How many titles in the next 5 years?

huevonkiller · Jul 13, 2010

Good luck Toronto! I want to see the NBA revitalized in other countries.

Master Shake · Jul 13, 2010

Ahah, I can't argue with that-damn. Touche senior HK.

Mr.Gunner · Jul 13, 2010

huevonkiller · Jul 13, 2010

Is Kobe going to average 35 points a game too? Since we're bringing up 2006.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=RjA6q

The Leader will be the guy who dominates the NBA, and this back stabber from Cleveland has the advantage.

Mr.Gunner · Jul 13, 2010

Its wade's team, not lebron's anymore. Or at least till Wade has a horrific injury, Wade means to miami what Lebron meant to Cleveland, he will have to settle for being wade's bitch for now.

Patriot · Jul 13, 2010

I picked three.

huevonkiller · Jul 13, 2010

Mr.Gunner said: ↑

Its wade's team, not lebron's anymore. Or at least till Wade has a horrific injury, Wade means to miami what Lebron meant to Cleveland, he will have to settle for being wade's bitch for now.
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He can't even settle for now because the season hasn't started genius.

Oh miami is very bandwagonish, when LeBron outplays Wade in the playoffs it'll be his team. And that'll probably happen since LeBron is better in almost every aspect of the game.

Kobe is still Shaq's bitch so I think you should worry about that first. His three rings mean a lot more than Kobe's two. Meanwhile these other two guys haven't played a minute together and you think this is Wade's team, lol great analysis. When Wade slows down or when he gets injured are pretty reasonable expectations over the next 4 years.

I'll give you another clue, the Mavs aren't making another deep playoff run either.

Mr.Gunner · Jul 13, 2010

huevonkiller said: ↑

He can't even settle for now because the season hasn't started genius.

Oh miami is very bandwagonish, when LeBron outplays Wade in the playoffs it'll be his team. And that'll probably happen since LeBron is better in almost every aspect of the game.

Kobe is still Shaq's bitch so I think you should worry about that first. His three rings mean a lot more than Kobe's two. Meanwhile these other two guys haven't played a minute together and you think this is Wade's team, lol great analysis. When Wade slows down or when he gets injured are pretty reasonable expectations over the next 4 years.

I'll give you another clue, the Mavs aren't making another deep playoff run either.
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You expect Lebron to have the same numbers as he did in cleveland?....lol. Sorry to break to you, it aint going to happen since he's no longer the star of this movie, he going to have to share the ball with the other 2. As good or Godlike as you claim he is, he was never good enough to win it on his own, and took the easiest route to try and win it. About Kobe, well kobe just won another ring without him and shaq is had a nice playoff exit, so how is Kobe his bitch?...but I'm supposed to reason with a bandwagon fan who went from Laker fan to Heat fan quicker than Lebron left Cleveland.

huevonkiller · Jul 13, 2010

Mr.Gunner said: ↑

You expect Lebron to have the same numbers as he did in cleveland?....lol. Sorry to break to you, it aint going to happen since he's no longer the star of this movie, he going to have to share the ball with the other 2. As good or Godlike as you claim he is, he was never good enough to win it on his own, and took the easiest route to try and win it. About Kobe, well kobe just won another ring without him and shaq is had a nice playoff exit, so how is Kobe his bitch?...but I'm supposed to reason with a bandwagon fan who went from Laker fan to Heat fan quicker than Lebron left Cleveland.
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Lol you're insane aren't you? No player will have the same numbers, that doesn't mean anything. Hollinger has already predicted their production. 29 PER for LeBron, 26 for Wade, 23 for Bosh. So suck on that a little bit and let it marinate.

What to expect from the new big three
By John Hollinger
ESPN.com

So, how's this gonna work anyway?

LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh all put up amazing stats by themselves for their respective teams a season ago, but it's inconceivable that they'll put up identical numbers now that they're together.

That's not necessarily a bad thing -- their shooting percentages, for instance, are likely to improve as a result of better shots and fewer double-teams. But the most interesting phenomenon will be what happens to their touches.

There's a bit of a zero-sum game in basketball when it comes to shots and touches. There is only one ball and only one player can have it at a time. As a result, combining high-usage rate players from different teams almost by definition requires them to use fewer possessions in their new environment.

To provide an extreme example, let's say we had three players who each took half their team's shots. If they all joined the same team, obviously they couldn't take 150 percent of the team's shots. They would each have to shoot less, and their new teammates would presumably also shoot dramatically less.

Something akin to that is likely to happen in Miami. Last season Wade led the NBA in usage rate, James was second and Bosh was tied for 11th. To give an example of how these things are normally distributed, the two highest-ranked teammates were No. 6 Kevin Durant and co-No. 11 Russell Westbrook; San Antonio was the only team with three players in the top 35 and pulled that off only because two of them missed big chunks of time with injuries.

