good rebounder and he doesn't have the beef to guard opposing 4s. Basically, Aminu does everything Mo does and he does it better. He's big enough to guard most opposing 4s and the emergence of his 3-point shot also makes him a better 3 than Mo. Turner will be our starting 3 and he's clearly a better all around player than Mo and Crabbe, a MUCH better shooter, will see minutes at both the back up 2 and the back up 3 in small lineups.

So, where exactly is Mo going to get minutes. Where does he fit in the rotation? Barring injury, do you see him any higher than 10th man in Stotts' rotation? Here's how I see our top 9 players:

Starters:

Dame - starts at PG, but also plays off the ball with both Turner and C.J. sharing ball handling duties. With Turner, we now have something we've never had really had since Dame has been here: two other starting caliber ball handlers/distributors. When we had Batum sharing the ball handling and distribution duties at SF, we had Wesley Matthews, a poor ball handler at SG. With good ball handlers at the SF and SG spots in Turner and C.J., we can always have at least one other good ball handler on the floor with Dame, allowing him to play off the ball more for more higher percentage catch and shoot opportunities.

C.J. Starts at SG and slides to PG when Dame sits out.

Turner - Starts at SF, but can also provide solid minutes at back up SG

Aminu - Starts at 4 and also gets minutes at back up 3

Plumlee - starts at C.

Bench (in order of anticipated minutes played):

Crabbe - 6th man that gets minutes at both back up SG, when C.J. comes out and at the back up 3 in small ball lineups

Davis - back up 4 and back up 5. He has proven, not just in Portland, but over the course of his career, he can play both positions, but prior to coming to Portland, was primarily a PF. Fr his career, his minutes distribution is 57% PF and 40% C. With the addition of Ezeli, I think Ed will see most of his minutes at back up 4.

Ezeli - back up C

Leonard - back up stretch 4 and back up center against large, low post centers. Both Davis and Leonard are insurance at the 5, in case of injury. The minutes distribution between Davis and Meyers will vary from night to night, depending on match ups and need.

So, with Turner, Aminu and Crabbe all being better options at the 3, where do you see Mo getting minutes? We have much better options at both the 2 and the 4, both starting and coming off the bench. I can see him getting occasional situational minutes as a defensive stopper against opposing SFs and SGs, but it's not like Turner and Aminu suck at defense and both provide more at the other end than Harkless. He will be our 10th man, but wants a max contract. As big as their contracts are, none of Turner, Crabbe or Leonard got max deals, and in Meyers case, not even close (about 50% of max). So, why does a guy who will play fewer minutes deserve to get paid more than the guys playing ahead of him?

He really hasn't proven himself on any kind of consistent level. He's been in the league four full seasons, and if you look at last years numbers compared to his rookie year, they are remarkably similar. ORL gave up on him after 3 years and gave him to us for nothing (a top 55 protected draft pick). I like Mo for the depth he'd provide and the insurance against injury to another player, but if the Lakers really are dumb enough to offer him a max contract, he should take it and run. I don't really believe they will, I think that's just his agent spreading rumors, but anything that puts us over the LT threshold would be hard to match for a 10th man. If he takes the QO, great. If he takes a short term deal, like a 1 + 1 with a starting salary that keeps us below the LT threshold and the second year at his option, that's fine, too. But, his dreams of a HUGE contract at anything close to max are premature, at least in Portland. The Lakers have shown they are willing to severely overpay just to get career back ups to sign with them. Maybe that's his best option (assuming it's not a total smoke screen by his agent).

BNM

 

Harkless has never had what one would call a good season. Good potential, but he hasn't proven anything. I know I may be out of whack on the new salary structure, but $9 mil this year with raises thereafter doesn't seem far off to me.

How long is the shortest contract we can sign him for and retain some form of rights to him? So he can prove his worth?

 

For a guy who moped his way out of the rotation twice only to have Dame drag him back into relevancy, that's quite an ask.

 

And if there is a signed offer sheet starting at anything that would puts us over the LT threshold, we should just let him walk. Paying your 10th man anything above $10 million/year, especially if it pushes you over the LT threshold, would not make sense. The guys starting in front of him aren't even on max contracts. He's done nothing in his four years in the NBA to show he's worth anything close to that.

BNM

 

agreed and even in this market he has not done enough, but if someone wants to max him them they can have him. I like MO but think a fair contract is 8-9 mil per, yes Crabbe got overpaid but he can shoot well and that is a skillset that in general brings home the bacon

 

At least we agree on one thing: Hark isn't worth anywhere near the max

 

But if there is no reason to pay it this year, why get into the much more onerous repeat offender scenario. At that point, it's not just about Paul Allen's money, there are other much more significant penalties that would impact our ability to sign players and make trades. Going into LT territory to sign your 10th man doesn't make sense under any circumstances. Given that C.J. will get a significant raise next summer, pushing us into the LT this year makes absolutely no sense due to the repeat offender penalties we'd be hit with moving forward.

BNM

 

Definitely, and until someone actually signs him to a max offer sheet, I call bullshit. I think it's just his agent starting rumors in effort to up his client's value. Neil is smart enough not to fall for that bullshit. The Lakers on the other hand...

BNM

 

Yep, once you get into repeat offender status you'd better be damn happy with your current roster, because the penalties make it exceedingly difficult to improve your roster. The whole repeat offender thing is designed to keep owners with deep pockets, like Mark Cuban and Paul Allen, from completely ignoring the salary cap. If it was just money, these billionaires could say fuck it and just spend away. The penalties make it harder to do what they want to do, improve their rosters until they are title contenders. In the case of owners with deep pockets, that's a much more significant deterrent than several million dollars in luxury tax penalties.

BNM

 

Agree with this. I don't want us to have to pay the tax down the line unless we are getting to finals but I also think (and hope POR Brass knows) that we need a consolidation trade at some point anyways. So Harkless maybe part of that down the line or may get a bigger role because someone else is part of that. Either way, we have time to figure it out.