Hollinger: Blazers Were "Unlucky" - Should Have Won 61 Last Season

I'm not really sure that's true, though. In theory, everything averages out and big wins should be indicative of winning consistency... But how does a handful of 40 pt victories tell you anything about the likelihood of getting a key stop in a 1 pt game? I don't see how it's at all relevant. I would be much more interested in our point differential once 30+ pt wins and losses are removed from the equation... I'm guessing that would yield a number much closer to the actual win-loss record.

 

Wouldn't you agree that a team with more blowouts is more likely to have less 1pt games? It isn't guaranteed, but this is where looking at the variance comes into play.

 

Perhaps the Blazers' slow pace just doesn't tire their opponents legs out like other teams.

 

We got out coached and out hustled. They wanted it more. They were the better team.

 

I scanned the schedule and during the regular season we were 9-1 in games decided by 3 points or less, which may surprise you.

In the playoffs I think you have a point, since we were 0-2 in games decided by 3 points or less. But they did win a 4 point game.

 

As I said, that would be true according to theory. But with a historically young team, I think inconsistency trumps most other factors... (The slow pace and high offensive efficiency in late game situations certainly played a role.) And as Erroneous Subterfuge just posted, 12% of our games were decided by 3 pts or less. Is that not inconsistent with all the blowouts?

 

I think the Blazers have reached the point where a successful season will be measured on how they do in the post season rather than how many regular season games they win.

 

My only point is that their deviation from the median might have nothing whatsoever to do with simple fluky bad luck, but could have actually had a real root cause like possibly consistently fouling another team's best free throw shooters ... I'm not claiming it because I don't have access to that kind of information, but it does make me wonder.

 

That's pretty much what I was wondering. If you are rested and can take a leisurely stroll to the free throw line, it's gravy. If you are wiped out, it's a little tougher.

 

i disagree. the rockets were 3rd in the west in point differential at +4(portland was 2nd at +5.3). i don't think it would be humiliating at all for the 2nd best team in the west to lose to the 3rd best team in 6 games. and when you factor in that houston was much better in the 2nd half of the season than the 1st(once tmac stopped playing) it becomes even less so(even with the blazers playing well at the end too). it was just an unfortunate case of the 2nd and 3rd best teams having to play each other in the first round. one of them had to lose and they weren't going to be happy about it.

i disagree there as well. are you suggesting the blazers being young had nothing to do with opponents shooting free throws better against them? i could be see there being some correlation to young teams being more inconsistent in their point differential(having more blowout wins but also more blowout losses) but i think over the course of the season that should mostly even itself out.

 

I agree with this. Those things are worthless IMO. Or if you're going to keep them, you shake them/lean them to the left. As they bring up their shot, you move them to the right at the last minute.

Or a bouncing wave behind the hoop. That goes from left to right to left to right and stays in the sections right behind the basket.

 

I nominate you to do this every home game

 

looks good to me, er i mean... that would be a good idea

 

"It seems unrealistic to blame this on bad free throw defense."--Hollinger

Funny, and it seemed obvious, till I read the imaginative replies.

1. "perhaps the team was fouling the good free throw shooters more than the league average." --Nikolokolus
2. "FT defense...is the fans...all it takes is some creative distraction." --Maris
3. "mental lapses that come from quality players who just don't have the experience to handle pivotal situations...As an example...[when] the smart play is to contest the shot and not foul...[the young player] makes the wrong play...because he lacks the experience to recognize a particular player's skill set." --Mook
4. "1) being dumb about who you foul, 2) poor defense v guard penetration (since typically guards have better FT%), 3) soft home court rims" --bobf
5. "Fouling soft instead of hard. If a guy gets put on his ass when he goes to the rim, his free throw percentage might go down a bit." --LittleAlex
6. "Perhaps the Blazers' slow pace just doesn't tire their opponents legs out like other teams." --Baracuda

May I add my own. The team seemed to play more close games than average (maybe that was an illusion). So McMillan had his players foul a lot in the closing minute. In that situation, the opposing coach makes sure his clutchiest FT shooter has the ball. That might cause Theory #1 above.