Percentages paint a stronger picture. Last season, when they were on the floor, James used 38.2 percent of the Cavs' possessions, Wade used 39.5 percent of Miami's possessions and Bosh used 30.1 percent of Toronto's possessions. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out this can't hold up when they're on the court together -- even if the three of them were to use every single possession, be it a shot, free throw, turnover or assist, they would still have about 8 percent fewer possessions each.

Of course, not all their minutes will come together, and they can compensate with blizzards of touches when their fellow stars aren't joining them on the court. In fact, a good chunk of their minutes may come apart. Some of these will come when one misses a game, others during bouts of foul trouble, and others still because of normal substitution patterns -- especially since one presumes the Heat will seek to minimize the time both James and Wade are off the floor.

So what's realistic? I started by modeling the rest of the roster with replacement-level players with a usage rate around 15, which is typical for that species. (Among the players at or near that mark last season were Chucky Atkins, Matt Barnes, Anthony Tolliver, Solomon Jones, Jason Williams and Jarvis Hayes. For all we know, those might be the other six members of the Heat's rotation next season.)

I also assumed the scrubs would have the court to themselves for an average of five minutes a game -- this accounts for blowouts, foul trouble situations and random minutes during the second quarter of a back-to-back in Minnesota.

I inserted Wade, Bosh and James into the picture at 36 minutes a game, playing alongside the scrubs I mentioned above. In doing so we come to a surprising conclusion: The awfulness of their teammates may allow them to keep their usage rates near the levels they enjoyed when they were separate. So they may not need to dial things back as much as an initial look at the numbers portends.

All three would lose about 5 percent off their usage rates from a season ago. In such a scenario Wade would still have led the league in usage rate last season, and James would have been third. Bosh would have fallen to 27th.

The interesting part is what happens to their PER. If they don't rate as highly as I projected in my original analysis, then they may fall short of my initial benchmark of 61 wins. But the decline in usage rate should cost them only about a point and a half of PER even if their percentages remain unchanged. And, as I noted above, their percentages are likely to improve as a result of playing together.

If they don't, however, the impact will barely be noticeable anyway. If they do things at the exact same percentages and just create 5 percent fewer plays each, the Heat still project as a 56-win team using the same assumptions I did in the last exercise. That's not quite as rosy as 61 wins, perhaps, but still a clear championship contender.

And of course, their percentages are likely to compensate with increases to offset the dip in touches -- especially in the case of Bosh, who should benefit from plentiful feeds from Wade and James near the basket. If the effect is dramatic enough, their PERs could hold level or even increase.

So basically, the zero-sum game has much less sway in our evaluation of a Bosh-Wade-James partnership than we might have expected, at least in Year 1. That's likely to change as they get more talented players around them in subsequent seasons -- something that is a virtual certainty to happen unless the new CBA does away with cap exceptions entirely -- so we may see more dramatic impacts in the following seasons.

For now, however, I'd expect only about a 5 percent drop in usage from the big three. And given how much they had the ball in their hands last season, it's going to seem like a drop in the bucket.
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http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=LeBronHeat-100708

Nice try genius, I'll leave the stat predicting to Hollinger.

huevonkiller · Jul 14, 2010

Yeah I remember you, Minstrel tore you open a while back when you tried to say Kobe was on Jordan's level. You're just a Laker homer with a random opinion that can't back it up with substance.

Minstrel said: ↑

I'm sorry that facts refute your fandom.

His PER peaked several years ago and has fallen off since then, so yes, he's past his prime. He's still very good, but not nearly as good as he used to be.

The idea that Bryant was clearly better than Shaquille O'Neal, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett (in their primes) or clearly better than LeBron James, Dwyane Wade or Chris Paul today is not borne out by on-court production (or even by "reputations," as O'Neal and Duncan are often argued as the greatest player of their generation and LeBron James is widely considered the best player in basketball now).

Other than that, it's all BS. LOL

And the idea that Wilt vs. Jordan is a bad comparison due to position is ridiculous. They're the two players most often considered the greatest ever. This isn't football...all the positions do the same things: score, rebound, pass and defend. Different positions just do different amounts of each. They're all comparable, and Jordan and Chamberlain are the two most common GOAT candidates, based on dominance. Kobe isn't in that discussion by anyone rational.
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http://sportstwo.com/threads/160826-OT-Kobe-vs-Jordan?p=2345743&viewfull=1#post2345743

kobeownslebron · Jul 13, 2010

Zero.

Shapecity · Jul 14, 2010

I'm not sure how accurate those projections are until we see what type of offense this team is running and how fast Spoelstra can figure out his rotations. It will take some time for this team to gel despite how great they are individually. Another variable is how competitive their games are going to be now. This team has a target on their backs and the pressure will increase because of all the national attention they're receiving. Everyone is going to want to beat these guys and they won't get many nights off.

huevonkiller · Jun 22, 2012

Hmm it looks like 10 people don't know jack shit about basketball.

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