In fairness; who really knew? It wasn't like anyone was actually following him through college. I bet even the people in Draft Express had no idea.
I liked his shooting and driving skills but somehow I totally missed how quick he was. And there is a difference between fast and quick.
I definitely blew it (even as I was couching it more as "wait and see", rather than "I don't like him!")... and some people were very enthusiastic about him. Props to them for being right... it's a great way to be wrong as a Blazers fan! (Much more fun than when I was wrong about, say, Greg Oden...) Ed O.
The thing is, nobody could predict Oden because they were looking at it from a talent standpoint. You can't predict injuries. Nobody had any clue that he was going to have three MF surgeries in his first four years in the league.
As poorly as he shot the ball, he still went for 13/5, and got to the FT line 7 times. I'm a bit surprised Stotts couldn't anticipate how his old boss may attack a scoring PG, though, considering they have coached against them together in the past.
Lots of people knew. Lots of people were following his progress through his last two years of college. I guarantee the people at Draft Express (scouts in general) knew.
Supposedly he did anticipate it, but he said he didn't feel he had enough time to properly prepare the team to deal with what Carlisle might throw at Lillard... at least that's what he told Quick.
I don't know why I didn't think of this explanation at the time, but it might help Ed O avoid future misapplication of statistics. The "age" argument assumes no knowledge of an individual's characteristics. When flipping a coin, you've got a 50/50 outcome. But if that coin has, say, a heavier side, those odds change dramatically. Likewise, the odds of finding a 4-year player in the lottery with star potential are as slim as Ed O believes. The problem is, once you factor in those known qualities that Lillard brought to the table, you no longer have the blind situation needed to apply the statistics.
If they knew then he would have been picked #2. It's really quite simple. He had no injury issues like "Roy" which lowered his value. If Roy had no injury issues; he would have been picked much higher. Lillard was overlooked by many scouts and teams. There was 4 other teams that could have gotten Lillard before us.
The "wars" were a farce, the few battles were lopsided victories, and the Lillard opposition has been crushed and the Lillard era has begun. May it bring many playoff victories and an eventual championship to the fine city of Portland and the state of Oregon and it minions of fans!
Oh my Laker friends all tell me that Lillard is a baller. They said it was make up for picking Oden over Durant.
