Exclusive How likely is it the Blazers miss the playoffs through 2028?

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by SharpesTriumph, Jun 9, 2024.

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How likely is it the Blazers are in the draft lottery all four years of 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028?

This poll will close on Sep 7, 2024 at 10:51 PM.
  1. More likely (You don't think we make the playoffs any of those 4 years)

    31.7%
  2. Even odds or close (coinflip)

    29.3%
  3. Less like (You think we do make the playoffs one of these 4 years)

    39.0%
  1. SharpesTriumph

    SharpesTriumph Well-Known Member

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    The Blazers owe a lottery protected pick to Chicago (top14 protected). Thus if the Blazers make the playoffs in any of 2025, 2026, 2027, or 2028 the pick goes to Chicago. If the Blazers are in the lottery all 4 of those years the Bulls only get a 2nd round pick.

    Thus there is an incentive for the Blazers to tank all of the next 4 years - if that starts to become a realistic possibility. Additionally the 2028 swap with Milwaukee becomes guaranteed if the Blazers are in the lottery all four years.
     
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  2. Everything Beagle

    Everything Beagle Well-Known Member

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    Three votes so far, one for each option… that sums up this forum nicely.
     
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  3. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    Can’t give an answer. Depends on what we do this summer. If we ship out the vets, there’s a good chance it takes us a while to build back up.
     
  4. Whyachi

    Whyachi Well-Known Member

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    Portland is selling this to Blazer fans

    "the best part of the NBA, is watching the young players develop."

    Can they develop into winning program in 4 more seasons ?? I don't know, that's waaaaaaay down the road. But we can always watch the best part of the NBA if they miss the playoffs.... right ??
     
  5. kjironman1

    kjironman1 Well-Known Member

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    Exactly.
    I hope they don't in some scenarios all the while I also hope they do if they are going to really rebuild?
    2028 seems like a pretty long rebuild? Needs some clarity also. is this 2027-28 or are we talking 2028-29?
    Come to think of it now? They better be in the playoffs again by 2028-29. They also better have new ownership.
     
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  6. SharpesTriumph

    SharpesTriumph Well-Known Member

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    2027-28 season as the playoffs take place entirely in 2028 and apply to the 2028 draft picks.
     
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  7. SharpesTriumph

    SharpesTriumph Well-Known Member

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    You can give your best estimate now. Obviously this will be much more accurate or possibly change wildly with what transactions later happen. But we can all give our best guess now.

    If we trade all our vets for youth/picks its probably much more likely we miss the playoffs the next 4 years. If we keep vets or even trade a pick(s) for vets its probably more likely we make the playoffs one of those years.
     
  8. SharpesTriumph

    SharpesTriumph Well-Known Member

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    The Chicago pick owed makes this much more likely we miss the playoff all of the next 4 years.

    First the current roster talent level is pretty low, the Blazers were nowhere close to the playoffs last year so it seems pretty obvious that will also apply in 2025.

    Now looking at the last year in 2028 if it gets to that point the Blazers will have a massive incentive that year to tank, and more so if Milwaukee is a possible lottery team. The 2028 pick would be retained if the Blazers miss the playoffs and they would get a Milwaukee swap if they miss the playoffs. The Blazers could have a double shot in the lottery if they miss the playoffs that year. With Cronin pulling hard tanks the last 3 years after the allstar break I just find it very likely the Blazers would go that direction in 2028 with more incentive than any other Blazer season.

    So really it comes down to the 2026 and 2027 playoffs. Will the Blazers be one of the top8 teams in the west or one of the bottom 7 both years? Next years 2025 draft pick probably won't be that impactful to winning in their rookie or sophomore season. So primarily it comes down to Scoot or Sharpe becoming a near allstar in that time, as well as other moves to get some good starters. I hope this is the case but honestly would have to bet against it.

    If the Blazers do a deal with Chicago to get their pick back that would certainly change the 2028 incentive to tank greatly so that is another possible move to keep an eye on.
     
  9. Chris Craig

    Chris Craig (Blazersland) I'm Your Huckleberry Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    Not looking good for Chicago. That will teach them to trade us for future firsts.

    That said, I could see the Blazers making a deal with Chicago to clear that pick or to just barely make the playoffs in 2026-27 so the pick will be available the following season.
     
  10. SheedSoNasty

    SheedSoNasty Well-Known Member

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    If Sharpe and Scoot can’t get us to at least the play in in the next 4 years, I’d be hard pressed to not be disappointed.
     
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  11. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    let's be clear here, the play-in is NOT the playoffs...correct?

    it took 46 wins to just get to 10th seed and the play-in this season. The two teams that won 46, and didn't have HCA, didn't make the playoffs. it took 47 wins to make the playoffs

    I think the chances that Portland can even win 41 games in any of the next 4 seasons are pretty small. And this season, a 41 win team was 5 wins below 10th seed
     
  12. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    Blazers will make the playoffs their first season after relocating to Las Vegas.
     
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  13. SharpesTriumph

    SharpesTriumph Well-Known Member

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    Correct - the playoffs don't include just the playin. If the Blazers make the playin but lose and miss the playoffs their draft pick is in the lottery and does not convey to Chicago.
     
  14. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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    Need an option for "100% guaranteed"
     
  15. kjironman1

    kjironman1 Well-Known Member

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    Bad Dog!
    Go Lay Down! LAY DOWN!
     
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  16. Whyachi

    Whyachi Well-Known Member

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    at least the LVTB will make it easier for fans to watch games. The Root sports blackouts will be long gone by then.
     
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  17. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

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    LVTB? I don’t think ROOT Sports blacks any games out do they?
     
  18. Whyachi

    Whyachi Well-Known Member

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    I hear stories. Fans in other states flip on scheduled Blazer games, only to get the Root blackout screen.
     
  19. PDXFonz

    PDXFonz I’m listening

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    For the foreseeable future
     
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  20. PDXFonz

    PDXFonz I’m listening

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    Bad dog
     
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