FWIW, here are the BP numbers: Miller 1.9 WARP, .508 win% Bayless .2 WARP, .437win% Blake -.7 WARP, .384 win% I find it odd that their formula put Miller's win% in the same range as 82games, but disagrees so strongly on the other 2.
Actually, it doesn't. See this for more details (sorry, I don't feel like cutting and pasting it here). You have one questionable team influenced stat in Blake's favor. Most (quite possibly ALL) other team and individual stats are in Miller's favor. You are using a single, suspect data point to make a broad generalization that the team plays worse with Miler in the line-up. You're conclusion is erroneous. You need to look at more data points before reaching any such conclusion. BNM
Huh? I'm trying to remember the "we win" part in last year's playoffs. I remember Roy having phenomenal stats and everybody else sucking. And getting bounced in the first round. I see nothing different in the strategy Nate wants to run this year. ...and yet Philly took a team that made it to the NBA finals to six games. We took a team that lost in the next round to six games. Our team is far more talented. So tell me again how Miller can't succeed in the playoffs? Well jesus. If it's just about hitting three pointers, let's call Steve Kerr out of retirement and make him our starting point guard. Because I bet he still hits threes better than anybody on our roster. Weren't you watching when we ran 5 or 6 isolations in a row at the end of the game the other night for Roy/Bayless and we lost? That was with Webster out there to hit threes. We'd still have lost if we'd have 4 expert three point shooters out there next to Roy. Because it was pathetically predictable.
Okay.... my thoughts... A) Why are people getting so upset about Miller not playing the 4th quarter? He has missed a ton of 4th quarters and we've won many of those games. It started around the Phoenix win where Nate got really comfortable with the three guard lineup of Blake, Bayless, & Roy. It was working. And it worked last night! After sitting Miller for the start of the 4th, we went on a 25-9 run. But the Grizzlies grabbed the game back from us and then, with a little bad luck, we lost the game. Bayless missed an open three, refs fouled to call out of bounds on Zach, refs failed to give Webster three free throws, Roy uncharacteristically let Mayo steal the ball from him, and Bayless' free throw went in and out. B) I'm sure many of you knows this but it's important to reiterate that we aren't hearing the whole story. I know, from my line of work, that almost everything that gets written about behind the scenes at "Bones" is flat out false. Like 95% of it. All the stuff the producers say, the reasons they give for decisions, etc, etc, are false. And there are serious behind the scenes issues and conflicts that no one has ever heard about at all. So I wouldn't take what you hear ("Nate wanted Andre in Portland," "Roy doesn't like playing with Miller," etc) as the gospel.
I missed your response on this. Got lost in the whirlwind of posts. Every team knows what we run at the end of games, you're right. We're predictable. Teams also can't stop it the majority of the time, which is why we run it over and over. The ISO got us, what, the third most wins in the West last year. That ISO also had us, as of last weekend, in third place in the West with as depleted a roster as I've ever seen. It fucking works. It's gravy. And frankly if that offense produces a ROY, an All Star, possibly an MVP candidate, a 24PER, and victories, I'm pretty much down with it. As to the rest of your comments, I agree to a certain extent that Miller is crafty in that manner, and definitely can be valuable to this team if used in the right way. But, my argument would be, if you're wanting to include Miller into a fourth quarter line up, and make him the quarterback for say half of the plays, you're still going to have him for the other half when Brandon's quarterbacking the team, which again leads me to the liability that Miller becomes in those half court sets. What do you do about that?
Anyway, it's beside the point that Miller can't take us to the NBA finals in the playoffs. The point right now is that this team is hoping to get out of the first round. Maybe even to just make it into the playoffs. Our chances get a lot more slim if we want to play Roy iso ball for the next 45 games. Maybe that strategy gets us into the playoffs, but without Oden and Przybilla, we don't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning 2 games like we did last year once we get there.
Yea because it always enhances a players trade value when it is known they just got into a big fight with their coach.
What I find funny..in a tragic way...is that most of the anti-Nate crowd seem to be unwilling or unable to realize that most of the people who "defend" Nate would also easily admit that Nate has flaws and shortcomings. But it seems like whenever there is a discussion about something Nate has done wrong or right it inevitably ends up as a stat/BS fest about the player in question and how great they are. Bayless wasn't playing but he was a freakin' All-Star if Nate would just give him a chance. Miller is being made out to be an NBA god by some people in this thread, and that makes it a little hard to swallow their arguments against Nate...it's like they are just blinded by Nate rage. Was Miller better than Blake? Sure, he was. Should Nate have put Miller in as a starter sooner? Probably. But you also don't go around yanking your veteran players because they hit a drought. It's called showing a little loyalty and trying to let them work it out. Has Miller been consistent as a starter? Absolutely not. He's been better the last two games but he certainly wasn't consistent before that. Is it possible Nate is mis-using Miller? Yep. Is it possible Miller just isn't a good fit for the system? Yep. Should we change our entire system to fit Miller? Nope.
Yeah, it worked when we had the best 48 minutes of center in the league. You really think it'll work this year just as well as last for the next 45 games (plus however many playoff games)? Because from where I'm sitting, we can't stop anybody, we can't rebound nearly as well, and if we hope to beat teams we'd better be able to put more points on the board than we did last year. Roy can't play 48 minutes, and he really can't be expected to run the entire offense and take 3 charge attempts a night like he did in the last game.
