Houston's Opponent FT Rate (.193) is almost identical to Portland's (.194). But, Houston, leads the league in Own FT Rate (.386, or exactly TWICE their opponent's rate). So, two things: 1. Houston's fans expect to shoot twice as many FT's as their opponent (in general) 2. Houston uses "shooting more FT's than your opponent" (i.e., flopping) as a major offensive pillar So, if the refs even call the game even, that's putting Houston at a disadvantage. Expect Houston to shoot a FUCKTON of free throws the rest of the series.
Good point. Although it's something of an irresistible force/immovable object thing. They shoot a ridiculous number of free throws. We commit very few fouls. It's not a certainty at all that the axiom for the Rockets is always true and the one for the Blazers disappears at the first good shake. I do think the NBA is corrupt, and that certain teams get superstar treatment. What I'm not so sure of, at this point, is that the Rockets benefit more from this fact than we do. Why the NBA would favor the Rockets: The Chinese fanbase that still lingers post-Yao Houston is a big market Why the NBA might favor the Blazers: The NBA and addidas have already invested heavily in Lillard's stardom. Lillard seems to be filling some of the holes Derrick Rose left. Lillard and LMA are as vanilla good-guy type characters as you get. Howard and Harden are whiners, and they forced their way out of other franchises. Lillard and LMA are fresh faces to sell with interesting stories. You add it up and I don't really see much reason for the NBA to want to fix this series either way. Lillard's style of play is just more exciting than Harden's. LMA's style is boring, but also frankly more likable, or at least sympathetic, than Howard. I don't think it's a give at all that the Rockets get drastically more FTA's from here on out. Of all the first round series, this seems like one that ought to get called reasonably fairly.
I agree that this is a very good reason for the NBA to want POR to come out on top of HOU. It comes down to "story" vs "market size". What's more important to the NBA? Hopefully the story! Nobody in any other city will be upset if Harden or Howard are ousted from the Playoffs - everybody hates whiny floppers.
Also it should be noted that if the Rockets win, they're in another all-Texas series in round two. Portland provides a more expanded regional appeal. Come on Silver--see the benefit to allowing the game to be called fairly!!
I hope Stotts uses the bench accordingly, all the way from Mo and Barton to Watson and CJ if possible. Let no blazer guard pick up more than 3 fouls as a fuck you to the refs.
As a former gambler, and utilizing the knowledge I have gained over time, here is a theory. Whatever happened the game before in a series, reverse it. So for example....whatever the Rockets were favored in game one is what they will win by...plus what they are favored tonight. If they were are favored by 5 tonight and 5 in game one, they will win by 12 tonight....follow?
Work seems to pile on at the worst times . . like during the first round of the playoffs. So many thoughts about game 1 and 2 I wanted to post, but by time I get to my computer I'm guessing my simple observations have been noted and discussed. When I saw this thread i had to jump in with a thought or two . . . and what I am thinking for game 2 is that Harden is going to want to make a statement. He is not going to go 8 for 28 (or whatever) while trying to take the team on his back. The way I'm hoping Portland plays Harden is to give him the mid-range 2 point shot. I watched it a little in the first game where Harden would get by the first defender who is guarding the 3, but then LA instead of closing out on Harden gave him the shot at the free throw line but took away the patent Harden drive to the basket to draw the foul. I hope to see more of this. I also think Blazers should utilize big men so that when Howard gets the ball down low, a hard foul is coming. OK many thoughts on game 1 and the series but look forward to reading the threads on here during lunch today
Agreed on the big men. Seriously, I want Bieber to come in and lay the lumber on any Rocket that drives the middle. So what if he gets a flagrant 2?
Tons of rocket fans are begging for them to double LA and I'm just sitting here like "yes, PLEASE DOUBLE LA!"
Yup, if they're in the penalty and Howard is in the game then Leonard should be in the game too. Forget all of the "straight up" that's been drilled into his head and bring the arms down hard to make Howard try to get 1 point from the line.
Only if Stotts has diagrammed how LMA can easily pass out. The Rockets will be playing the passing lanes once they go to double LMA. LMA has certainly gotten better at passing out of doubles, but I'm still concerned about them resulting in turnovers and easy fast break points (hopefully no and-1s). We need to be prepared for the double to come from anywhere, and respond with the appropriate cut and pass.
Yep. Just make sure Howard doesn't get the "and one." But besides that, the worst that happens if you foul Howard is he goes to the line. Overall I think Blazers should be playing hard physical basketball. For me Houston acts tough, but really is not a very physical team. Their 2 toughest players (Bev and Howard) are banged up and I think Chandler and Harden can be pushed around a bit.
