I can feel them coming... the Lillard Wars

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Ed O, Jun 18, 2012.

  1. Ed O

    Ed O Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    I get the feeling that Lillard is going to be the Blazers' choice at 6. I hope not, but I fear so.

    If he is... I predict there are going to be some pretty interesting conversations/arguments happening at least until he steps onto the floor as a Blazer.

    Why?

    • He's a shoot-first PG. That makes many of us nervous... especially those of us who remember Damon Stoudamire. :)
    • He is an older player. That generally means more limited upside.
    • He is from a small school. Players do emerge to success in the NBA, of course, but the odds are longer.
    • #6 is a pretty high pick, and it doesn't look (based on the mocks, etc.) that any other team would consider taking him in the top 5, so Portland picking him there would seem like a reach.
    There's a lot that can happen between now and draft day, but I think that a Lillard pick at 6 would have an interesting impact here...


    Ed O.
     
  2. Blazinaway

    Blazinaway Well-Known Member

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    I tend to agree and think he could be a polarizing figure on this forum. I really do not want to take him at 6, at 11 I would be fine.
     
  3. crandc

    crandc Well-Known Member

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    Does this forum need an excuse?
     
  4. oldguy

    oldguy Well-Known Member

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    Conflict at S2? Say it ain't so!

    Go Blazers
     
    BoBoBREWSKI likes this.
  5. Rhal

    Rhal Well-Known Member

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  6. 3RA1N1AC

    3RA1N1AC 00110110 00111001

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    the blood has been running red in the gutters for weeks. like the mother bird that lays their eggs in another birds nest, this fight would never live on sentimentality or what humans used to call "feelings". this war was born of instinct, of our violent nature, of the fact when we are left to our own devices, we will eat out the neck and throat of those who would betray us. and then this world just starved to death and started eating itself.

    the lillardians had been defeated

    war is hell
     
  7. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

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    So make a sticky thread so that everybody can choose side NOW and not later. We can all go back and look at which posters wanted him and who didn't. When he is an all star in 3 years or when he's out of the league in 3 years, we will be able to know who was right and wrong. Wish we had done this with Greg.
     
  8. BLAZER PROPHET

    BLAZER PROPHET Well-Known Member

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    I tend to agree with Ed O that he's the pick. But that's if Drummond isn't available.

    I understand the logic of the pick. He's probably destined to be an NBA starter some day and he's a true scorer. If he can run the pick & roll, he'll be a fine NBA PG. We'd be taking him too early as it fills one of our two biggest needs and he is clearly talented.
     
  9. Fez Forthright

    Fez Forthright スーパーバッド Zero Cool

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    Fez Hammersticks could average near 20 PPG in the Big Sky Conference.

    Lillard at #6 is as underwhelming as Nolan Smith at #21.
     
  10. BlazerCaravan

    BlazerCaravan Hug a Bigot... to Death

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    This makes no sense to me. To me, if nobody between 7-10 would take him, then 6 is a reach. However, if any of them would, and the Blazers want him, they take him at 6 and that's that.
     
  11. Blaze01

    Blaze01 JBB JustBBall Member

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    It SHOULD be a no brainer for POR to take ANY of Robinson, Beal, Barnes or MKG if they are there.....

    Drummond has question marks, no doubt....Knowing POR luck, I could see them passing on Drummond, taking Lillard and 5 years from now Lillard is a bench player or not on the team and Drummond is a starting center....

    But I see 2 tiers here.....

    Davis

    Robinson, MKG, Beal, Barnes

    then Tier 3 with guys like Drummond, Lillard and whomever else I guess

    I guess the question I have is if I were POR I would be looking to trade up to get one of those 4 guys in the 2nd tier....and maybe the cost won't be that prohibitive to flip flop with #5 or trade with CLE for #4.....I don't think WAS pick @ #3 is for sale and CHA seems to want a king's ransom for #2.....but #4 & #5 may be available at a respectable cost to flip flop w\#6.....Looking at how this draft is apppearing to go, I think that would be POR best route....
     
