"Heated Exchange!"

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Buzz Killington, Jan 7, 2010.

  1. MARIS61

    MARIS61 Real American

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    Sergio.
     
  2. ABM

    ABM Happily Married In Music City, USA!

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    Actually, thus far, he's having a worse season with the Kings than he had with the Blazers last season. :dunno:
     
  3. Nikolokolus

    Nikolokolus There's always next year

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    By what measure?
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/rodrise01.html
    PER: 16
    FG% 43%
    3PT%: 37%

    Sure his defense still sucks balls, but offensively he's having the best year of his career in Westphal's uptempo, open court system (not that I'd want him back by any means).
     
  4. ABM

    ABM Happily Married In Music City, USA!

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  5. andalusian

    andalusian Season - Restarted

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    Given that 82Games.com give you W/L columns in addition to the win% number - it is unlikely that this the way the present the data, since the W/L values would be a lot higher than the number of games played (players get in an out of the game multiple times, especially heavy rotation players like Miller), and since it seems that the W/L values accumulate to the number of games played (or very close to it, which would explain games where the +/- comes to 0) - I doubt very much that this explanation is relevant to the numbers we are referring to - it just does not seem reasonable that it is given the raw data we see.

    Even if you look at his individual PER through the years, you see that he was, only twice, at an early stage of his career - an all-star level player (20+ PER) - and given that he had it playing on rather bad teams - it leads one to think that this is a case of a good player on a crappy team who has some stats inflated.

    My conclusion is the same - good player, better player individually than any other current active PG on the roster - but not the difference maker some proclaim him to be. I would call him a starter level player, even good starter level player - based on PER, but - there are plenty of those in the NBA.

    I want to go back to the idea that somehow Nate is stunting him - if you look at his advanced stats, this year compared to last year - you will see that his Usage% is about the same, Ast% about the same, TOV% about the same, BLK%, Rebound% - same, same. The biggest difference is his TS%. And that is clearly an issue of fit. He is much more of a jump shooter because he plays less with the ball in is hand, for the obvious reason (Roy needs the ball in his hand).

    I now go back to 82games.com and compare his shooting this year, compared to last year. He is shooting 10% more jump shots and 10% less close shots this year compared to last year - which basically confirms this suspicion. He is not as good a jump shooter as he is shooting close, the fit issue, playing in a system that is tailored around Roy - is the culprit, and the reason his PER this year is 15 instead of 18 as it was last year.

    The funny thing is, that Roy has gone through the same "change" as Andre, he is adjusting to playing with Andre as well - and he plays less with the ball than he did last year - you can see it when you look at his jump-shot percent this year compared to last year, again - it went up - but since Roy is a much better jump shooter than Miller, his individual production has taken a smaller hit - which is good, because Roy is the more important player.

    So - the system has been adjusted to incorporate Miller more, but is still more Roy centric than Miller centric, as it should be.

    At the end of the day, basketball games "count" based on the win/loss columns. We have seen, through the years, that fantastic individual production (using any measure you want - PER, points, PER differential and the like) does not always correlate to team success - there has to be a different way to question one's fit and/or impact on wins. I have yet to see a better stat than Win% (with a large sample size, for sure) to measure this.

    BNM (and others) showed, correctly, that Win% can be influenced by the players someone shares the court with (and against, I suspect) - but given a large enough sample size, and especially when you look at data from multiple years and multiple teams - I suspect it gives you a pretty decent idea about a player's impact on wins.

    If Andre Miller really is a "top-10" PG as some people seem to think, his impact, through a rather long career with a lot of games played, would have translated to a higher win percentage, imho.
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2010

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