There's a bias against small conference players because putting up big numbers in small conferences is easier than doing it in big conferences, and because big numbers in small conferences are less likely to put up numbers in the NBA. Players that stay in college (older players) tend to be inferior NBA prospects. That doesn't mean that Tim Duncan wasn't incredible, in spite of playing four years. It doesn't mean that Roy should have come out early. It means that underclassmen tend to outperform seniors the same way big school guys tend to outperform small school guys. Ed O.
I don't think Barnes is anything like MArvin Williams, in fact I think he is a much better player....I think he was somewhat constrained by UNC's system...He has a great mid range game and great athleticism...taking him over Lillard is a no brainer, but in all reality he will not be there at #6 anyhow, so it is likely a moot point.... The guy who is looking like he will be there is Drummond...and he certainly has some serious question marks as well....but I look at his worst case as maybe a Kwame Brown? A serviceable big man....and Lillard's worst case is what? Ronnie Price, a combo scoring guard barely hanging onto a roster spot....both are risks IMO...better off with the big man....though I really hope it doesn't come down to that choice.... Lillard may be able to transition his scoring skillset into the NBA, not a given, but his best bet is there...but the real concern is can he be an effective PG? b\c he never really showed it in college...Being able to pass the ball to the right player, at the right time, in the right position is not something easily learned...especially on the fly in the NBA., which he will have to do...knowing mismatches, where a teamate likes the ball and being able to deliver it to him....these things do not come easily to a guy with a scoring mentality....
Well that's a stupid contradiction. You said you want to draft players slotted higher than the pick, than you say Dumars was only a good pick in retrospect had he been drafted at 6. LOL Good ole' 'cover my bases' Ed O. Boring and predictable. How about taking a real stance for once?
Faried also dominated big program schools when they played outside the Ohio Valley Conference. Lillard has never dominated a school outside the Big Sky. 2010-2011 15 pts 12 rebs 5 stls Vs. Ohio State (Sullinger: 8 pts 8 rebs) 12 pts 17 rebs Vs. Louisville 20 pts 18 rebs Vs. Florida
Marvin Williams vs. Harrison Barnes College Stats Pts: MW - 11.3 | HB - 17.1 Rbs: MW - 6.6 | HB - 5.2 Stls: MW - 1.1 | HB - 1.1 FG%: MW - 50.6 | HB - 44.0 3pt%: MW - 43.2% | HB - 35.8 Measurements Height: MW - 6'8.25" | HB - 6'8" Weight: MW - 228 | HB - 228 Wingpsan: MW - 7'3.5" | HB - 6'11.25" Max vert: MW - 35" | HB - 39.5" Bench: MW - 12 | HB - 15 Lane Agility: MW - 11.11| HB - 10.93 3/4 Sprint: MW - 3.17 | HB - 3.16
What did I say it proved? Zags mentioned the comparison and I was bored and decided to look up their college stats and combine numbers. They seem pretty similar to me, make your own conclusion from it.
I want to draft better prospects, which is the net present value of a player. That has nothing to do with how a player's career ends up except insofar as how it helps you determine what future prospects' NPV is. There's nothing contradictory about it. Ed O.
I am not sure he would have been a good pick as a lottery pick... and that's understanding that rebounding transfers, statistically, much better to the NBA than scoring does. In any case, pointing out an exception (insofar as a late first rounder outplayed his draft position) doesn't impact the rule very much. Ed O.
Fuck, lets rehash this again. Lillard dropped 36 on SMC who was a 7 seed! He had a double-double against BYU, another tourney team. But again, lets just skip those teams, because they didn't come from a power conference, so they weren't any good.
Don't forget to add that Marvin Williams got those averages at just 22mpg. Barnes got those numbers at roughly 29mpg. Barnes just doesn't do it for me. Both players have the same temperment as well, underwhelming.
As for the Lillard wars, he might very well be BPA at #6. The draft very well could go 1. Davis 2. Robinson 3. MKG 4. Beal 5. Barnes That leaves us with Lillard, Drummond, Soup Juggler types at #6, unless someone else shines in workouts
I'm not to enthused with Barnes, he is the only person i'd debate about picking Lillard over. I don't think I could pick Lillard over him, would probably call up GS or the Raptors about a pick swap instead and then pick Lillard with there pick. Anyone else falls to 6 and I take them no hesitation. If its Drummond I pick him and immediately call Bill Walton/Sabonis(Yea screw you big men coaches who weren't blazers!) and offer one of them a 3 year contract to personally coach Drummond. I dont' see Drummond really getting it together for at least 2 years, I think he would be a nice 15-20m big who gets in foul trouble but blocks a lot of shots and after he is taught to box out correctly has a very good rebounding rate. After 2 years a 30 year old LMA who is a stud paired with a Blooming Drummond who finally figured it out would be a Devastating Duo. Just gotta put the other pieces around them correctly to have a nice 2 to 3 year window of opportunity which unless your the thunder or spurs is about all you can hope for every 10 years.
While I'm not sold either way, with all due respect, Ed O (because I really like the way you back up your opinions with fact) I think the prejudice against seniors and small schools can be misplaced. Yes, because the money is so good, the top tier players are likely to leave college after 1-2 years, but often the guys who stay 3-4 are more NBA ready and more mature overall. Some are later developers; not all young men are physically fully developed at 19. Also, there have been so many good to great NBA players out of small schools. I wouldn't want to turn a guy down because Central Arkansas State didn't even make the NCAA when Scottie Pippen was there....or because he came from Division III Longwood College like Jerome Kersey. So, they may be factors to consider, but not overriding.
Why fear a "shoot first PG"? Look at R. Westbrook. (don't even try to say you wouldn't want him in a Blazer uni). His perceived lack of the ability to be a floor general was well chronicled. I'm not saying that Lillard is Westbrook, but don't be so quick to dismiss him as Damon Stoudamire either. Had Damon been able to finish at the rim we may have won a title or two. He was a shoot first PG that averaged 12 PPG. Ouch. http://www.nbadraft.net/players/russell-westbrook
The biggest difference coming out between the two is age (and that matters a lot when you're projecting player development). Also, Westbrook didn't play point for UCLA, he was an off-guard opposite from Darren Collison. Switching to point guard was based off of pure projection.
