Hornets Exec: "No Deals for Paul"

Depends on the looming lockout. Nobody will trade for him on a one year deal if a lockout is looming for 2011/12 and he won't re-sign for an S&T to any team that doesn't make his cut.

 

I think Paul absolutely has leverage. You don't think that Paul can point to what happened in Cleveland with LeBron, and say to Hornets management that they stand to lose him for nothing in two years? I think the longer they hold onto him, the less leverage they will have, and the less compensation they will return in trade. The BEST time to trade him will be this summer and into the season before the trade deadline. If he is still on the team next summer, I think their offers will be significantly less.

Cleveland and New Orleans are not that dissimilar. If the Cavs had traded LeBron two years ago, they would have gotten a ton of value in trade. People would have thought they were nuts, but in hindsight the best move would have been to trade LeBron for young talent and rebuild. That team was built around James, and without him they are probably not even a playoff team next year. If New Orleans trades Paul now, they will probably get some decent cap relief and young talent. If they wait, they might end up with nothing.

 

They will get far more money from shedding 20 million + in salary then they would by keeping Paul and possibly even missing the playoffs this year $3 million and cash plus $14 million savings next summer plus more savings after that in a variety of trades trumps that. Also, trading Paul ets them get on with the rebuilding process via lottery picks in the draft.

Winning and deep into the playoffs isn't an option in reality. If they want money their best move is to trade Paul for expirings and young talent to start re-building process chemistry. If they want talent the time is now. Too much uncertainty with a lockout, potential hardcap and restrictions on trades in the new CBA. Their best move is to trade him this summer before the season starts IMO.

 

You would make a terrible general. The best generals know when to retreat and live to fight another day without sacrificing their army (CP3's trade value) due to vain hope of winning. Also this undermines your argument against them wanting Camby to create a winning atmosphere and training wheels while they rebuild.

Sure you could fantasize about beating the Lakers and run a business based on fanciful thinking or you could be realistic and save yourself money and expand your options by trading him now.

 

They never had any to begin with.

 

Exactly. CP3 might not have been able to pull this move last summer or even this summer if LBJ had stayed. He can threaten to not participate in an S & T ala LBJ and totally hose the team in two years a very real and devastating threat. Their leverage only decreases over time, I'm telling you if you think about it strategically instead of tactically you will see it. Think about the war (franchise over the next ten years) rather then the battle (2010/11 season and ticket sales).

 

If things worked like that, we'd be able to run a team with

Harris
Roy
Granger
Aldridge
Oden

Sweet. You should find a job with the Indiana Pacers or something, get them to trade us Granger for Przybilla!

I never made this argument.

 

You never argued against why NOH would want Camby? Maybe that was Masbee, you both have the Brandon avatars so I find it confusing on occasion.

You first part is just bizarre and makes no sense. I suppose you are saying we should be able to pick up Granger because the Pacers have no shot at a title. The difference is I haven't heard about Granger being disgruntled, demanding a trade and being an auto-max superstar who can walk in two years with one year possibly being lost due to lockout with no trades that year...

 

The lockout is going to be a lot like LBJ to NY trust me. The NBA has become a players league and we have gone well past the point of changing that.

 

Got news for you: http://espn.go.com/nba/attendance

Nobody was going anyways. I don't think NO will end up trading him, because I think they're actually delusional/inept enough to believe they can still trade their way to a decent team, but just wanted to point that out. And like idog said, if they hold on to him and let him walk, they lose the option of getting rid of Okafur or Posey's contracts by trading them with Paul. They're just delaying the inevitable and getting nothing in return. But I think near the trading deadline would be the earliest Paul will be moved, by then they may realize that their "plan" isn't going to work.

 

No, I'm not saying we should be able to pick up Granger. It's just rhetoric. 25 teams in the league realistically know their chances of winning a title are zilch to none. It doesn't mean they should rebuild and "cut their losses". For example, Utah had little chance of contention when Boozer left, and aren't much better off with Jefferson. But it didn't stop them from making the deal anyways. Unless you want to claim that Utah is headed by a stupid general who doesn't know when to give Deron Williams back to the Blazers.

 

Losing does that. The Hornets had great attendance two years ago when they were one of the dark horse teams. Last year Paul missed almost half the season and the team crumbled.

 

Slight correction - *Shinn* gets more desperate, if the potential sale of the team falls through. None of us know how the potential buyer feels about all of this. He could be saying "trade Paul and I will increase my offer $50 million." He could also be saying "trade Paul and I cut my offer $50 million."

In any discussion between Paul and the team, the potential buyer is the invisible third party. That adds a wildcard to the game and makes the outcome even less predictable.

 

The year before they were still 19th in attendance, with one of the 3 or 4 best players in the game. Not exactly setting the world on fire. Looking at their roster and all the good teams in the west, I think more losing, and therefore more poor attendance is in store for them. IF all they care about is money, I think it makes more sense to cut their losses sooner rather than later.

 

They can open up the bidding to any team they want....but I don't see a lot of teams eager to throw away a ton of talent NO way, if Paul indicates that he won't sign there.....

I would agree that the potential lock-out, meaning lost year could really force NO hand as well.......

Whether they want to or not, they may be forced to trade him...they may not before the season, maybe they wait until the trade deadline...but if he indicates he wants to go, if they are smart (not a given) then they will look to deal him for the best package they can get.....

 

In terms of trading Paul, it's a one year deal. They have until the trade deadline and perhaps after this season and before July 1st. That's it. No moves can be made in a lockout situation.

The NBA owners are going to the mattresses on this one. There will be a lockout, and it's going past the trade deadline. The two sides haven't been this far apart in decades. Both the players and the owners agree that the lockout will occur and it will be a long one.

But, I'll humor you. Let's say the lockout is short and Paul can be moved before the trade deadline in 2012. Who is going to give up big value for an expiring contract? He can opt out, so at that point he holds all the leverage.

How? He has the option to opt out. There comes a point where he's an unrestricted free agent. Just because they want to get value for Paul doesn't mean it's going to happen.

 

In terms of total yes, but percentage wise, they were at 98.7% capacity, which puts them 8th in the league.

 

I don't think you can compare a team lead by one of the best coaches in the league to NOH. It's possible Monty will be able to increase the value of his guys like Sloan, but I sincerely doubt it.

As to your greater point of me thinking that this league is becoming a bunch of farm teams and super teams, yes that is what I believe. There will soon be very, VERY few contenders and a bunch of also rans.

I don't think most people grasp how game changing the Miami team - and more importantly the LeBron and Bosh FA's moves - is to this league. As some have said the inmates are running the asylum, the players have suddenly realized their power via FA to play on the teams they want. This might very well be awful for the league, but the silver lining is as long as Paul Allen owns this team and we have Roy, Oden and LMA or minus one of those and add CP3, we are one of the contenders.

The league had a 8.5 on the richter this summer, and savvy teams are getting ahead of the curve and positioning themselves for the new CBA and also the new reality of super teams. Both players and teams should be very worried about the new CBA simply due to the uncertainty it presents. Portland is one of the most attractive teams at the moment, surely the most attractive small market team, due to PA's deep pockets.

If NOH is smart they deal Paul sooner rather then later. They may not be smart.

 

The point is, that in a dream season when they won 49 games and made the playoffs they still weren't at capacity in a small arena with one of the best players in the league. I don't see them repeating that season any time soon, and if their star player, once thought to be their savior, doesn't want to be there, I doubt that helps attendance either.

 

Agreed. It's surprising to read an article which starts out saying the Hornets will never deal him, then ends saying they might and will open it up to the entire league.

Great piece.