Hurricane experts admit they can’t predict hurricanes early

I think we had you confused with someone who reads the posts they are responding to. Probably not anymore, though, after this.

barfo

 

Exactly. If they look out the window and see a Hurricane, they can predict it quite accurately.

 

BTW

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_M._Gray

Gray is skeptical of current theories of human-induced global warming, which he says is supported by scientists afraid of losing grant funding[5] and promoted by government leaders and environmentalists seeking world government.[6] He believes that humans are not responsible for the warming of the earth and has stated that "We're brainwashing our children."[7] He asked, "How can we trust climate forecasts 50 and 100 years into the future (that can’t be verified in our lifetime) when they are not able to make shorter seasonal or yearly forecasts that could be verified?"[8]

Gray said those who had linked global warming to the increased number of hurricanes in recent years were in error. He cites statistics showing that there were 101 hurricanes from 1900 to 1949, in a period of cooler global temperature, compared to 83 from 1957 to 2006 when the earth warmed.[7]

Gray does not say there has not been any warming, but states "I don't question that. And humans might have caused a very slight amount of this warming. Very slight. But this warming trend is not going to keep on going. My belief is that three, four years from now, the globe will start to cool again, as it did from the middle '40s to the middle '70s."[9]

According to an earlier interview reported by Joel Achenbach, Gray had similarly said that the current warming in the past decades is a natural cycle, driven by a global ocean circulation that manifests itself in the North Atlantic Ocean as the Gulf Stream.[6]

In a December 2006 interview with David Harsanyi of The Denver Post, Gray said, "They've been brainwashing us for 20 years, starting with the nuclear winter and now with the global warming. This scare will also run its course. In 15–20 years, we'll look back and see what a hoax this was." In this interview, Gray cites the global cooling article in Newsweek from 1975 as evidence that such a scare has happened in the past.[9]
In 2006, Gray predicted a cooling trend by 2009-2010.[9]

 

He's a terrorist.

 

The way you can fool yourself into thinking the model is accurate is if you put in data from 10 years ago and get results that are what really happened 10 years ago.

I would point out that past results do not guarantee future results are accurate.

I've not ever seen where any of the climate models accurately predict the past given actual past data as input.

 

Since this is basically an AGW thread... I found some funny pictures that are worth sharing. These are of locations where some of the thermometers used to measure the temperature of the earth are located.

The data from these stations are used in articles published in peer reviewed journals.

(Note the proximity to things like air conditioners, etc.)