  12. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    Terry Porter was an older shoot first small forward from a small school.




    Okay, even I am laughing at that. Lillard ain't gonna be a Terry Porter.
     
  13. Ed O

    Ed O Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    If no team in the top 5 would consider taking him (which is an ephemeral thing to determine, for sure) then either there is incompetence in those teams, the Blazers are reaching, or Lillard just happens to be exactly the sixth-best player.

    I don't want a player to be drafted in the exact spot where his value lies. I want to get a guy who is more valuable than his spot.

    The Blazers wanted Webster. Should they have just taken him at 3 and been done with it?

    Ed O.
     
  14. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Gimmick-hungry yob

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    I go down as anti-Lillard until he turns out to be good. Then I was always for him.
     
  15. BlazerCaravan

    BlazerCaravan Hug a Bigot... to Death

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    Then acquire the first 10 second round picks for a single year. You're bound to get the one gem you need for cheap.

    It's my opinion that BPA in the first round is basically a myth anyway, that once you're down in "tier 3" (knowing that half of Tier 2 could easily be 3 and vice versa), BPA is half conjecture, half opinion, and 1/3 luck (adding up to an irrational total of 133 percent). We're not going to draft PF because we have one and possibly two very good ones. We won't spend 6 on a SF because we already have a starter we're about to pay good money to retain. BPA suddenly becomes "Best guard or center."

    Then you look at the centers and wonder if any of them at 6 are that much better than what you'd get at 11, and then you look at the PG's and whether the ones you like will be available at 11, too. But because you're not in love with any of the centers at 6, you'll reserve 6 for a PG. Okay, so now you're gunning to a PG that you can get at 6 but not at 11. Yadda yadda yadda Lillard at 6, some really tall guy at 11.

    Maybe Lillard at 6 is genius because he'll be Dragic's understudy for 4 years. Maybe Lillard will blow chunks because we fail to get a point guard from free agency and he'll lose confidence because the coach also sucks.

    There's SO MUCH other than where Lillard is chosen that will determine his value. And 100% of that value is not visible to anyone until he plays in the NBA. What if he gets drafted by Sacto and their system manages to make him look like a pile of poop? What if he falls to Toronto and blows up? So much of his value is not just lodged in the future but out of his direct control that "assigning proper value" to the pick is pretty much useless in my opinion.

    In short, draft the guy you want, cross your fingers, and pray to any diety you want that he blows up. Whether that draft spot was 6 or 21, if your guy doesn't blow up and some guy you passed up does, you're going to be criticized. And while some players are better than others, I think once you're one of the top 60 NCAA players, it's less up to your innate talent than to what goes on between your ears and in some other room that determines your ultimate fate.

    This is why I want more picks, not higher ones. Spin the wheel, and see what you get.
     
  16. South East

    South East Writing Team

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    Of course you want to get more if you can but if he is the next highest player on the board you have to take him. The evaluation the Blazers had was crap in that draft not the strategy.
     
  17. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

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    This is your last chance to pick a side!
     
  18. South East

    South East Writing Team

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    I am definitely on team Lillard....uhhh I mean I like Lillard more then Drummond. I think Lillard will be in the top 5 of this draft class when all is said and done.
     
  19. MickZagger

    MickZagger Well-Known Member

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    Team Lillard. Open to other options as well though.
     
  20. PapaG

    PapaG Banned User BANNED

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    That doesn't really say much, though.

    If Portland gets the 8th-best player at #11, and the 9th-best player at #6, That's a win, IMO.

    Lillard is the closest thing to Russell Westbrook in this draft, and although I've been sour on Westbrook in the past because I think he needs to defer to Durant, I'd take a chance on Lillard at #6.

    So, I'm pro-Lillard.

    Or Team Lillard, as the kids said a year or so ago.
     

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